RE: Had a reply from18 May 2021 19:44
Keepwell. Look back at July 2019 presentations which had a lot of coverage of water and was the start of the perched thesis I think. The OWC levels were assumed to deeper and the water dismissed as perched because any other conclusion could only mean the OWC was higher. Fast forward less than 2 years and 7z is watered out and 6 has increased water cut so the only conclusion is that the water was never perched at all but that the wells were drilled just above the real OWC.
The original CPR was fatally flawed and in some respects should never have been commissioned with incomplete data especially in a reservoir network that was new to the area and not well understood where there are other similar plays at the other side of the world.
The producing wells fill in the missing piece of the jigsaw, augmented by the other previously poor E&A wells. All Dr Trice succeeded in doing was slowly but surely home in with the tail of the donkey to the sweeter parts of the reservoir with 7z and 6 which were in the dome of the reservoir and in the only place meaningful volumes of oil were trapped. But sadly those volumes are being replaced with water and the dome isn't anything like as big as the CPR suggested outwith the structural closure.
This is all a real shame as many people have lost significant sums of money. I take no pleasure describing it like it is, but I do take umbrage with idiots denying the facts that the wells are displaying as if it's some sort of conspiracy.