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Farm-outs still being done .... even now !!

https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/north-sea-europe/article/14285679/finder-dana-extend-north-sea-license-partnership

"UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is considering a new 40% windfall tax on the “excess returns” of electricity generators as part of his sprawling package of tax rises and spending cuts this week, according to a person familiar with the proposal."

Not before time either imo.

Ryan Crighton, policy director at Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce, said: “The clamour for windfall taxes is understandable, but the whole debate has been driven by politicians unwilling to listen the hard truths which lie behind this populist policy.

“At a time when oil and gas producers are being asked to invest more to help ensure the UK’s energy security and make longer-term investments in renewables, additional taxes risk undermining their ability to do either.”

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/political-instability-now-biggest-threat-28484905

I agree, slightly on the weird side ..... but in a really good way !

For me, this shouts wanting to get the SP high as possible by any means possible as DT must know someone is / will be coming for them.

aimo & dyor

Nonetheless, interesting rise on Friday with strong close too ..... ;-)

L3, I take it you are loading up on shorts this coming week !!!

Disagree with 'pushing the pain of the taxes down the road' as all companies will be in the same boat, its how these individual companies make the most of the situation to lessen the tax burden. Yes taxation will by default will be greater than pre-EPL but as a business you need to take the opportunities on offer .... raising the EPL will cause pain for some, yet, at the same time allow others to grow their business.

There will, for sure, be renewed M&A activity as current NS players look to mitigate EPL.

N Eigg could well prove to be double edged sword if we find commercial gas as others will look at us with ~£550m cash and bonus of tax allowances able to be claimed off NE / SE development alongside normal acquisitions cost recovery too.

aimo & dyor

chinch,

Yep, read that just after I posted ... but as Flabby mentioned could be laying ground for the industry to breath a sigh of relief with ONLY +5% .... Sadly, I don't think the gov are that adept at anything atm let alone bluff or double bluff's.

Gov will want to quell Labour and Joe Public calls for more tax when in reality JP have no idea how uneven the playing field is .... or long term implications of killing off the NS when 100% renewable UK power is just a dream atm and all those with gas boilers will need gas for foreseeable and would have to pay whatever the US and the rest of the world will charge us for the privilege of importing their gas ..... If by some miracle we get positive news on gas show with N Eigg that may well mitigate any damage that will occur after Autumn budget.... all eyes on NE.

If nothing else, no NS will mean no independence for Sturgeon, is that a win win for putting up tax too.

aimo & dyor

SP,

Agree, it's a numbers game, the issue I have is I see the gas market will probably return to average levels below 100p/therm within next 18 months 'ish as new supplies come online, deals made, demand destruction happens, green production is accelerated and efficiency savings kick in not to mention end of war (fingers crossed) and countries start taking gas from Russia, legally or otherwise. ...... at <100p/therm we will make diddly squat imo, remember repairs and normal operational costs are exempt from the WFT allowance, std CapEx, this too has been reduced from 30% to 25% with investment allowance moving up to 80%, so forcing companies to invest or be taxed, no way to run a critical industry .
Also we still don't know what 'normal' NBP is for the WFT to be remove prior to 2026 ...... In theory 'normal' should also increase inline with inflation, what are the chance of that ! At what point do profits stop becoming "extraordinary" as this was the primary driver behind the tax. The new tax regime is way too complicated for the normal investor so many will turn their back on O&G until actual impact of these taxes are shown in accounts. Real make or break N Eigg is turning into, not at all what I expected only 12 months ago.

Following on from the 17th we will see how the industry tries to made the best of it .... think we will see several movers 'n' shakers in the production boepd chart as companies either pull out, bring forward CoP or get taken over and/or merge..... overseas opportunities will certainly be favoured over UK investments for those with cash looking to expand.

It's going to be wild on Thursday afternoon for sure !

aimo & dyor

Think this link may be better to use ..... ;-)

https://twitter.com/EnergyVoiceNews

I for one will most certainly be looking to exit all my NS focused investments for sure if that happens ..... 30% would be bad enough but 35%, making 75% TAXATION ..... REALLY FFS !!!

aimo & dyor

SP really stuck in a rut, even super boost from US resulting in vast majority of FTSE stocks gaining yet we get pulled right down once again .... No one want to buy I guess, all waiting for 17th to see if we fly or get fried.

aimo & dyor

Is that all of the quote ... “not only maintain our ongoing investment plan but will also look to expand and accelerate elements of that programme” .....

Should have stated '...unless the rules change with further increase of taxation and/or reduction in allowance or extend sunset then Serica will invest overseas and stop all further NS investment outside of tax deductable allowance.'

aimo & dyor

Be interesting what they will do with their windfall of ~$1bn cash too.

BRINDEX Role of "INFLUENCING LICENSING POLICY AND TAXATION.."

Lets hope they have managed to achieve just that come 17th !

https://www.brindex.co.uk/about-brindex.html

aimo & dyor

SP,

Even if NE comes in SQZ will still need to return cash and/or invest overseas as the CapEx for NE will be spent over next 3 to 4 years as in the meantime cash will still accumulate.

Would be nice to do another BKR style deal that allows us 100% revenue from 2026 (current WFT sunset clause kicks in) & minimise tax during revenue sharing period.

aimo & dyor

"Dark eventually likely will be in usa..."

Think dual listing or as you say t/o by PE then relist on US exchange is a given at some point in the near future imo.

Thing is, if DT were to actively pursue listing in US then odd's on its real value will be realised pretty quickly, so anyone wanting DT, ie TB et al would make a move for DT prior to this occurring imo.

Average quarter price per therm :
1Q 2021 - 49p/therm
2Q 2021 - 65p/therm
3Q 2021 - 119p/therm
4Q 2021 - 226p/therm
1Q 2022 - 232p/therm
2Q 2022 - 130p/therm
3Q 2022 - 281p/therm
4Q 2022 – to date – now sub 100p/therm

Hope our industry quotes current NBP Q4 average as being sub 100p/therm and last averaged below this in 2Q 2021 at 65p/therm, well before any form of energy supply issues arose. Yes average will go up as we move into December, but come on, now almost half way through Q4 and sub 100p/therm .... Hope they impress on UK Gov how volatile NBP is and how impossible it would be to make FID should WFT increase or be extended further.

aimo & dyor

"Still, these stocks are not cheap on conventional financial metrics, with Snowflake trading at 25 times sales, Datadog at 16 times sales, and CrowdStrike at 16 times sales...."

Fleccy as a paid ramper .... lol

Fleccy has been here through thick and thin, rampers are fly by night, blood sucking merchants that disappear as quick as they appear.

"Although I think HUR is going to be sold cheap, I think there is very little chance they will get a 75% vote in favour below 10p.."

That's where you are wrong I'm afraid .... you only need 75% of VOTES CAST not of share capital .... so Crystal Amber with ~29% you would need ~40% of share capital to vote in order to stand any chance of fending off CA 29% .... Then add into the mix others that would vote in favour and you can see how quickly the odds are stacked in favour of CA.
Also not sure if the £33.7m lodged in trust for EPS is included within c. $118m YE estimated cash, my guess is it is !

aimo & dyor