RE: Weak Results15 Jul 2025 23:01
The parallels between this and Greggs are striking. Both share prices re down over 40% over the last year, both are vulnerable to weak UK consumer spending, both re Labour intensive businesses which have been hammered by the increase to the minimum wage and the increase to employers NI. There's an argument that both are ex-growth, although I think both companies would dispute that.
Very tempting to buy in to both shares given the low share prices, but both companies are very reliant on the UK economy and I'm not sure we can rule out further tax rises, and consumer spending will remain weak with GDP growth anaemic at best. If you did a Venn diagram of Greggs customers and B&M customers, I bet the cross over in the middle would be quite big, and that group are getting hammered left right and centre by rising bills, mortgage payments, childcare costs and frozen tax thresholds.
The light at the end of the tunnel is falling interest rates. BME also have a trick up its sleeve with the repatriation of it's HQ to Jersey which brings share buy backs in to play, probably in early 2026. I do feel B&M need to be more inventive, increase productivity and automation and reduce overheads. Price rises are hard to push through given the super competitive UK grocery market and a lack of disposable income amongst its customers.
I will be watching with interest.