Member Info for NGR1616

Janiax, in order to achieve that value they will need to drill a new well. If they did I expect that to be Lincoln not Lancaster. They will need to align the FPSO contract and have Spirit on board too. It's possible, but nothing is a given in this game with this outfit. Alternatively they could work over 6 (pointless in my opinion) or use free cash to invest somewhere else so they continue to have revenue as currently 7z is on a downward trajectory.

fandg2 that's a sore one! I hope you manage to recover your losses somehow. A salutary lesson for all.

Large oil companies are somewhat 'protected' when a individual well or reservoir encounters problems that were not anticipated. In HUR's case they are very exposed to such events, as are their investors.

Hyperthetical and Hypothetical mean two different things. One based on exaggeration, the other on hypothesis. Which is it?

Schlemiel did you check the timing of the EIA oil data and the rise in Brent versus the same graph for HUR?

I’ll concede that there may be some forward guidance but delaying the publication to ensure including a new contact in the audited results doesn’t make sense to me, particularly when contract negotiations can unexpectedly run on or fall over for any number of as yet unknown reasons.

The audited results are based on past performance and future performance absent of any contract/agreement is moot. That's my view.

That’s very kind of you both. I’d not seen him for 30 years so I’m saddened but not grieving, but there was an outpouring of grief from his friends and the local community that surprised his family even about how much he’d done to help people who were struggling for one reason or another without doing so for any other reason than it was in his nature. He was a larger than life character in many ways and his family are understandably grieving but taking solace from the messages people are sending - and there are many hundreds of them. I know I’d not have anything like that when I leave this earth. RIP JP!

A childhood friend of mine succumbed to Covid 2 weeks ago, 4 days after being admitted to hospital. 50 years old. Overweight I have to say but double vaccinated.

It would appear that transaction for 666k shares was a buy. The price was 20.40p

Relatively large volume trades just gone through though.

There is no 'news' in that RNS in my opinion, only notice of a date change. They advise that everything was as expected, including forward revenue guidance and that there was nothing to be concerned about pertaining to the audit.

For all we know it might be Covid related and I don't see why they would need to state as such. Would they if it were some other health related matter?

"The Board confirms that trading for the year ended 31 July 2021 was in line with its previous expectations, that its expectations for the current year are unchanged, and it is not aware of any material audit issues."

There's nothing to suggest that a contract is being negotiated. Nor does it suggest one isn't.

In my opinion this still comes down in the short term to the PATB and until the company advises us of any confirmed contracts then the rest is pure speculation with a healthy dose of hope on top.

This is one I'd love to be proven completely wring on but I simply can't see any company delaying the release of results in order to coincide with good news as they are effectively mutually exclusive. As for time taken, it's all relative. A large company will have a large team, of auditors assigned, a smaller company a smaller team. The fact PWC have been auditing Nanoco for a few years now gives me some additional comfort. I guess we'll find out soon although clearly the results and forward guidance, as of the time of issuing the RNS, hold no surprises.

Happened with another stock of mine recently and there was nothing out of the ordinary before during or after. I think the most likely explanation is as bonzoful suggested that there are delays caused by Covid. Lets not forget auditing is a procession for these auditing companies who move from one to the next and any previous delays have knock on effects.

IC “ It’s not all rainbows, according to chief executive Antony Maris. “The challenge of funding investment in our assets remains,” he said. With oil at over $80 a barrel (bbl) and likely to stay at higher levels than last year into 2022, that problem may be solved as well. However, the company has to work out how to hang onto the Aoka Mizu floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) ship beyond June and the regulator wants more decommissioning liabilities, which seems justifiable given the company’s shakiness this year.

Production in the first half was an average of 11,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd), down on the first half of last year, but the average barrel sold for twice as much as it did in 2020, at $62.20/bbl. Costs also climbed over a third, to $25/bbl, but the higher price more than covered this.

Consensus forecasts compiled by FactSet see full-year free cash flow at $56m, compared with an outflow of $7.5m last year.

Things are looking up for Hurricane, but if the board cannot invest in maintaining production or hand out a dividend there are better options in the sector. Sell. ”

Thanks Genghis. I guess it's a matter of perspective. For those left with high averages the rise from 0.7p to here is of little compensation, but those entering at 0.7p will be quite happy, but yes there are many realities being overlooked. That could be a mistake longer term.

11-shx honestly I read this sort of rhetoric and almost weep. Apart from the supply/demand argument I think you'll find that demand is still subdued and supply is restricted by KSA and Shale, the latter being a weaker force. But the reservoir model is fundamentally flawed. Ok, if the oil prices remain high you could perhaps drill new wells but fundamentally this reservoir of which these two wells were drilled in the sweet spot is on its way out from the existing wells that are accessing it.

Morganna it's not really a huge miss but I know what you mean. I've had large sums invested here before and made some returns even if the last sell was painful at 9p-ish I think it was in Feb 2020. My money is being used speculatively elsewhere so I can;t really criticise. Thing is I'm not in here anymore as I work in oil and know a bit about reservoirs and completions etc. unlike the other sectors I'm invested in where my lack of knowledge could bite hard. Best of luck to you with your endeavours.

morganna1 (good name by the way) I don't profess to always get it right. I got it wrong at 0.7p when to me it looked like the goose was cooked but some important actions and hard effort started mainly by those here have turned matters around and faced down the premature winding up. If HUR can keep production going and the oil price remains high I can see a future potentially (not sufficiently defined to make me invest) but based on the 2 wells I can see no other outcome than them both falling over next year. The trends are all downward. GOR is going to become a problem. That's not to say there wont be opportunities to make some more gains. FPSO contract would be met positively I think but this current reservoir and well performance as it is set up does not make HUR a safe long term investment. Using profits to invest in other fields perhaps in a non-operated capacity could be interesting and more likely to lead to longer term success. In my opinion.

JODO, it's not advice. I was countering someones statement that everything in the Hurricane Garden is rosy. It's not. Fact, not advice. I did say there are some moves they can make and who knows, long term Hurricane could be a massive success, just not with one well that's declining in Lancaster it won't.

"Hurricane is safe and its future is secure"

That's a bold statement. The purpose of the EPS was to prove the field would be suitable for full field development. The nature of FFD is that you start drilling more and more wells to exploit the reserves without at the same time doing anything to undermine the reservoir performance by over producing certain zones etc. Most importantly is that the FFD capital expenditure sees a return.

What this RNS states is that the 7 well will remain shut-in to manage the reservoir so they've gone from 2 wells to 1 well and 6 is in decline meaning to me that the EPS has proven this field is not suitable for FFD sanction, quite the opposite. Is anyone tracking the decline in production projections against actual production figures to see how closely the two are trending downwards? Note no reference to water cut. note no mention of bubble point. I'd be looking for detail on these critical elements along with BHP curves. What is the natural flow projection should the ESP fail and how does that impact cash flow?

The FPSO is not being extended at this time although negotiations are ongoing. June 2022 is not far away. As someone mentioned yesterday this FPSO will easily find a new deployment. It's already moved once with a relatively short lay-up period then refit to make it field ready.

Development of Lincoln......wasn't done before so why would it be expected to now? Spirit might have more cash however given the gas prices. This will tie in with the FPSO contract.

I agree the premature winding up order was just that, premature and there are some moves that can still be made but to suggest on here (where some are shall we say, not doing their own research) that the company is 'safe' and its future 'secure' is absolutely not a given.