Member Info for NicetoMichu

my 10,000 + % rise today here today is incorrect.. please

This time next year Rodney.. you know it makes sense !

So that must make Yemen the final but one frontier for rags to riches oil then ? :-)

I'm in a similar boat to you grshaw.. but not fully out of this, as you currently are .. (I had sold down 2/3's ish of my holding but couldnt resist selling more as this got to and went below my current average today.. so i've now only got a token 3k gbp left in this .. versus 15k ish gbp at peak bet size.. but I've gone from meaningfully - per cent wise- down on paper to small profit booked via trading in that journey..and I do understand that you've done far better than me in similarish trading context.. and fair play.. )

But I still like this share and would be plenty open to going back to 7 to 10k gbp bet region here.. but am trying to time adding back decently/well.. the pace at which this has re traced to 38p ish has surprised me a little but not shocked me.. and my latest guess is this could go back to the 30p area in coming weeks.. but who knows really, granted.. still, you have to take a view.. so I'd look to start adding back by small increment at 32p ish - if it goes that low, it may not - is my latest thinking.. (and small increment adds in case it subsequetly went back towards mid 20's again even.. i hope it doesn't )

That's my bad to very bad case scenario, not worst case, Cygnus

I don't do best or worst case scenarios as a rule.. as they're outliers that are rarely relevant to the real world.

I have decent, good and very good case scenarios in mind too .. but will not elaborate on those as many here fire out higher/much higher valuations regularly anyway and so such scenarios have already been done ad infinitum here.

My bad to very bad case xtr.l overall valuation in 2023 sees Bushranger deemed non aligned with xtr strategically - eg too big - and even if poc is slow to pick up in 2023 and no more drilling deemed appropriate in early /mid 2023 - eg leave that as carrot for the next owner - then this could readily be sold on to a small mid tier explorer in 2023 for 10m gbp plus.. which roughly equates to 1.25 to 1.5p plus area per share
Mozambique Gold I value at somewhere between 2.5p and 5p, and this valuation becoming clearly visible from monthly revenues from there by earlyish 2023
(Other Africa assets - eureka etc- might have some potential on sale value in the future too but i'll go with zero anyway)
So I see this share at 4p ish as xtr.l bad to very bad case value in 2023.
And even allowing for CB making a mess of expectation management as a rule, I still think this should be 3 p ish now..
So I'm happy to top up anywhere in the 2 to 2.5p area.

Fair play CB... and Bushranger is already a decent to good resource in my mind now.. and with lots of potential to add further tonnage too..

Generally, the market valuing Bushranger at nearish zero is farcical imho.. So an easy top up for me now as this share price is far too low for the stable of assetS that xtr.l has.. and more top ups to come for me as we go too.. especially including my strong view that poc is very likely to rise in 2023 and beyond too...

imho & dyor

The price falling again this morning supports your post of Saturday John, fair play.

(charting for such low profile illiquid shares is a waste of time imho.. granted, i'm very sceptical about charting generally too .. but each to their own)

I remain pretty - meaningfully even - confident on good news here around y/e ( maybe a first RNS pre chrimnbo too even ) .... and such low profile shares are all about good news putting it on peoples radars towards new participants coming on board .. as well as existing holders adding (or those who have sold out giving it another chance...)

I think sub 8p here is a steal and so am happy to keep small topping up around these levels... indeed just did another top up now.

Current s/p movements are on small numbers of smallish value trades and so little to be gleaned from them either way imho..

If the product is as stimulating as the quality ramping here this arbo is, then here's to a real winning performance from fum.l in 2023 !
(PS: what username are you going by these days Ananda?)

Pretty fair point Callit.
But Africa comes only in varying degrees of glaciality imho

(Also, the primary reason a licence gets awarded should be - this is Africa .. so it may well not be granted.. and that might even work for zen.l - a belief that good implementation is as likely as possible.. Zen.l's relevant case study implementations are Azerb and Tunisia )

i'd give that 12.10 post by Ezhik two tick ups if I could..

While I could never fault Hedgehogs content quality - excellent as a rule - there's no way i'd tick that post of his up.. So unbalanced, he's just getting more and more rampy imho.. and that from a rampy starting position :

1) Whether zen.l can do any more in any given new licence you have no real idea..
2) More importantly, that's not the primary point, the primary point is: if the countries authorities are so glacial in doing anything ever whatever then it's bad strategy to look to go there in the first instance ?!

indeed Cygnus.. and here's very much hoping it is .. but it may not be either.. so 2 or 3 million USD more for an Ascot focused further drilling exercise would indeed be fine by me... but maybe no more spend on Bushranger exploration after that full stop

Thanks for posting Andrew and good interview CB.. I'm reasonanbly excited by this and very excited by Fair Bride and think the current s/p is joke low now ..
(The Market Cap here is currently only approx 15m Gbp... And I will be putting my money where my mouth is by increment from soon enough on forward..)

PS: Lets not forget that Bushranger is too big a beast to fit with the companies existing stated strategy.. so CB needs to examine all options comprehensively before committing too much more to further Bushranger drilling imho..that said, 2 or 3 million USD more for an Ascot focused further drilling exercise would be fine by me still though

I've added some more.. put simply, this gives me a hard +n

I've kept approx a third of my holding here as I conceptually like this share a lot... but I do understand that this is a left field proper shock for many and so some 'punchy' selling and little buying naturally occurred this arbo.. and MM 's will bring down the price hard as a rule in such circumstances.. and so discretion felt the better part of valour to me.. especially as it has been a brutal journey here already for quite some time for many, including me

Generally, they've already said that a raise wasn't coming in the short term.. so going that path now would annoy many too and would knowck the s/p plenty too, fairly likely..

Also I guess the loan became readily/immediately available on 'decent' terms off the back of the recent contract announcments and you never want to end up against the gun a few months down the line so better err on the side of caution now.. and they don't have to draw down all of it if you don't want to either.

Finally, I get that if they had a slower few months on the orders front early next year and felt a raise was appropriate then, then that option remains there for them then in Spring, while sticking with their word of no raise in the short term of end 2022 early 2023 ..so another hedge in having that there still as a later option, if required. (it may not be required at all of course)

PS: Re ''Invinity also continues to actively manage its cost base as the Company progresses towards becoming operationally profitable.''
There's a short term hit with redundancy payments now to lead to reduced costs down the line for eg

wanted to buy more of these this arbo but could only get a quote to buy for very small size .. eg sub 1k gbp buy .. (else would have had to take my chances for an 'at best') ...So took a few and will likely come back for more soon..
Generally, if/when there is good news dropped here I can see how this s/p could motor on up very smartly
IMHO & DYOR

Good post BoroMad and not just because my Dad supported Boro for 50 years plus :-)

I like CB a lot, not least his have a go spirit, and have defeneded him here a lot too but I must admit the way he has - or perhaps has'nt I should say - expectation managed this so far has shocked even me.

He got too excited off the back of early drilling results and then chose not to somewhat manage down expectations by increment as we went ....for reasons best known to himself is all I can offer re his reasoning for this.. but Bushranger is still a decent to good prospect imho.. and for the market to effectively attribute zero value to it is a significant overaction .... but CB needs to take a meaningful part of the blame for that.. all imho

I've just seen an earlier Steve (Austin) post smewhat to that end now...Apols..

The macro point still stands: Good costs estimation are equally as important as good revenue estimation in reaching good economics of mining conclusions..

Steve Mocal has been excellent in feeding back on potential flaws on used project implementation costs in Steve -Austin's - analysis

If your costs side estimates are markedly too high then it massively undermines your overall conclusions Steve (Austin)?

Apols. in advance if I've missed your post(s) meaningfully coming back on this Steve Mocal feedback, Steve (Austin)?

"Even Barrick... along with Rand Gold, if you look back in history, it's not the deals that have created the value, it's the continued ability to add ounces after the transaction".

Quote from Mark Bristow (Barrick CEO) in a recent Sarah Lowther interview

Applies equally to Copper etc as Gold no doubt...and that's a big tick box in my mind for Bushranger having significant on sale value for xtr.l

I dont think deramping is going to work well as a specialism for you Mkx007.. maybe you should buy some of these and then try ramping here instead