Member Info for Nickderby

Even with 2018’s low production/sales of just over 2,500 tonnes Vametco generated $108m Ebitda. Very impressive! Just consider achieving production of 3,400 tonnes in 2019, which is still around 10% under maximum capacity, and FeV prices of say $100 per kg. As soon as Chinese New Year is over FeV will certainly rise from current levels due to the huge structural deficit, so $100 per kg seems reasonably conservative. Total costs for 2018 were around $33 per kg. These should reduce further with higher production, but I will leave these as they are for the purposes of this calculation. Under this scenario Vametco would generate $228m Ebitda in 2019! Quite impressive, especially when you consider the company is targeting production levels of over 10,000 tonnes pa in the medium term. Plus everything else we have going on! Imo, 2019 is looking rather exciting... DYOR of course :)

Coffeecups, any delays are always seen as bad news and therefore it was no surprise to see the share price hit in early trading.

However when you consider the additional revenues that the tantalum concentrate will add, it will be a delay that is very positive for the Company in terms of revenues/profits. You only have to compare the relative prices of tin and tantalum to see that.

The bounce back shows that there is very good support at these levels.

Nice bounce back this morning.
Maybe those who sold out this morning hoping to get back in at cheaper levels are going to be disappointed.

I've just try to buy a few, can't even get 100,000 shares.
Max buy is currently 25,000 shares. Whoop! :)

An article from last year....

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/first-tin-concentrate-to-market-q4-afritin-2018-07-30/rep_id:3650

I like this quote...

‘Tantalite, which makes up 10% of the concentrate, sells at $180,000/tonne'.
That will work wonders for the economics of the project!

Sale of by-products and lowest quartile production costs will ensure that profitability here is excellent once full production commences.
'Proven gravity-based processing methods yield robust economics'.

Tin in a supply deficit, that reminds me of another investment of mine....

Production may have been put back to Q2, but with the additional tantalum concentrate it is a good decision and more revenues/profits will be generated from phase 1.

Roll on Q2 :)

Maximum buy with II is just 10,000 shares.
Bounce time....

Onefc, yes it went inverted again.

Buys at 37.18p, below mid price.

A summary of the latest broker targets. SP Angel - 87p. This is based on FeV prices of $75 per kg for 2019,2020 and a long term price of just $45 per kg. https://www.uploadlibrary.com/SPAngel_JohnMeyer/Bushveld_Q4_Sales_EBITDA.pdf ARC - New target 50p. This is based on FeV prices of: $80 per kg in 2019, $70 per kg in 2020, $60 per kg in 2021 and long term prices of $45 per kg. However, their target share price increases to £1.36 at an FeV price of $100 per kg and Rand/$ rate of 14. Using a discount rate of 5% with FeV at $100 per kg, ARC have a share price target of £2.23. http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Vanadium-strength-drives-sharp-earnings-growth.pdf Fortune Mojapelo ‘The story of Bushveld Minerals is not yet half told’. 2019 is going to be a great year :) DYOR of course.

Good news Pdub. After 5 years here you feel like an old friend. Keep fighting! :)

Ophidian, yes the corporation tax rate of 28% is a maximum.

There will be credits for R&D etc which will reduce the effective rate to below 28%. Also, looking at the 2017 accounts there was a net deficit on the P&L reserve of just under £10m. This should give us some taxable losses to set against the 2018 profits, thereby reducing the effective corporation tax further.

ARC - new target 50p. However, their target increases to £1.36 at an FeV price of $100 per kg and Rand/$ rate of 14. Or using a discount rate of 5% with FeV at $100 per kg, ARC have a share price target of £2.23. http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Vanadium-strength-drives-sharp-earnings-growth.pdf

Endion, Interest, depreciation and amortization are minimal for BMN.
The main deduction would be corporation tax at 28% to get to profits after tax.

Can't answer more fully, just popping out :)

Bolgas, I'll give you that one.
I suppose you had to get something right sooner or later!

Lucky guess ;)

Welcome aboard...

If we take SP Angel’s 2019 post tax profits forecasts of $109.2m, that would give BMN post tax profits of £62.16m for 2019. At the current price of 39.5p, that gives a future PE ratio of 7.1 Plenty of upside to that PE level and profitability when you consider what’s happening in the vanadium market and the news we have to come over the next few weeks/months. SP Angel are using FeV prices of $75 per kg for 2019 and 2020 and long term forecasts of $45 per kg. I think these will be easily beaten with the current structural deficit. Imo, still huge upside here :)

Sales were 167% higher in Q4 yoy at US$60m.

FY sales were 143% higher yoy at US$192m.

EBITDA rose 320% to US$39.6m in Q4.

FY EBITDA rose 349% to US$107m for the full year.

When you consider the cash being generated and the news to come, the share price can only go higher from these levels. Exciting times!

DYOR

A very good broker note from SP Angel.
I particularly like their Vametco free cash flow numbers.

2018 - $94.5m
2019 - $144.5m
2020 - $191.6m.

Cash elephant! :)

Its nice to see them showing confidence with an additional 10m shares bought since the last TR1.

Golden Summit up to 65m as we already know.

Thanks.
Strange tactics.