Great post from bomfin on ADVN6 Aug 2022 18:47
Well, Andypop could be correct about my £500 million debt figure projection current as of yesterday. Why would I suggest it?. We were yesterday at 22.18 hours,lol, 127 days on since the last debt figure given.
During those 127 days a new 25% tax was introduced about half way through and Tolmount production was initiated early into that period also. Production figures for April and May suggest that we were ahead of production in the first quarter which gave us 18,000 boepd above gas hedged volumes and 60,000 beopd above oil hedged volumes. Reminder, the hedged volumes also collectively give off a little bit over £2 million free cash/day. Have oil unhedged volumes held at over 60,000 boepd on average?. There has been infill drilling and there will also have been some shut downs for maintenance. I think though collectively they could have.
On gas unhedged volumes. Tolmount and Everest LAD well on with a little depletion at Jade South should have seen us hold at 18,000 boepd over hedged volumes during the period. Personally I think it will be in the 20,000 boepd to 30,000 boepd above hedged gas volumes/day average. They will have cleared free cash of average between £7 million and £10 million a day. It could possibly be higher. It almost definitely will not be lower, If at £10 million/day then 1.27 billion pounds cash flow will be reduced by approximatley £350 million capex. If these figures come in then we will be around £500 million debt as we speak. They are optimistic forecasts based on there not being bad news that I don`t know about which with so many fields across Harbour portfolio may be optimistic. Being diversified across many fields is of course also good news.
The Jade South well came on at around an extra 10,000 boepd net to Harbour in January. The value of this well is being ignored by the market in my opinion. It has already produced around 2 million boe net to Harbour at gas prices even after 25% tax of over £100/boe. Hmmm. The fear in the share price was that we would not be able to produce over 70,000 boepd gas and have to start buying in gas at high prices to cover the shortfall in hedged volumes. It was not made clear that Jade South had alleviated those fears in January and the Lad well a few months later and then Tolmount on should have got our heads well and truly above water. We will as I said last night know more on 25th August. There is potentially another £200 million cash flow to be made before 25th August. That gives me a little slack on my £500 million debt projection. Good luck to all holders.
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