Member Info for nevergonnaretire

Baita will make Nameplate (for what it's worth..) within the next month or so.. but that's not what's transformational to Vast, but rather break even will be...

The upcoming operation report should or.would give us the guide needed to ascertain both production and cost or production and sales etc.. imo we should be looking for very large increases on Q2 production and sales, with efficiency savings (wages, cost of equipment, power etc) to stand a chance of break even in Q3/Q4 - this is possible.. 50/50 imo.

It's the lack of forward jnfo given by vast that makes it 'pie in the sky' guesses...

Thanks Sandy - what a beautiful sunny day... has helped with perspective a little..

A lot of doom mongers on here once again, but a lot more who look in here without comment..

My Sunday afternoon take on things:

I agree and believe both creditors will be happy to be paid a 'bullet' payment of interest to allow the debts to be rolled over to a specific date.

Vast will not be going insolvent as many would have you believe..

So we then look at a raise, which although likely, is still not confirmed.. up to 1.42 billion shares to cover a combined debt of at least £7.5 million (probably nearer £8 million) which equates to getting the raise above 0.5.. to get this away, Vast would imo need some good news in the pipeline to 'lift' the share price long enough to forward sell all those shares.. to me that would be 0.6-0.7, then drift down to 0.5..

I then look at where such good news could come from, and the obvious would be positive Baita production figures plus Tajikistan offtake / commission - figure which we been promised imminently.. and AP likes dropping a bit of news just before a meeting to defer a little focus, as I believe he will be in for a tough time in this meeting. He will probably be releasing a chat or statement via the usual channels this week if hes true to form. would this be enough to lift the share price.. probably, for a short while, but then as Sandy says we look to Q4 and behind for stabilisation of this share, as there is still no reason to believe Baita would be profitable before then, and with Zimbabwe waiting for AP to grease their palms, it could be that diamonds will go on for a lot longer than Q4..

If I were AP, I wouldn't be giving away Baita to cover a debt.. that sounds ludicrous, but would certainly consider paying off Alpha and leaving our offtake partner Mercuria with a rolled over debt until diamonds, then would look to Manaila and Blueberry, exploring the costs to start up.. if we are to be diluted heavily, then let's see something to show for it shorter term if diamonds a no show for time being.

It would be nice if someone had or could remember the costs and time scales to restarting Manailla..

2 operating mines... 🤔 a pipe dream...? The doomsters would make you think so, but imo not beyond the realms of possibility.

The elephant in the room has been somewhat addressed.. I can't see this price getting anywhere near 1-2p if the 1.5 billion shares released...

How will AP play this..? There are options.. pay off both creditors at the expense of all shareholders Inc the ii.. 🤔

Nearly 5 billion shares in issue so 1p would be 50 million mcap...2p 100million.. no chance, unless diamonds + jv diamonds in zim + Baita profitable + Tajikistan earning..

I found it interesting that they are still going ahead with their share incentives for the board.. and that it was sneaked into a crappy rns..

Sandy, didn't Vast apparently buy 'more' equipment (recently rns') to ensure the ramp up on Baita..?

This is part of the problem.. no one knows what, if any, equipment arrived and how that will affect the production and efficiency at Baita.. we could be one month away as Noba says.. or we could be over 3 months away, which is probably more likely imo.

Sadly this diamonds debacle is now taking the focus away from any newly formed partnership in Zimbabwe.. the talk should have moved on from whnn are the diamonds arriving to when are we starting up mining again in Zimbabwe, putting vast back at least 4 to 6 months

I think it's pretty much nailed on that vast will have to release some sort of equity to either keep operations running at BP until break even and/or give to at least 1 creditor to stave off any sort of asset grab..

Imo 50/50 whether their hands are forced into 1.5 billion share dilution.. it's down to the creditors if they play ball.. especially Alpha! Imo Mercuria will work with Vast..

Maybe pay off Alpha and roll on Mercuria until possibly the end of summer.. then Vast should.. (yes should..) have a mine which is profitable - I have in my mind by late September or October.

Geordieshores - Vast needs to plan in case diamonds take longer to arrive.. as has been previously discussed if the diamonds are not there, then insurance will cover.. so Vast are planning or have to plan the longer game... at long last imo as these stupid little placings were imo almost arrogant in thinking they could get the diamond sale over the line in time..

AP has a hard month ahead to bring the confidence back, very hard indeed

I agree that the diamonds will be enough to pay the loans off, but how much on top,.now thats 'finger in the air' time.. I was always happy at just paying off vast debts ($90 per carat) and I expect the majority of shareholders would take that right now!

We are at the mercy of 2 creditors, yes.. but 1 (mercuria) is a partner @ Baita and surely the more productive Baita is, the better for them...?

It's Alpha where the problem lies.. they have no interest in working mines, but Real Estate is where their hearts lie.. and there's a nice juicy property in Romania that they are eyeing up right now... Will they get their hands on it.. unlikely, at least unlikely anytime soon imo

Agreed rachelsdad, AP WILL get a grilling.

And it's annoying that he hasn't come out and said anything to my knowledge today.. that is unless he is in the middle of something else...

Well, today was nothing short of a disaster.. and the market now believe 'heavy dilution is on the cards.. but is it??

It's not the fact that they are considering not getting the diamonds.... not that at all, Vast fully believes they will but unfortunately held up by beaurocratic nonsense imo!

However, Vast had to ensure the business will keep going without interruption.. and without the crediters making a messy grab for parts of the business.. this was the only play they had at this time, a play imo Vast has set out in previous rns' with getting the High court order for 129400 carats of diamonds, trying to protect themselves..

They have this as collateral, they will have the backup plan to release funds after the general meeting to then meet their obligations to both Mercuria and Alpha 'should they have or need to'.. imo there is a chance this could happen, which will result in a near 5billion shares in issue (after a nominal placing for working capital..), but equally Mercuria, to protect their offtake partnership could be happy with rolling over with a nominal profit each month, which then leaves Alpha... well, I don't believe AP will give up Baita without blood being spilt after all those years spent getting it going.. so what to do with Alpha?? Issue shares to pay them off?, give them a rights issue to keep them at bay for a few weeks or months whilst Baita becomes profitable..? I think get Alpha out of the picture, issue the shares and start again..

AP - need you to pull the rabbit out of the hat.. come on, talk to us..

Would be nice for AP to chip in a small statement.. if nothing else to tell us if he still in zim..?

So... vast want to prove they can repay their debts... they want the 'authority' to issue 49.5% of their current shares in issue.. which would then be enough (or there abouts) to repay both loans.. creditors will want to see this to cover themselves should things really go belly up with diamonds here..

This imo is a good move from vast - it doesn't say that they will issue the equity but they then have the power to issue should they need to... it's vast playing for time.. the only real call as zim are clinging onto diamonds presently..

That's why the general meeting to get it voted in asap.

Back to 0.5 now..

I agree... it's zim at its best.. and the debt need to be sorted / restructured etc to cover themselves.. share incentives are pretty standard.. looks.like thsi is going into July and August as I thought... Nameplate first then..

Strange how no placing..? But will be needed in my book.

What's the holdup with diamonds? Bearocracy at its best.

A message from AP would be nice... maybe later today..

Now

Actually you can bow @.049... bot at the 0.42 I wanted 😒

Surprise Surprise.. bo buying allowed atm... drop overcooked imo

The elephants on the room had to be addressed.

It's not going to 0.2 anytime soon... that is,.unless diamonds are gone and no moneys coming out for the foreseeable... very doubtful imo.. AP mistimed or under generated in the previous placings to get where we today..

But the problem is lack of info involving 'current' cost to sale after all the apparent New equipment was.bought in o ramp up production at Baita... it was costing up to £1 million per month at Baita, but with all the ramp ups,.new equipment etc its all too 'finger in the air' to generate figures atm

A proper current balance sheet please

Placing does look likely now with nil other news coming out.. every push north and then comes a drop back.. with an after hours trade or two.. 🤔