Member Info for NelsontheDog

Hi Mikie & Seis

Thank you for discussions - I have been reading as you go along.

I think we are hoping that our results can brighten the view of this stock - however next results will be Full year due out in late October - and as such they wont contain that ramp up in the H2 2023 period - that wont be reported till February 24 or such like.

Is there a view that there is enough in our to 30th June 2023 to give a flacour of the Copper, chrome and cobalt earnings and thus break the current compare to SLP and PGM's only?

I do agree but understand the frustration.

However, unlike my other Oiler (Cahriot) at least I have a good handle on the primary causes of delay - despite current silence they are generally clear when they communicate - though they did have a blip with the timings here recently.

I like that CH has a large holding and in the longer term time horizon I do expect to be rewarded for my patience here.

Not been a great time to hold but equally I dont see this as a great time to sell - lots of potential!

Please correct me if wrong as i am going from memory here but Cascades - i think we have 20% with an option to acquire another 10% - so effectively 30% share if it turns to the good.

Still a hefty amount of gold in the ground at 30%

Vernetles - that is my hope also but not sure on the timeline or the SP impact - personally I would initially assume PAT retain 51% and as such if that were to be the outcome I would expect a lot more than 50p - maybe 150p upwards - but then again I am often wrong on these kind of elements.

Whichever way, our current price does seem very very low still - maybe it will take the lodging of the BIT claim to give a boost....

Youre right Lord. I think I may have first seen the share following his tip. I didnt realise that when he call it a bargain share, that the bargain part is also a future prediction! - I would love to be buying into this share here (and will if a littel money comes free from other areas of the portfolio.

Agree - a really solid interview. If I were the decision maker at GoR I would hear a lot in there - "in order to negotiate an agreement it requires ALL stakeholders to be present at the table".

I really like the way he positioned the news - with a subtext that we are just a simple miner, we didnt look for this fight.

I really hope we get licences rather than BIT, and sooner rather than later, but we are way way way too cheap at present - when do others take note - the fact that Faskens and now LCM are on board on a no win no fee basis gives a lot of confidence that the claim has a lot of credence - as such the risk discount to me appears to be way way way too high.

In the meantime I suppose that means I should buy more!

Slugmum,

I usually feel your posts are a little too negative for my taste, but this summary of the Satoshipay position is spot on, and as you say after so long and so many false dawns it is little wonder that cynicism and low expectation begin to surface.

If Satoshipay make it through this next bull run phase - to end 2025 without a murmur then I will properly give up ever mentioning it again.

Dynasty in some ways even more frustrating with the lack of news - given the way they have treated Blue with no updates at all in this phase, when they get to IPO and are looking to have support from shareholders, I hope Blue cashes out - yes there may be money to be made there but Blue should have influence on the companies it invests in.

It may make money from there but the story of BLU is they have no leverage seemingly in the positions in which they are invested - if i wanted that, I can just invest myself as a PI.

So, joining you on the negative view - I used to think one day there will be news that makes us rich, nowadays I just think one day there might be any news at all!

I believe there is some value to be unlocked here in the long run, but its been a very very poor showing of late - however not sure what more BLU can do with their current hand.

Fantastic close to the week - strong and laying claim to the recent rises in price - this is a rerate, not a pump. Not even half way there yet imho.

Its a good BB at present - I certainly enjoy most posts - Professor shares his views very well and really well presented.

As a board we live on conjecture so believing one thing might happen and it not happening is no crime at all inmy view - for me its the strength of the board.

Thank you Professor, thanks Edhallas and thanks to all contributors - we all have varying views and degrees of enthusiasm and to date the board works really well imho.

More like 12p i think on reflection...

So today we got news that we will receive $13.6m of non-refundable funding for legals that could lead to $1bn settlement to the company.

Our Mcap rises by under $3m??!! At a minimum I would expect to see the funding reflected in the mcap so MCAP circa £18m - If we had had to raise I think this would have occurred.

And that also doesn't account for a shift in sentiment as a specialist funder believes we will win - very disappointed in SP.

To reflect the funding we need a price of circa 10.p I think - that maths probably needs checking.

So at 9th or 11th Court date - offer PAT 85%, GoR 15%? Settle 90% to PAT?

Another two weeks of deal to and fro then. After a year at least of nothing, this share is exciting if nothing else.

I did think we would see a lot more reaction today and a few new peeps but hey ho.

The key difference in my view now as opposed to pre RNS is that the effort and need to negotiate now sits with India Government to chase GoR as opposed to before when it was Panthera trying, I suspect with local partners to add impetus and urgency to the process.

MB can sit back and wait for his phone to ring so to speak.

The upper hand has moved to PAT and that in itself is tremendously positive. I still hold out hope that we will see a negotiation / offer to settle in some format prior to the registering of the BiT legal proceedings being registered. So all hope of an earlier settlement is most definitely not lost. The challenge I suppose if it is licences rather than compensation is how do you assure future co-operation in the agreement? Ie will GoR play ball only until case dispersed and then shenanigans reappear? If you cant see a route to those reassurances you have no choice but to go the Tribuneral route.

MB has done a fantastic job - lots of people profess to be deal makers but in the Cascades free ride and this result show MB is the real deal at making things happen.

I have absolutely no idea where the SP goes on this news - comes back to Roxi's point on complexity and timing of the potential future reward.

I dont disagree on complexity Roxi - I have deliberately avoided Time as a factor in my posts this morning. Time the third dimension - but the decision to avoid the settlement will be strong - you still have to chase the prize out the maze before you get it - and this is the time and resources. Todays RNS says we have the resources - we all have time.

I frankly have no idea if there will be an early offer, or 1,2,3 years till due. However I do know that our hand is now much stronger - the very fact that LCM will put $13m non-refundable in this means the legal case is very very strong, not in my view, but in theirs.

Sebo - I totally agree - rangr of settlement starting at $1billion and maybe rising to $10billion v signing back at the cost of ink the original licencing agreements and some legal cost compensation - its a complete no brainer I would say.

6.2m ounces @$1900 per ounce = $11,780,000,000 x 10% = $1,178,000,000.

6.2m ounces @$1900 per ounce = $11,780,000,000 x 25% (mined GP estimate) = $2,945,000,000.

10m ounces @$1900 per ounce = $19,000,000,000 x 10% = $1,900,000,000.

10m ounces @$1900 per ounce = $19,000,000,000 x 25% (mined GP estimate) = $4,750,000,000.

Gulp!!

lots of questions in my mind as to the parameters of the claim;

1. did bhukia have published resource estimates - i think i saw earlier that the indain government had gold estimate at 6.2m ounces but panthera felt it was more like 10m ounces?

2. what value is put on the reserves? in valuation estimates we often put 10% of gold price in for value as its in the ground, but in a court case is it the likely profit to be achieved via the mining which would be considerably higher percentage?

3. what expenditures have panthera spent to date - this alone must be a large number of millions.

might try and do a back of *** packet but tbh - i need to work at day job also today

Great news today - moves the goalposts out but the onus for action moves from Panthera to the other side. Larger funding than originally described approved.

Despite the time offerred to do a deal they have called MB's bluff and he has revealed a Royal Flush hand. Not much time before a claim under the trade agreement is lodged then...

Here is my current thought in regard to deal (or at least the one for this morning) - the following is all pure conjecture.

What if the last but one extension was to pressure a deal - PAT (and LCM funder), local fovt miner and RoJ. Lets say for a moment that this worked and on the eve of the deadline, agreement was reached in principle. Team write up a heads of terms for the agreement - agreement reached. Happy days right? But you cant announce at this stage - there is no legal agreement. So 1 week extension ending Friday communicated to allow the lawyers to draft to the heads of terms and then today / tomorrow the owners to review and hopefully agree the documents. Otherwise why the shortened extension period. Still doesnt ensure announcement, but explains the shortening of the timeline from prior periods.

Lets say thats the case, thats big work and the big incentive for the lawyers is not having to work the weekend and we announce tomorrow.

Or not...

GLA

NtD