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So not too far out ....

So looking at my Estimated figures vs Actual, I'm glad to say I was not too far out, in fact a little conservative in some cases I would say :

Production 33kboepd actual 31kboepd (Lower due to production maintenance)
Cash and Equivalents $117m actual $105m (Large cash payments made during June)
Gross Profit $105m actual $112m (excluding depletion charges)
Ops Profit >$60m actual $65.6m
Profit Before Tax > $65m actual $65m
Post Tax > $65m actual ( $84m excluding depletion charges / $37.5m inc depletion charges)

So, I would like to state again how amazing SQZ results are against a backdrop of integrating such a massive deal as BKR and particularity difficult and challenging spot price trading conditions.

Well done to all at SQZ.

atb

Excellent H1 afaic, however the drop today has been disappointing and manufacture to a point imo.

The signs were there from early on today with the appearance of NI spouting negativity so that his employer made sure their shorts get closed with a profit ( they do like to target SQZ ). Now they are hopefully closed we should settle down and move forward once more. Good to see NI posts have been removed although the damaged had already been done early doors.

atb

https://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/presentations/Interim-23.09.pdf

Think it's the case of 'cry wolf' syndrome ......

JAdam,

I mentioned in my previous post "We managed to average 40p/therm for Q1 and I estimated that Q2 would average at 30p/therm as it's combined that with a proportion that's hedged, I used ~35p/therm as my working average...."

So actual figures, with average realised prices of 36p per therm of gas, US$62.7 per barrel of oil and £277 per metric tonne of NGLs, I was pretty close with my ~35p/therm.

The upside is, with winter months upon us, therm prices will increase so looking forward to H2 realised prices improving significantly..... ££££ straight onto bottom line.

atb

Interesting SQZ decided not to utilise their tax pool to improve post tax figures £30m, unlike last year.

So we still retain US$139.3 million (£109.4m) ..... sure we all know what SQZ intend to use this for !

Looks like the shorter's and traders have had their fun, should start to move back up.

PS Conf call at 10 am.

Please stop posting with NI Subject Header ..... we all know his game, so please do not help him spread fake news !

He has no idea what bills were paid, how maintenance lower production etc etc during this period, just wants to get his short to close. Any as our figure are so good he has little to use as leverage other than generating this stupid post.

When I have time I will detail my thoughts a little more.

atb

Let the traders out with their penny profits and let the SP move on.

Not matter which way you cut it, these results are outstanding vs H1 2018.

""The Board continues to assess the appropriate timing to commence dividend payments for shareholders...."

Sounds very much like our BoD are trying to link the dividends payment to another cash dependent financial transaction, otherwise I have no doubt they would have served notice and gone ExDiv on a substantial dividend payment today.

Going to be a busy and exciting few months imo.

atb

Like this bit .....

"The Board continues to assess the appropriate timing to commence dividend payments for shareholders...."

So it's a case of when not if ...... that should get dividend hunters onboard.

Excellent results all round, that clearly shows a company going from strength to strength.

atb

**** PLEASE NOTE ALL CASH FIGURES NOW REPORTED IN UK STERLING (£) NOT US$ ****

Strong first half 2019 performance

· Successful consolidation of Bruce, Keith and Rhum ("BKR") operations has created a new leading North Sea operator.

· Combined production net to Serica of 31,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("boe/d") compared to approximately 26,000 boe/d for 2018 including BKR volumes for the full year.

· Field operating costs per boe reduced by over 30% compared to previous year - reflects both higher production volumes and a lower cost base.

· Operating profit of £52.5 million (1H 2018: loss of £7.9 million) after non-cash depletion charges of £37.3 million (1H 2018: £0.1 million).

· Mid-year cash and term deposits at £88.2 million - a 105% increase on the year end.

· Very healthy balance sheet with strong cash build, no bank debt and limited decommissioning liabilities.

Not long imo until we have major news. (The bot has recently switched in favour of SQZ atm for a reason, don't this it's just for result either !)

Would like it to be another acquisition akin the BKR, but a merger with a 'suitable' partner on terms that value us correctly and reward our BoD also would do too.

What we wouldn't like is an approach at this juncture as I feel SQZ have so much more to give over the next few years.

NB : Great close today.

atb

My post on 6/9/19 still holds afaic as breakout was confirmed too. " Happy with close today, could do with confirmation of breakout on Monday, if so I would be looking at a rise of mid to late 130's, that's 135p-137p imo. If we could get there before H1 results impresses the markets then we should move to into a new trading range 140-165p (once 141p broken and held) upon release of H1 results and comfortably remain so, with positive licence renewal and R3 news to follow "

So here's looking for a +135p finish.

atb

JAdam,

I really do think my Production/ CoH / GP will not be too far off.

We managed to average 40p/therm for Q1 and I estimated that Q2 would average at 30p/therm as it's combined that with a proportion that's hedged, I used ~35p/therm as my working average.

What I'm trying to get across is that SQZ are a well run company with plenty of running room and our actual results when compared to H1 2018 will show a substantial and significant improvement imo.

Not sure how many would be prepared to sell given the likelihood of another major deal landing soon too, against a backdrop of good H1 results. Although there will always be a degree of 'sell on news', regardless of the news as that is the way these traders operate.

Either way not long to wait ..... 7am tomorrow will answer many questions.

atb

KFP2,

Lovely to know you still have an interest in SQZ ..... Be great to have your experience and input once more, been a very long time, too long

atb

PS LSE still having an issue with being able to post this w/e

KFP2,

Yep, IB still here ..... actually really pleased the way SQZ have grown and matured over the years.

atb

Just because it has been said for months, doesn't mean it wouldn't happen tomorrow (RNS Monday), or it may never happen at all. Both extremes.

From my point of view it needs to be soon, otherwise the environmental pressures will suffocate the project regardless of how 'clean' the energy can be produced.

atb & aimo

I'm looking forward to our results next week as they will show an extremely strong improvement upon H1 2018.

My estimates of first 6 months of 2018 vs 2019 would be :

Production BKRE up from c24.2kboepd to >33kboepd (+37%)
Cash and Equivalents up from $21m to $117m (+450%)
Gross Profit up from -$2.7m loss to $105m (+4000%)
Ops Profit up from -$10.9m loss to >$60m
Post Tax up from -$8.4m loss > $65m

Clearly these last few figures could be way out depending upon large variables such as Admin (staff) charges and how we utilise our tax pool, when we pay our BKR transaction costs and any impairment / reversal and write-offs.

Either way, as I mentioned these should give the SP a right Royal kick up the rear and should show the market how undervalued SQZ really are atm, or at the very least, put a floor under our SP.

Just our improvement in Cash and Equivalents should open a few eyes in itself, let alone moving from losses to substantial profits on our gross / ops and post tax figures.

With these results we should see added interest by institutional investors, particularly if dividends are mentioned too.

Hopefully, our results will be enough to move SQZ into new, higher trading range too.

atb

Monmmur,

"I'm at a loss as to why we don't have additional II's onboard ..."

Guess it could be a few factors, IOC involvement, possibly, but more likely lack of main market listing and dividends imo.

We could of course have many with holdings below notification threshold too.

PS And I thought I had a large slice !

atb