Member Info for NicetoMichu

ps: interesting to see if gas price going up is well correlated to ppc share price up movement ( gas has a had a good couple of days and so has ppc s/p for eg....err maybe )

Thanks for your response happy sparrow and the best bulletin boards are a broad church outlining pros and cons.

This is a decent bb, but there are better out there in this sector names imho.

(Save.l is indeed a very tricky share and is that low for fairly good reason, although the latest update is solid enough to justify it going somewhat higher now. .. but this sector sadly remains so out of favour that any gains are extraordinarily hard come by generally, and hard built on or even sustained when they arise.. And where you bet your money is entirely your decision, of course. Good luck with Txp.. hopefully any soon to be implemented SPT changes help it quickly, I like my small Trin.l holding even more off the back of this potential law change and so may add more there in due course. )

I'm still bullish ppc.l on a 6 month view up to 2.75p even on current production guidance and likely poo/g price levels.. and the added bonus here is a pretty much free hit exploration well results in next 2/3 months which could add decently to s/p level too.

Altogether, this company is not now in nearly as bad a place as this s/p suggests imho.. and as that comes clearer in the second half of this year the s/p will come back somewhat, even if slowly dragged kicking and screaming up, including retraces.

Again, this now is ridiculously low at anything under 2p imho

far more encouraged to grow my small position here back out now.. just need to get a better handle on exact timeframes for implementation .. and the new government, once fully formed, would need to set out its timeframes for bringing forward that new legislation for voting on for me to get more of a handle on this .. ass both parties are for it I guess it would get voted thru whatever, and so it may be earlier rather than later in the life of the new government when it's brought forward .. eg late 2020 hopefully ?

great post Kev :-)

I think these bans last anything from a couple of days to a couple or weeks type thing .. so I expect 'The Major' will be back here soon enough Timmy.. I must admit I find him very entertaining, and somewhat insightful sometimes.. I just wish he'd post max 10 posts a day instead of 10 factorial.

to keep this above 27p this week I feel we need a major buyer... cometh the hour, cometh the man ?!

step by step.. and more patience still required of course.....

while you can never be near sure in this game, i'm confident this deal will complete soonish ... and I have no problem continuing to stick with this punk ish share.. and have fairly high hopes that the financial detail will put at least a small rocket under this s/p.. obviously terms in todays market may be only a little inspiring.. but it would still be a new and lovely paradigm here.. and the market cap here is still pretty tiny, considering..
imho and dyor

always on the look out for good meat on the bone is Malcy

I don't want to jinx it but I've got to say that this is there or there about's my favourite stock in my p/f around this time

And as pointed out especially in recent postings, this is still cheap or even very cheap by many metrics, especially peer comparison across this very in favour sector. And therefore I have high hopes that this pushes on up nicely towards 150p in the coming weeks/months..

So while I had promised myself that I wouldn't ad more over 90p I'm getting more and ore tempted to add more..

One thing to note is that this is prone to somewhat chunky movements up or down.. so instead of a straight line up, some punchy short lived retraces may continue to happen.. buying opportunities there perhaps.. and as the overall trend continues up like it has in recent times, then no worries..

This was a solid update but save.l remains a very tricky share and much patience may well be required from now forward even to get back towards 20p imho.

On a positive note:

payments received are ok through this brutal co-vid period so far and I'd expect/hope things improve at least a bit in that respect in the second half

Operationally this company is performing well and off the back of that it has clear opportunity to meaningfully grow its clients/revenues going forward in Nigeria .. and the diversification of client base will reduce the dependency on Calabar as we go, and Calabar becoming a a less significant part of overall pie is good news in my mind

The s/p at approx. 7.5p has a lot of bad news/low expectations built in already and by plenty/many definitions is cheap

'Bad debts' can be retrieved one way or another over time too and get written back ( as well as large intermittent 'liqudiity injections' into the national grid participants jigsaw, the Nigerian government has, over time, other ways of rewarding loyal players in this jigsaw too )

Saves borrowing is held with Nigerian banks who are intimately involved in the politics and the complex O&G game rules in Nigeria (And Save.l management seems well connected and in favour in the politics too)

On a negative note:

Invoice arrears and bad debts will remain somewhat meaningful problem at least for a good while yet I expect

I don't see this as an acquisition target for a big player in the next 12 months at least (assets look very strong on paper but getting paid in Nigeria remains very tricky, especially around this low oil price time and probably for at least a good while to come, and especially for all participants in the end to end of the national grid jigsaw. And there are generally lots of cheap to buy assets available in the O&G space the world over )

Niger development is likely more a 2022 thing now

Altogether, instead of my recent 3p to 30p guesstimate range for rest of year save.l s/p performance, off the back of this update, i'll now go with 6p to 20p (and 10p to 35p as my 2021 save.l s/p range guesstimate)

Hi back bigsmoke and great to see you involved here!

Us both diversifying somewhat - or even a lot - away a lot from O&G is not a bad idea I'd suggest ? :-)

I've added a little more here this morning and it's a pity I don't have much spare in the betting pot right now as I broadly agree with you that this is as cheap as chips now.. (broadly only a major market sell off would affect all small caps stocks to an extent though .. and that's of course possible in coming weeks /months )

My ideal trading strategy here would be to pile into this in the 55p-65p range and look to start selling down slowly from 80p.. but as that's not a big range for such a stock I'd need to have a punchy size bet here at those low levels.. and alas my pot needs some sales elsewhere to replenish it at this time.. so i'll end up small only in here in 55p-65p I expect

I see major_buyer as the type who has A LOT of monikers over his time on LSE BB's :-)

If he's still looking in I'd like to suggest a few more that would clearly be worth considering by him for his latest creations:

minor_buyer
minor_hold
major_hold
minor_seller
major_ seller

Altogether, Major_buyer was some buyer for one buyer and, at very least, high on life.. imho

I'm relieved and would categorise this as an overall good update and in the circumstances I'd go as far as even a bit better than good.. off the back of this update the s/p is clearly too low now imho ...it's slow to move up at start of today granted but hopefully when word gets out more widely this s/p move on up decently going forward.. director buys would absolutely help too (if the audit 2019 is still at final completion stage, directors may still be in a closed period for a while yet ? )

agreed.... and ditto re me and my bed...and well said altogether in that last post Tier..

''You can do all the research in the world, but if management decides not to tell the truth there’s nothing you can do.''

If you or I had done all the research in the World Tier, then we might have better understood the significant previous/current non payment issues thru. distribution, generation, mid steam and upstream across the whole national grid jigsaw in Nigeria ?

If I had for eg understood in December what I - think I - understood even pre co-vid in Feb then i would very likely have adopted a different betting strategy here .. bit I didn't and I kinda forgive myself for three reasons:

The combined brains of AK and Standard Life/Aberdeen, Schroders, Fidelity , L&G etc were ok with going ahead with this deal only a few months ago and so I just took my chances that they know what they're doing.
And
There are excellent industry/company knowledgeable posters on this bb who didn't point to such issues earlier so it's unlikely i would have picked them up earlier of my own volition anyway
And
Many including myself massively underestimated the seriousness of Co-Vid in most every way

( PS; Ironically 'The Cable' publication has maybe given me more key insights than anything else I've read.... IF what I've read there is accurate.. but it takes time to establish if their reporting was/is accurate .. and I'm more inclined to think it is now as they were probably right in Dec re o/s invoices from Calabar from earlier that 2019 year.. but the Co. and its financiers knew all about these ahead of completing the asset purchases and it still did. Also, and importantly, actual cash collections as reported by Save.l from deal completion to May seem at least decent altogether.. and my guess is that Invoices were paid to a large extent at least by Calabar in Oct. Nov and Dec 2019 at least.. and maybe/hopefully some/plenty more in 2020 too.. )

they've only been taken ownership of Nigeria assets 7-8 months ago.. and co-vid is a massive financial problem the world over, especially in Nigeria... so while I agree with Tier that they - very - likely have meaningful issues getting paid by Calabar at least, that doesn't surprise most here and some/plenty of that is in the share price already.

Generally, if they had good news I expect we would have heard it loudly by now, but average or bad news is manageable here via a lot of possible different mechanisms too.... and this company can of course still thrive with time.

The lack of posting here shows what an unloved low profile stock this is.

And I didn't do that below - Feb dated - post planned position build out here and indeed panic sold out the small position I had in march - co-vid - market sell off in 70's p. I'm thankful I took this course of action now, as this has come off punchily from 80-90 p range it was at early this year...

BUT.. when I saw the - in the co-vid circumstances - generous dividend announcement today and the mention of the groups strong financial position and the fact nearly all its staff are now back working this feels a pretty compelling bet now in the 55- 60p range...

Great dividend yield and when many other stocks have recovered plenty from their March sell off lows this has not. I do however accept this has been a tricky stock with a very mixed history and as times are now so uncertain I'll go just with buy instead of strong buy here.. and i'l look to grow out my position here only somewhat and only slowly in second half of 2020

The forward output guidance here for the second half was ok and certainly does not justify this extent of sell down here in recent days, in my mind. and generally this share price is awfully low at under 2p I feel.. and so this recent weakness off the back of an ok/decent RNS is shocking to me.. I expected it to stay broadly around 1.8p for eg

I agree with razoba that volume selling is a problem that has generally been slow to go away here.. and I now guess the origin of that volume is more fundamental than alienated primary bid participants from recent raise exercise there.

I think it has been suggested on this bb somewhat regularly before that there has been a slow unwind of a decent size position holder ongoing for a long while here now.. so it's still ongoing perhaps.. and Schroders were talked about here in that context prior to the natural re-adjustment of % held off the back of the latest Trafigura raise participation.

But the source of recent selling remains far from clear, granted.

If its defo. not Schroders my next guess would be Michinoko Limited... they were a pain in selling down slowly but surely in Amerisur.. TR1 's will eventually tell who .. but they are often slow to come out if an ongoing slow burn sale exercise..

Whatever , this share price performance is somewhere approaching horrendous, altogether.. and the current levels are now just too low, in any context, imho.

I expect this is likely to drop towards placing price in coming days /weeks .. but the very entertaining thing about this game is that anything can happen any time, particularly around news flow..

This share has been very good to me overall and so I want to be in it in meaningful size again ...but my position now is very small.. great if we get to see a major buyer to help support this above 30p and then I'd be happy to add back in the 30 p to 40p range .. otherwise i'll hope to add a decent chunk back in the 25p to 30p range.. Are you aware of any major buyer at this level major buyer ? Or perhaps, given the enormous amount of big swinging you've been doing on this bb, you're not just a major buyer at higher levels but an even majorer buyer at lower levels too ! That would be useful to support this doggy for sure !

Buy low.. Sell high

I remain long and strong here.. and open to adding more around 23p too.. and a lot more if this goes back to sub 20p... surprised if it does as In my mind the potential here is very large indeed.... speaking of very large indeed, great to have Johnny Durex on board too.. I expect he's taken a long hard look at symphony before entering.. and not one to sp+nk his cash away either. I'd guess !

my gut feeling is that this share could trade anywhere in the range of 3p to 30p for the remainder of this year.. given that and given that it's already at a lowly 7.5p as I type, I'm ok with hanging in for the medium term and hoping for the best over the piece....

ps: it's this years accounts that interests me far more than last years.... and even if there are serious issues with certain client invoice payment arrears so far this year - and there is more to Save.l than the Calabar client too - there are still lots of options here.. including partial payment guarantees, debt repayment flexibility and a brilliantly blue chip institutional investor base...

hopefully patience is a virtue here.. but it's all betting and DYOR