Member Info for NewKOTB

SP, that is why SQZ need to sidetrack NE, otherwise pay the going rate for reserves, wherever they maybe in the world. The market needs to see a clear path to growth and not just hoarding cash, once they see that path, Mr Market will decide if SQZ are about to do a Thelma & Louise or not ! AFAIC, SQZ glory days need to be re-captured and fast or change at the top is required.

aimo & dyor

Rough calculation, I make it ~£338m gross revenue from Aug to end November. Less estimated opex ~£45m, Capex ~£75m, Dividend ~£22m leave ~£196m pre tax for 4 months. So once again should give rough current cash on hand as of end of November of ~£605m less tax paid during this period. Current SQZ MCap of £790m

aimo & dyor

Just add, SQZ averaged 26,214boepd from August until end of November.

Broken down into month by month, we can then match SQZ's reported production figures on Monday with 85% of which is gas and hedging together with Brent that has averaged $101 in Q3 and $92.5 in Q4 to-date for a more accurate gross revenue.

Serica reported achieving 205p/therm YTD up until end Aug, so 226p/therm is looking good, with combined cash of £482.4m at 23 September 2022, for sure our SP being sub 300p is not at all reflective.

aimo & dyor

Well done SP .... saves me a lot of time.

227p/therm rolling average since early August and climbing, nice ... :-)

Thanks ...

lol .... just checked, same for me .... looks like they don't want us plebs getting it for free !

As for Takeover, the company can not control an unsolicited approach .... so director sells are no indication of if or when this may happen. Also, if they were to be in discussions under NDA's then this would constitute a closed period too.

"The shares like others in the same boat have eased along with hydrocarbon prices in Europe but the model still looks good enough to me and with positive strip prices and high winter demand I would expect a return to the previous high of 450 and more.."

https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/12/oil-price-wentworth-angus-sericapetromatad-and-finally/

"While we believe in the importance of the UK Oil & Gas sector, we are now considering opportunities in other countries .... as we continue to seek to expand our portfolio and create value for all of our stakeholders."

Note "we are NOW considering..." about time too, less considering more action please !!!!

aimo & dyor

Visitor,

" ....even just adding an "extremely" in front of challenging!"

Strangely, that was my first thought too .

Yes, our BoD have been too inept for way too long regarding M&A, change at the top is called for and wouldn't be surprised to see an activist investor or two start to show their feelings soon.

"I think if SQZ got another lowball M&A at £4+, this time a lot of PIs and IIs may think much differently than last time... I know I would..". Yes, agree also.

On the subject of M&A, without a doubt, any M&A has to be instantly accretive, no use looking 2 - 3 years ahead for production revenue when you could buy a producing asset tomorrow. Don't think it would be too difficult to do the maths on profitability of an overseas assets vs 75% taxed one in UK.

As for NE, the impact on SQZ is not just the failure to find commercial gas, it goes a lot deeper than that, not unlike our drill, lets hope analysis of our wireline logging shows some promise at least !

AIMO & DYOR

"This represents a premium of approximately 62.2 per cent. to the closing price.."

I would take that (+62.2%) .... shows substantial premiums are still being offered, just no one other than current NS player would bid on us given the Levy.

aimo & dyor

Yep, interesting to say the least ....

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/WEN/recommended-cash-acquisition-rv0cqx08tk9abnc.html

"The recent action by the UK Government to increase the marginal rate of tax on the UK Upstream Oil & Gas sector to 75% with no floor to prices, will make it challenging for the industry to invest in new longer-term UKCS projects. Nevertheless, we remain committed to expanding our portfolio through M&A..."

Hummmm, "Nevertheless, we remain committed to expanding our portfolio through M&A..."

Info,

"Some big transactions going through - does somebody know something?..."

Yes, indeed so ! Note, all top 7 ( excluding UT) transactions by volume for today executed at 320 - 320.01p. Someone wanted to trade in large volume today without moving the price .... Trades during the day were at mid-point too, so not reported at buy or sell ! Also not reported in today's LSE volume either .... volume for today 1.58m

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-12-01T17:04:58.990 GBX 320.01 144013 £460856.0013 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECHO
2022-12-01T15:34:12.997 GBX 320 127951 £409443.2 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-12-01T16:35:09.923 GBX 320.5 104517 £334976.985 UT AIMX P
2022-12-01T13:49:29.887 GBX 320 100000 £320000 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-12-01T13:43:13.147 GBX 320 100000 £320000 Off-Book SINT P ECHO
2022-12-01T17:04:58.997 GBX 320.01 88331 £282668.0331 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECHO
2022-12-01T17:04:58.993 GBX 320.01 75243 £240785.1243 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECHO
2022-12-01T17:04:58.997 GBX 320.01 28571 £91430.0571 Off-Book SINT TNCP ECHO

aimo & dyor

Interesting that Ithaca's hedging from Q4 2022 into 2024 at an average price floor of $65/bbl for oil and 174p/therm for gas.

Interesting massive 5.5pt leap in SP @ 08:20:34 - 08:20:49 with no obvious large transaction.

sasa,

thanks, you are of course 100% correct .... fat finger once more from me !!

atb

4Q 2022 NBP average to date is sub 100p/therm, way down on 2021 Q4 average which was 226p/therm, although 2021 averaged at 113p/therm, currently 2022 running at 185p/therm.

Of course from 1/1/2021 we had up uplift of circa ~50% in BKR receivables and Columbus came on-stream late November 2021 adding substantially to our cash flow, we still have ZERO debt and looking to end the year with ~£560m cash vs £218m for EoY 2021, our financials for EoY 2022 are looking rather fantastic atm despite recent EFL.

aimo & dyor

One thing AA can not be accused of is sitting on his rear-end, pity a lot more CEO's don't follow his lead and be more dynamic.

aimo