Member Info for NelsontheDog

given he has deleted his account and wont therefore be reading the board....

benny blanco is to ****s what coke is to cola! lol.

I am breaking out the popcorn for 8am - we could be treated to a burn up of shorters of epic proportions - here's hoping

Rare I have felt it recently, but well done ART for securing a LOI given the extended period of time to gain agreement so far. 9 months in the making so far!

I hope this pushes the sentiment positive -along with imminent increased production there is a real basis for positivity - if the share price rises we can avoid a larger bond holder dilution. There is absolutely no reason other than selling pressure for our SP to be this low.

5p by Friday? or am i too conservative....

Todays rise is a positive - imagine if the rise continues, BH's hold and everyone holding shares is a winner.

Going to happen one of these times. Till then I will use your 1.8billion shares in issue as my comparator (you were much more optimistic than my 2billion estimate you ramper!

StanAccy,

Equally no-one is forcing you to buy and hold COPL shares - if you don't hold then, my goodness, I am envious of your time to burn.

I believe the asset values used were discounted to an industry normalised range to reflect the fact they aren't sitting in the oil tanker - but yes there is definitely risk there.

I get your concern - I just don't at present get your interest in posting on this board.

Apologies to BB if I am engaging where I shouldnt - I am at home and have two screens on my desktop - on one is this BB board (where I have learned a good deal today) and on the other is a twelve page dreary minutes write up and edit -I hope you understand.

Les Mouches

Hang dog! Easy tiger!

Answering my own question - the marvel of reading properly never ceases to amze!

Oil price in note $70, 1250bopd. Since note more financing but currently June 1263 bopd and current oil price is circa $76.

Production expected to rise further within the month - happy days on this aspect i think.

Easy,

Apologies if I am too much of a slow burner, but the report states 1250bopd gives a marginally positive EBITDA (not sure what oil price that is based on) but with June production of 1263 bopd have we passed the b/e threshold?

If yes and we are expecting further improvement that enormously derisks this share.

JppJ

Froma selfish point of view Im glad you are thinking of re-entering the share, but do you make all your investment decisions with an undertone of searing rage and hurt? I suspect you dont and as such maybe some numbers and scenarios may in some way help to get past that point (it certainly aids me).

Anyhow, I wish you well here or elsewhere as I do to all. FWIW - i've pursuaded myself to average down here - the GGS is key and if the worst case conversions looks pretty good to me.

JppJ

That has happenned, I am trying to gain view on what will happen next hence scenario build - I can then assess each element of scenario and try and gain a risk view to go forward - it helps me even if that doesnt help you.

If the drop from 38p (wehen i presume you bought from your post) to 1.7p is all you need to know, why are you still here? I'm here to gain understanding and views of others. i also have the burn marks of the past and i am currently assessing whehter I too am done.

All I am picking up from you at present is rage, you say you are done with this share, yet here you are, not being done with this share(?). Entirly your right, but I am not sure why youy object to my scenario, and call it ramping.

At no point have I called it a steal, a buy or given a view as to what others do.

NtD

Stan - how many bonds so you think will be put into circulation? - Unnd provided a defined view (that uses a 1.5p level.

This is a tower of If's

If GGS can make us breakeven for cash / steady state then we dont need new lending / financing / bonds.

If 1.5p is the low point then we have 2b shares (less if over 1.5p as now

If thats the case and you can stomach this BOD then this is good value at 1.6p.

Rather than searching for the emotional response and trying to whip up a froth of reaction, please could you provide a measured counter-scenario - for me, your credibility as a poster now relies upon it.

AtB

NtD

Unnd,

thank you - very difficult to see the wheat for the chaff on this board sometimes and I missed your post - a very good one at that.

So, if we take the possibility of 2billion shares at 1.5p thats a mcap of £30m versus an asset value of 652m or 32 p per share (at 2b shares)

I must therefore assume that the market sees the risk is of going concern and needing more financing is keyyyyyyy to current price then - but i think it is a reasonable view that GGP raised production will eliminate this risk (I would love a breakeven bopd view of COPL)

If price starts to rise, presumably the potential max shares in distribution falls thereby increasing that potential NAV per share? That being the case there could be a whiplash rise - never mind shorts closing, if for each rise of 0.1p, the potential dilution drops, there is a huge impact on the share price. Therefor once we start re-rating we will see a boom.

Again, Unnd - thanks for the info - I feel a lot more relaxed here as a result. ART has just got to ensure production increase and we can change the dynamic of this share, and all gods, power and humans willing, the constant unhelpful noise on this board!!

GLA

NtD

As price starts to rise, that potential for

I will openly say I am less sure of the bond conversion potential impact than i should be. Is there a way to run a theory as to the max impact of the dilution?

E.g. if we said the SP is a constant 1.5p (as we see nowish), if all BH converted, how many shares would we subsequently have in issue?

If anyone can advise if thats possible, as in its that simple to gain a view, I would be very appreciative. SP looks cheap but if we could end up with massive massive dilution - ie 20x more shares than now - its easier to understand the share price - if anyone can educate me or even has a theory model you could dispel a lot of the current unknown and as such potentially remove a lot of the froth from this board allowing a more rational discussion.

NtD

The SP is turning I believe. The GGP infrastructure alone should allow this share to rise a little as production rises. In terms of the risk of failure, I believe the going concern is about to be realised and that risk will be removed - hence I think a raise in SP is due - £9m mcap when you consider the firesale value of the assets is a complete steal, let alone the investment in the fields.

I refer to mcap as the bondholders and how this plays out and the amount of the company left for current shareholders, I am less sure so will leave to others - but seems to me there is plenty of value here to go around. Just wish I was free to have started my buying journey now rather than when we were up in the 20's.

Feeling very positive on production rise and SP rise as a result- believe the JV is currently irrelevant to short term share price though. I believe share price without a JV will be higher than 2.5p end of August. Just my opinion.

GLA

NtD

Still here Terry? Very odd given you still dont rate it. Suggest you take the advice of a TerryMC1 on this board below...

FWIW my view: Good solid results overall - no panic and delivering.

Behind the update you can clearly see the challenge of working in sub-sahara Africa (if you aren't providing the solution, you cant rely on others to provide the solution) and really exemplifies the hard work it takes there just to stand still, let alone drive a multi-year expansion. More work done than to be done imho - and by that I mean the harder riskier items are through for existing sites and refinements always easier after that.

Northern note to come and as well as hopefully starting that effort, should also free management time from that towards new venture planning.

Zooming out

I'm long from 2p here and operationally I still dont see any need to exit this potentially future giant company any time soon.

Fervently hope that this news is enough to rebase our SP, but as i'm not selling anytime prior to Northern expansion at a minimum its feel good rather than a need.

GLA

NtD

Very interesting and thank you Professor and others for highlighting this aspect. Spent a lot of my career as a negotiator / closer on very long term agreements and its always always exciting when the worm turns in who is the hunter and who feels hunted - should lead to some earnest negotiating space being freed up as this penny drops.

GLA

NtD

In regard to JV - i do believe there are discussions - my personal hunch is that they lowballed the offer (as we are in dire financial straits) and have left that dangling. Art then calling their bluff by using bond finance rather than their deal - either way, if you are a shareholder you were in for a shafting - personally I would have preferred a bad deal than the bondholder nonsense but, and its key, I as a sh dont get a say.

GLA

NtD

Or nowt happening today.

Its gotten more exciting - yes, but so far most of that excitement is being generated here in the BB rather than out there with Mark - lets hope news today can change that dynamic.

GLA

NtD

I would expect a bit of leaky leaky today if we are going to court for some kind of progress tomorrow - too many people would start to be in the know as legal prep goes on - just my humble opinion - we can see if that happens this afternoon