Member Info for NeverMadeABadInv

it's been dropping a bit recently with no real reason to. although the whole market has done the same and looking at bab****'s share price it does seem to match it.

i thought the drop in july was a bargain, else i would be topping up right now, but i've maxed my isa allowance and don't have much spare cash.

i think that the directors selling might have a large part to do with the drop.

i've not seen anything negative in the news about bab****. hopefully nothing is about to be announced - but i think it would be really dodgy for something to suddenly be announced given that the directors have just sold some shares, so i doubt that is about to happen.

david mellors sold 276,512 on the 5th of september which is a lot. however, he does have 310,296 left which is loads.

if you look at his history of holding shares, most of them are from transfers. back in march 2022 he only had 71,268.

david lockwood also selling 395,007 shares on the 29th of august.

he still has 2,014,560 shares. back in august 2023 he had only 276,174.

so really their positions in the company are quite strong.

it does just seem to be for tax implications for both, as opposed to any sinister reason. hopefully this drop hasn't spooked anyone too much.

i am biased, but i still see bab**** as a good investment.

particularly, given all the wars happening, and the commitment to defence by the labour government.

and all the brokers are still putting high ratings and saying the company is a 'buy'.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/capital-goods/lse-bab/bab****-international-group-shares/news/is-there-an-opportunity-with-bab****-international-group-plc-1

saying that bab**** is 25%+ undervalued, so in theory it is considered a bargain atm.

suggests that fair value is £6.75, make of that what you will.

yesterday, bank of america issued a "buy" statement for bab**** with a £6.60 price target.

remebering that:

berenberg bank is price objective is £5.65;

deutsche bank £6.25;

shore capital also "buy" rating.

average price target £5.85.

50 day moving average is £5.2327 and 200 day moving average is £5.2130 so it is quite consistent.

https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/lon-bab-reiterated-rating-2024-09-02/

worth noting that some of the directors sold recently, which would be a reason for the recent drop.

https://*********************/newsfeed/article/bab****-intnl-group-director-pdmr-shareholding-replacement-2531488?fbclid=iwy2xjawfebu5lehrua2flbqixmaabhdil6do6rdbvvitrupsifkn0ob_bjvu1f_eorvjodlht-xvgmagp5ofqzq_aem_e628waybsxzum4i_mpg3pg

good news from the company in terms of successful and interesting projects and work in the pipeline/being delivered with orka submarine programme, 'dragonfly' helicopters, and ukraine contract extension.

https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/bab****-international-corrects-share-acquisition-data#google_vignette

"bab**** international group plc has issued a correction regarding the number of shares acquired by ceo david lockwood, stating the accurate figure is 838,298 shares, not 838,292. additionally, the release details transactions by other key personnel, including the exercise of share awards, sales to cover taxes and associated costs, and the retention of remaining shares, all of which occurred on 28 august 2024 in london."

6 extra shares... niceeee

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/2-dirt-cheap-growth-shares-044100682.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=ahr0chm6ly93d3cuz29vz2xllmnvbs8&guce_referrer_sig=aqaaacrxiphinvyvttl2a7ybd91rlfvbgjutmxiwo20tvi6zafd8olgdwltmzdqyr_np-gkrq7slvi4uhisjazliwau40htybusgdoweqai8jn7kgme3brnuatqq9mib7c0xrevzeyrvy0sunqoh1xodi4seai1dynt9fyj3kdgbeoex

"i’m searching for the best growth shares to buy when i next have spare cash to invest. and i think the following two contenders could be too cheap for me to miss.

bab**** international

uk defence shares are packed with significant long-term potential. but following the outbreak of war in ukraine, many of these companies now look quite expensive compared with previous levels.

this is not the case with bab**** international group (lse:bab). with a forward price-to-earnings (p/e) ratio of 12.4 times, it trades at a healthy discount to many of its industry peers. this includes ftse 100-listed bae systems, and us stocks northrop grumman, lockheed martin and rtx corporation.

their earnings multiples are shown in the table below.

company prospective p/e ratio

bae systems 18.8 times

northrop grumman 17.6 times

lockheed martin 17.7 times

rtx corporation 18.7 times

like those businesses, bab**** is enjoying a steady increase in orders and sales as western nations rebuild their ****nals. despite recent disposals, revenues improved around 2% year on year to £2.2bn in the six months to september, while its contract backlog remained strong at £9.6bn (versus £9.9bn a year earlier).

bab****’s expected to release more good news when it reports full-year results this month. as a result, city analysts expect earnings to rise 13% in the current financial period (to march 2025). growth is tipped to improve to 14% in fiscal 2026 too.

lumpy contract timings are a constant threat to earnings forecasts for defence companies. any such scenario could pull bab****’s shares lower again.

but on balance, i still find its investment case very attractive. and what’s more, the cheapness of its shares could help limit any price falls if news flow disappoints."

John Ramsay (director) has bought 10,000 more shares, so he's gone from 30,000 to 40,000, which is quite a considerable increase.

Haha don't speak too soon! Over 40p rise today! 

But on the decrease, I see this time and time again. In my opinion, yesterday's drop just shows people are manipulating the market to make it drop to buy at a discount and then to have significant increases to then sell at profit before it settles to a more normal share price (and then as per my predictions steadily rise.. hopefully eventually to what I believe is its true value).

And I think the whole of the stock market generally dropped some this month.

And see how all the media is positive despite it being the same news that was shared last week.. despite the other week just highlighting the 90m loss.. even though other parts are looking increasingly positive.

This is why it's important to actually look at their financials to understand value, or increasingly positive position, and stuff like decreasing their debts, and also read up on how they're investing into their infrastructure, and what projects they're working on, and countries they are focusing on for future business. Wish I could've predicted they would even go as low as 4.85 but topping up at 5.10 still makes me profit on my predictions from last week. I think the shares will probably go down a bit after today's news settles tomorrow but then continue this upward trend, will go down a bit once the dividend is paid, and then continue up again, with a bit of added day-to-day/month-to-month volatility to keep us on our toes.

There's also been quite a lot of shows this week and so companies across the defence sector have made billions of pounds worth of deals. Farnborough Airshow did $51bn on its FIRST day and Kier Starmer was there saying defence is important and so is increasing UK talent and skills. Obviously not all of these are UK deals but it shows there's plenty of business to be had. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pms-remarks-at-the-farnborough-airshow-22-july-2024

yolo just bought ~£20k more, which is 3914 shares.

had some faff with my bank limit only being £10k but got this sorted eventually. had already gained a bit but hopefully it'll keep going up. i'm going to have to offload some in the next couple of months as my portfolio isn't diversified enough. but bab**** is one of my favourite shares as they are very good value compared to other defence companies.

i feel like the general public and even many politicians has no idea how important the defence industry is and thinks everyone should hold hands and sing kumbaya.

taxes are disliked and most people are directly affected by these personal pleasures and so it seems much more real to them. ofc if russia gain control then war will seem far more real to the lay person.

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interesting to see these two different new ratings:

berenberg cuts bab**** international to 'hold' ('buy') - target 565 (510) pence

jefferies raises bab**** international price target to 720 (570) pence - 'buy'

tempted to buy more but i'm already heavily weighted in bab****.

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bab**** proposed a final dividend of 3.3 pence per share. should get the results on friday 26/07/2024.

all the news are going to focus on the £90million loss, even if the overall is much better, so it's going to see a drop, loads are likely to buy at the bargain prices, and then it'll increase again.

this is what happened at the capital markets day and other similar news days.

it would be nice if bab**** shared some of their profit with shareholders. anyone got ideas on when they next plan to do that?

i would imagine it is because of some uncertainty over who is going to be in power next, which normally causes markets to be a little bit more slow and more negative. now that labour have got in, the share price is likely to increase again.

there's also been a lot less in the news about the wars going on like ukraine, etc, again because of the election, and so once this has settled and the news starts talking about that again, share price is likely to increase again.

both parties plan to keep up defence spending and so bab**** is secure in that respect.

in april the company did a lot of payrises to staff backdated to last october, so company profits are being shared internally, rather than with stakeholders. but this is a good thing, as it shows the company is in a strong position and going to look after its staff, so hopefully they are likely to stay longer.

also in the summer shareprices may not rise as quickly because more people are taking holidays and so less focussed watching the stock market.

i know everyone is taking a slice atm, but i wouldn't just yet - hold and buy more.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bab****-international-group-plc-lon-052810001.html

"our valuation model shows that the intrinsic value for the stock is £7.23" "bab**** international group's earnings over the next few years are expected to double"

https://www.sharecast.com/news/risers-and-fallers/ftse-250-movers-bab****-gains-after-jpm-lifts-target-price--16122672.html

"jpmorgan cazenove lifted its price target on the shares to 630p"

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/capital-goods/lse-bab/bab****-international-group-shares/news/with-81-ownership-of-the-shares-bab****-international-group

"81% ownership of the shares, bab**** international group plc (lon:bab) is heavily dominated by institutional owners [...] a good portion of institutional money invested in the company is usually a huge vote of confidence on its future"

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1047538/bab****-upgraded-as-guidance-looks-conservative-says-citi-1047538.html

citi 640p update

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-09/european-defense-stocks-sink-in-breather-from-two-year-rally?embedded-checkout=true

Get them whilst they're cheap. These wars aren't going to stop any time soon.

Just top up and get them whilst they're cheap. They're worth £5.24 at a minimum according to most forecasts.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13289827/BAE-Rolls-Royce-line-fire-defence-stocks-tumble-12bn-rout.html

Nick Cunningham, managing partner at equity research firm Agency Partners, said: ‘The reality is that European rearmament is only just getting going, and these stocks have a long way to go yet in terms of growth.’

making over 50% profit since buying these shares. they're amazing. bab**** is amazing and going to keep getting better with all these wars going on. lots of russians in the north sea too and we need to keep them away too.

amazing future outlook. amazing strategic changes in the past. great pipeline of projects.

why wouldn't you buy buy buy!?

May I ask what is buying hugely for you?

What price do you think it'll get to once we have a covid vaccine?

So do we think the roughly 215p was the bottom? I was kind of expecting it to go even further to 150p and am kinda scared about this company going bust tbh, even with government involvement. Vanguard and the pandemic and previous bad management is sucking the company dry.
I bought at 500p a share last September and they increased by 30% by December. I thought they could go even to 750p a share but I should've cashed out and taken the profit. Even when the global pandemic started I was thinking I'd still make a profit maybe I should just sell but I thought ahh well I'll get dividends and the price will go back up soon enough if I just hold on. Obviously we didn't get dividends though and the price just kept dropping. My average is now 390p per share as I topped up twice. If it goes to 415p I'll probably cash out, otherwise I'll keep this company for dividends.

Would 100% buy.
Strong company, solid finances, lots of work coming in the future so steady workflow.
Good even just for the 5.5% dividend which is better than all banks.
Company was looking risky earlier this year when the price fell below £5 as there's a risk of BAE buying them. But unlikely to happen as they'd monopolise the market.. at least the royal navy marine side. And I don't think the government would like that.
There will be fewer Type 23s in maintenance periods but the Type 31 contract win more than makes up for that. Exciting times ahead for Bab****.
I predict the share price to get to the £7.75 mark over the next year. So fingers crossed as that's when I'd plan to sell mine. I think the share price will keep being up and down and relatively volatile but it is staying steady at the around £5.50 mark atm.