Member Info for Nick1234

Excellent results. Pleased with the increase in the divi and the rise in the SP this week.

The worry on the general insurance side is that the UK market is 'softening' rapidly and rates starting to come down, especially in general liability. Aviva doesn't have huge exposure to PI, Management liability or cyber but rates are tumbling here. Even private motor is reducing by a few percent after some hefty increases over the last few years. Aviva's competitors have made big profits in 2024 too and want more of the pie.

That said, Aviva is fairly well diversified and can make profits across several areas. I'll continue to hold, it's worth it for the divi alone.

I sold out last week for a very small profit. Didn't like the look of the chart or the forecast for the UK economy and additional budget related costs. Glad I did as I would be in the red now if I had kept hold.

I will buy back when things start to look up as I like the long term plans. Short term though, WTB will no doubt be hit as a lot of its staff are on minimum wage and/or work part time so it is a triple wammy on wage costs.

From a quick scan this morning, there doesn't appear to be anything to get too excited about in that update.

Https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/ubs-bullish-on-aviva-stock-sees-direct-line-deal-driving-earnings-growth-93CH-3823700

Absolutely no chance.

In the very unlikely event that Aviva find a few hundred million down the back of the sofa it would go on paying down debt or a share buyback.

That doesn't seem unreasonable to me given the discount to the NAV and the share buyback that is going on.

If inflation and interest rates could start to fall a bit we might be on to something.

Sean, it all depends on Christmas trading. The Golden Quarter is key for B&M. With all the external pressures, economic slowdown, Employers NI increase, persistent inflation and interest rates etc it's hard to see how trading is going to be good enough to warrant a 30% rise in the share price. All the noise coming from UK retail is not great at the moment.

Hope I'm wrong as I am a holder here and also in JD Sports which faces the same pressures.

£10 hit!

This has been my best performing share this year. Still got more mileage IMO.

Yes that's right.

Fill year guidance maintained.

USA sales surging.

Good start to H2.

Remember, markets are forward looking. The positive comments about H2 are more important than the 1st Half actuals.

That's 4 broker ratings in the last 2 days with target prices of 750p, 845p, 750p and 750p = average of 773.75p. Or 37% higher than today's closing price.

Guidance maintained for the year.

BPT income higher than forecasts.

6-9% CAGR for the next 3 years.

Hint at larger buybacks.

And still a yield of over 9%.

What's not to like?

Interesting development. A couple of thoughts:

A combined Aviva and DLG would control over 20% of the UK motor insurance, not sure that would be considered to be in the best interests of the consumer by the regulator.

Prices in the personal lines motor market have peaked and if anything are on their way down. Are Aviva going for market share to boost profits in the absence of premium growth?

Surprised DLG have completed knocked it back and not entered negotiations.

Good to see Aviva on the acquisition hunt but not sure that this is the best use of available funds.

It's possible that the company has Kidnap and Ransom insurance that covers some or all of the ransom demands. They probably won't deny or confirm this because knowledge of such an insurance policy being in force can lead to these types of situations.

Ridiculously oversold.

My only decision is whether to top now to get the divi or wait till its goes ex-divi on Thursday and falls another couple of per cent.

Got to be said, she has done a cracking job since joining.

Like for like sales were down 1.9% werent they? The figure is in brackets. Although that is an improvement on Q1 when they were down 5%.

Phyl, hopefully soon and this time much bigger.

Lower again today. Bounce off 35?

Another 52 week low hit today.

Interest rates now expected to stay higher for longer which is not good for a REIT with a sizeable amount of debt.

Fully expect the BOE to reduce the rate by a quarter point on Thursday to 4.75% but I think 4.0% is the lowest we will get to in 2025 (barring a black Swan event).