Member Info for ngms27

Glad I didn’t have his truckload. Just driven into a giant tank of h2o and sank.

I agree, net cash is king not debt like ??have

Be careful out there. With all that water your truck might aquaplane.

Is that the measurement at the toe of the horizontal section, the heal or prior to building out the horizontal section?

The important bit is we now is that both wells are only producing from fractures close to the heel and that the depth difference of the heels is circa 20m.

Therefore the heel depth measurements are important not the toe depths regarding potential water ingress from the aquifer.

Every day I look!

Certainly not keeping the Status Quo

I’ll get my coat.

DiveCenter, what you say is true but then the BoDs and CPRs modelling didn't predict the flowing bottom hole pressure being where it is now. If it continues at the current rate then sometime in the next couple of years they will hit bubble point around 1600psia.

I'm sure you are aware of that implication? If not it's in the CPR.

Slift, stop nicking my ideas ;)

Thats what Pharos were doing where the new CEO came from but what it will cost I have no idea. It would likely need topsides modifications and an injector well.

Slift,

I was disagreeing with the water cut on well 6 showing linear progression over the next few months/forever like some stated. I believe it will be greater / exponential over the coming months.

That's all.

Slift if only it were that simple. That's what would happen in instances were permeability and porosity were infinite such as in air. In a complex reservoir dream on.

Slift, there is no actual formula for this but lots of theories.

The best guide is empirical evidence. Ie what happened at 7z. Therefore I believe 6 will follow similar degradation now waters broken through. Also have a look at the Pharos presentation for their CMD with the CNV fractured basement in Vietnam.

It’s also known that well spacing plays a part.

Most likely a safety vessel suggesting some kind o maintenance work is being undertaken.

No one can say with any certainty that production has restarted as HUR haven’t stated it has. Call me daft but with the appointment of the CEO why didn’t they just add a comment such as ‘Production has resumed and is being ramped up’?

I’ve seen the use of the word imminently many times in this sector only to find out it’s not what we all assume it to mean.

MCB55, I understand what you suggest is possible namely the ESP could start oil flowing from down the well bore and negate water cut if the water is indeed perched.

I was told this months ago by an industry worker prior to HUR switching on the ESP for 7z

The money raise is an interesting point. Stobie going for the Cbs killed the share price leading into the EPS.

One has to question though is that the only way he could raise the monies required due to the merchant bankers having a better understanding of the risks than PI's?

Foresight is a wonderful thing.

Well as I see it they have two major operational problems that are and will restrict cashflow:
1) Increasing water cut
2) Decreasing flowing hole bottom pressure

1) can likely be fixed with sidetracks or new wells
2) is more difficult and a little further down the road. Pharos\Soco are now going for gas injection

I'll let the industry experts offer their solutions if they have any...

Interesting doc.
CNV kept water cut under 10% for 5 years, Hur exceeded this figure in less than one year
CNV started water injection after year 2, but the doc I gave a link to suggested water injection was only successful if water cut is less than 10%
In year 5 water cut increased rapidly to over 20% they immediately cut back materially on water injection. This collaborates with the technical document I posted re injecting water when water cut is over 10% is problematic
Water cut decreased to circa 10% but everything they inject after a short lag it spikes to 20% or more. More recently much higher
They are now going for gas injection
They are now producing circa 4600 bopd down from a peak above 13000bopd using 5 producers
Some wells watered out and had to be shut in
Some wells required sidetracks

The read through here is that water injection is not an option.

I've not tried to convince anyone. I've put forward my personal opinion for discussion.

Your money your choice but better to have a balanced conversation rather than everyone saying it's going into orbit and the markets wrong.

Just wondering ;)

Until there's proper news from the coalface it's impossible to come to any real conclusion.

One appointment a summer doth not make. Just look at Mourhino at Spurs.

Well the interesting bit is what Soco did with CNV although the CPS doesn’t see Lancaster as an analogue so they could be materially different in how they work.
CNV has a gas cap so they used water injection to maintain production but longer term it didn’t work. The water injection was changed to gas injection.
Perhaps HURs plan is to re-inject the produced gas and also potentially bring Lincoln and new wells online. Lincoln having a higher GOR would be a good contender. This would get round the production constraints re flaring.
This is pure conjecture on my part and I have absolutely no clue whether this is practical for Lancaster but it is what the new CEO did in his last job.

That would be a solution to the bubble point issue.

Have any of you looked at what this guys tenure did for shareholder value?

Take a look at the chart: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PHAR.L?p=PHAR.L&.tsrc=fin-srch

Choose max to view since 2012.

Yep a great appointment for delivering value to shareholder...