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I'll agree on that when we get the log results and subsequent successful flow tests from Theta West. It's looking like a strong possibility at present but we need to see the permeabilities at Theta West and that the seismic model is essentially correct.
Let's be clear here. Marmaris stating this is the biggest oil field in the World is 99.99% certain to be incorrect.
This is small compared to Ghawar, yes it's a very very large oilfied and ultimate recovery will likely be in the billions of barrels if it gets developed, but not 10's of billions like Ghawar.
Marmaris must be missing British bacon to tell such a huge porky that this is the the biggest oil field in the World!
On Buffalo alone now way hose
Exactly so 11k bopd now wouldn’t break guidance as it’s an average over that period not absolutes
So 35 days since the last off take. If taken today then:
1) Using historical average then productions circa 11k bopd
2) If your optimistic are they are taking 500k then circa 14k bopd
My personal model suggests production around 12k bopd now but remember it’s only a model not a prediction and could be as accurate as Witt and Valance
What if the final conclusion is that there isn’t a viable plan with a high probability of success that can take profitable production through to 2025 hence not worth renewing the AM contract next June?
This has to be a possibility given the information in the public domain at present.
Unlikely for the reasons highlighted in my previous post.
More chance of using it to test the sand package
Traditionally water injectors are away from the producers as they create a localised rise in the OWC which then sweeps oil towards the producers.
I would think given proximity using 7z would reduce oil and materially increase water cut in well 6 with little / no delay.
My personal view remains they need both new producers and water injectors not either or.
But of course they don’t have the financial clout for this.
Then given the low reserves would this pass the economic test?
What then happens when you hit bubblepoint which you’ve just made happen in a shorter timeframe?
Negative on HUR certainly, but very positive on TXP and am enjoying what is now close to a triple digit return percentage wise.
You’ve got bigger balls than me, looks like it’s going to drift lower without news to me.
What makes you think they are any better than some of us even if they actually had geologists which would be strange for the type of fund they are...
Why do you think CA have more information than us?
That would be against listing rules.
Saskias calculation is wrong in my opinion as the correct mass for 38 api oil hasn’t been used never mind that the AM only has 605k capacity
It’s misleading as it doesn’t include the $400k per day opex as per the last Q&A session
My calculation suggests $3.86m net based on 530000 barrels @ $42 and 46 days between off takes.
All the figures above $20m are gross and misleading
Nate, I’m removing myself from this board until we get an RNS or news on a tanker scheduled.
My reasons are this:
Hur need 400k per day to break even as per the Q&A on 9/11 @ $40 oil that’s 10k bopd
Well 6 has increasing water cut which reduces produced oil. My personal extrapolation is that oil production will be below 10k bopd by the end of January 2021. This isn’t a quantum leap from HURs own production guidance for Q4 of 12 to 14k given the starting point of 14.8k
Thus I believe HUR could be loss making by Feb 2020
HUR have stated bubblepoint H2 2021 without pressure support.
HUR have suggested drilling a water injector to mitigate pressure loss/bubble-point at a cost of circa $70m.
Given location no drilling will take place until late March early April and would likely take a minimum of two months, followed by two to three months of water injection. During that period they are likely bleeding cash as above
Given the increasing water cut on well 6 it’s my opinion that a water injector will fail. I’ve posted links to technical articles in Vietnam suggesting when water cuts above 20% WI isn’t financially valid as you just end up producing more and more water at the expense of oil
In June 2021 HUR have to commit to having the FPSO until Mid 2025 or decommission in mid June 2022. The timing couldn’t possibly be worse as at this point an remedial action will not have taken affect
$230m of CB debt had to be paid or refinanced by mid 2022. There is zero chance of paying this, the CB’s are trading at 30% of par as an example. If this does get refinanced it’s likely equity will take a haircut
My personal opinion is that any remedial action will involve / require the drilling of multiple new producers and one or more water injectors but HUR don’t have the cash or borrowing capacity (limited to $30m by CB covenants) to do this. This option either in FB or sandstones is also not without risk
Hopefully I’ve missed nothing but this is my personal opinion as to why I won’t invest at present
You’re both deluded and misguided. I’m neither a trader or a shorter. I’m just a PI like everyone else and also got burnt on HUR but to a lesser degree than some.
I’d held HUR from just after the IPO with many top ups along the way. I believed the hype until the water started showing which set off alarm bells and ultimately caused me to come to a different conclusion than Dr T. I lost a lot of capital here, my worse loss ever.
Because I dared question a Dr who’s a world renowned expert in his field I got loads of abuse on here and on ADVFN. However subsequently I was proved right and I believe I’m right on future prospects.
I’ve only posted on here to give a more balanced view and healthy debate. Since 9/11 there has been no healthy debate as anyone knowledgeable has agreed with me and buggered off.
Personally I’ve started and I’ll finish.
I’d actually love nothing more than HUR to turn this around, until they can substantiate anything for the future then my opinion is that ultimately equity is worth less than its currently trading at.
Roger that daltry myself excepted
Sorry but a conventional sandstone development in the same vicinity as Lancaster has absolutely zero impact on HUR. The same can be said for Solan.