Member Info for NGR1616

The share price is not moving outside a band. I don't see any reason for it to drift.

I'd only sell at £10 a share :-)

Well I hope you are correct Amerloque.

I think 25 up to 50 x earnings is reasonable but not the $1 EPS part as unless I'm picking up the wrong end of the stick that's $305m earnings per per annum.

brazen

Lincoln was sub optimal. Do you think if it was anything else Spirit would just let a good well go?

And save the NHS a fortune. The private healthcare industry might wrestle with it but ultimately they can keep the premiums high but treat proactively rather than reactively and be potentially more profitable.

Optical diagnostics: 400–1,650nm wavelength THIS WILL BE APPLE IWATCH

Optical diagnostic systems are a way of monitoring a patient’s condition without having to take samples of blood. The systems send pulses of light through a patient’s skin and measure the amount of absorption and scattering that has occurred. The light can be tuned to a specific wavelength for detecting the levels of different molecules in the patient’s blood: 575nm for haemoglobin, which indicates the amount of oxygen in the blood; 455nm for bilirubin, which indicates liver function; and 1,650nm for glucose, which helps diabetics monitor the amount of insulin required. For a specific molecule at a specific wavelength, the level of absorption and scattering can be used to determine the levels of the target molecule in a patient’s blood, proving a non-invasive diagnostic path. Using a QD sensor improves efficiency compared with a silicon-based sensor, thus reducing power consumption, which extends usage time between charges for a user who is wearing the device all the time, for example for managing diabetes. The QDs also mean that sensors with small pixel size can be used. (ST cite pixel pitches of 2.2 µm and 1.6 µm.) This is beneficial for devices implanted in the hypodermis for analysis of interstitial fluid, where comfort for the patient also needs to be considered.

Developments potentially lead to volume production

The most advanced of Nanoco’s projects developing nanomaterials for sensing applications is with a major European customer, which we have previously inferred is STMicroelectronics (ST). As discussed in a previous note, Nanoco has successfully developed a new generation of nanomaterials for potential use in infrared sensing applications for ST which it is now optimising. If the optimisation phase is successful, it could lead to production scale-up and eventual volume production in calendar 2023. This would use Nanoco’s existing nanomaterials facility in Runcorn which has capacity to output materials worth £100m per year. In addition, Nanoco has recently signed a development agreement for an infrared sensing materials project with a very significant Asian chemical company.

A range of opportunities in sensing

Nanoco’s nanomaterials represent a cost-effective, proven way of improving the sensitivity of sensors used for facial recognition and AR applications in smart phones. The ability to use the nanomaterials for infrared sensing opens up opportunities in machine vision, collision avoidance systems, non-invasive glucose monitoring and compact night-vision goggles.

Valuation: Resolution of patent infringement key

The ongoing development and optimisation programmes confirm that there remains significant potential for generating revenues from the supply of quantum dots (QDs) for sensing applications. However, ahead of these definitely moving to commercial production, we believe that Nanoco’s value lies in a satisfactory resolution of the patent infringement dispute with Samsung. Although the value of a potential payout has not been disclosed, we calculate that lost revenue in the US attributable to the patent infringement to date could be in the region of US$200–250m or more. Any damages awarded could also make an additional allowance for future sales of infringing TVs and a possible uplift for wilfulness. Samsung would also be likely to seek a global negotiated settlement covering sales in other territories.

Pursuing near-term opportunities in sensing

Nanoco has expanded its product and customer portfolio of nanomaterials for use in infrared sensing applications from a single customer and one material development programme in 2018 to five customers and eight different materials. Of these, the projects with ST and a very significant, undisclosed Asian chemical company are the most advanced.

Development with STMicroelectronics potentially leads to volume production in calendar 2023

Nanoco and ST have been working together for around three years. Originally this was as part of a supply chain for a major US customer, with Nanoco manufacturing nanomaterials that ST used to improve the sensitivity of its silicon infrared sensors. In June 2019 the US customer advised Nanoco that the joint programme would not be extended beyond December 2019 when the contract covering a range of stress tests and commissioning services at the Runcorn facility concluded. This decision was for reasons wholly unconnected to the performance of Nanoco’s materials and service delivery. The nanomaterials production facility in Runcorn had been successfully commissioned, with Nanoco delivering the final milestones for the US customer during FY20 and earning the contracted milestone payments in full.

With the US customer having withdrawn from the scene and the exclusivity agreement with it having lapsed, ST is able to offer the enhanced, proven, near infrared (NIR) sensors developed for the US customer across its extensive, global customer base. In May 2020 ST signed a framework agreement with Nanoco covering both development work and commercial supply of nanomaterials for use in multiple infrared sensing applications over a five-year period. The agreement covers the supply of small-scale volumes of nanomaterials for NIR sensors. It also covered a development project, which initially extended from April to December 2020, on a new generation of nanomaterials for potential use in other infrared sensing applications, which we infer from a recent paper given by ST (see below) are in the short-wave infrared (SWIR) range. This development activity was not impaired by the coronavirus pandemic. During H121 Nanoco successfully delivered all of the technical and commercial milestones on the first phase of this project, which contributed £0.8m of the total £1.0m revenues for the period. In May 2021 Nanoco announced that it was working on the second phase, which is the optimisation of the new materials. This phase is scheduled to complete in Q122. If successful, this phase could lead to production scale-up and eventual volume production in calendar 2023.

The agreement also commits ST to taking a specified minimum volume of nanomaterials from Nanoco if the enhanced sensors gain market traction and commercial volumes are required. These materials would be produced at the existing facility dedicated to sensing applications in Runcorn, which has already demonstrated that it can deliver

Fandg2 ......any relation to Gary Fung?

Seems to have a bit more impetuous today. 50% of average by 10am.

What was Engsolve's credit/debit and net asset position? I suspect they were insolvent and have been rescued from liquidation by PHE. PHE could be their their main revenue source and PHE need the tech so PHE had no option but to 'save' them. I've been involved in a similar situation with my company where a suppler made bespoke equipment for us but were facing insolvency and we'd not get access to ongoing spares etc. without paying more for design and manufacture from fresh.

The issue here is everyone bought in expecting a tremendous result and the shareprice pre RNS is a reflection of that rather than the results of the RNS which I considered to be positive. Drilling is not easy. Next time they will need to adapt the operation to ensure they stabilise the formation to allow access to the desired depth to perform the DST. At the moment the prospects are the same as they were before in my opinion and all that's changed is the removal of expectation for technical reasons and an over inflated share price has been rebased as a result.

buys cannot outweigh sells. For each one there is a corresponding other side to the trade. What is being reported are buys but they are just as likely in high volume situations to be sells. Its not a reliable metric.

boom

We should be due an update on some KPI's soon.
1. New 'logos' - this is customers transferring >100 Tb and more like 2 Pb, not just ones trying it and moving on.
2. Notional reoccurring revenue
3. Retention rate in past 12 months.

If this update when it comes is positive then I think the direction of travel is set.

toneman you are correct picking me up about "the other side of the trade". I was really only arguing the narrative that there are more buys than sells. There aren't.

Every single buy has a corresponding sell and every single sell has a corresponding buy. That is all you need to remember. The reports of buys and sells is only one side of the transaction and it's reported by only one side of the transaction. It's not accurate and doesn't pretend to be. I'm sure many of us can attest to making a transaction at a specific price and time and it is listed as the opposite of what you did.....therefore the other side of the transaction is the one being posted, not both.

buys and sells reporting in high volume scenarios are invalid. The MM's only report one half of the transaction and are also making money on each one. The SP is the only true indicator of whether people are buying or selling and at the moment people are selling no matter what you want to believe.