Member Info for Neilius

What are the flow numbers expected to be? What’s the likelihood they may be less than hoped for? I presume it’s normal to under estimate so as they exceed expectations?

Hi GetOnYerBike,

The amount of hype and publicity around this share, and the Falklands in general, back in the day was huge, my view is the same will happen again on FID or maybe before as this ramps up.

The NAV, the sensible calculated value, is one thing, I’m pretty sure most of that £5 share price back in the day wasn’t built on the solid numbers we have today (noting an awareness of the dilution).

Hopefully it’ll return..!

Historically good news used to result in lower share prices with RKH, this appears to have reversed now. We all read the reports, the analysts, that blog that someone posted the other day and they nearly all say this is a buy. Where there is a real person doing these things they have sat and done their numbers and, referencing the blog, this share is well undervalued. So, any slightly good news just brings in more confidence and more money.

I estimated £1.50 on FID at the beginning of the year, I think one of the highest guesses, and I’ve read nothing, seen nothing, that makes me think any different.

Time will tell, but folks buying in now are presumably thinking that this is getting in low for what comes next.

It’s probably been mentioned numerous times but these days of where the price is moving to a new high and then looking back in the charts and finding out when the price was last this high, slightly more than ten years ago, it’s hard not to get a bit of a lift.

If someone had said to me this time next year we’d be at 60p I’d have laughed at them. The previous two years we’d endlessly bumped along at less than 15p, and that was a relief to us that had endured the years previous to that.

Good times, a few ins and outs, and a bit of a way to go yet hopefully, but sometimes it’s good just to stand and look back, and down, to where we came from.

Thanks nikb,

Pretty much sums up what I was thinking was happening.

If RKH is coming up as a BUY or Strong BUY on a wide range of platforms and people that would not normally have heard of it will be coming aware.

Interested to see what this week brings..!

I mentioned a week ago or so that my trading platform, Interactive Investor, had gone from 2 out of 3 recommendations for RKH as a BUY to 3 out of 3.

I presume that some folks or small caps funds even, search for high potential small caps shares and buy into them, almost automatically.

As a query, has anyone got any SELL or HOLD recommendations on their trading platforms or from

any analysts they follow? I’m getting the impression that all arrows are beginning to point in the same direction…

A feel good Sunday thought…

I’ve been mulling this theory over since the AGM, interested to float it out there, BTW, this isn’t meant to be a rampy sort of comment but is inevitably more towards that end of things.

Frankly anyone involved in looking at this share has some (!!) level of appetite for risk…and I don’t see that much risk left on the table, yes, insurance payment and equity raise for sure, not insignificant but ultimately, as these are planned steps towards FID before year end, does anyone seriously think a share bought on Friday, even considering dilution, will be worth less by January 2026..?

The media hasn’t picked this up yet, this is a story that is going to be huge once it starts moving, but I do note my (American) broker has already gone from RKH being 2/3 to 3/3 as a buy, a lot of people are taking notice, this genie isn’t going back into its bottle..!

In short, my point is that , for the first time, I can see a clear(ish) path to FID and I think others will as well, therefore I think we are heading towards another significant upward re-rating . If this does start to happen the process will be compounded by the reduction in effect of dilution by the increase in share price.

Anyway, I’m half asleep in an airport lounge heading to another South American based oil field for another month and that’s my positive thought for today. Tell me I’m wrong..!!??

Thanks again to the AGM attendees and posters, the facts were interesting, the comments on the body language and vibes were as important in my view.

Have a great weekend,

Cheers…

Well, insurance news and first oil in GoM/A to look forward to.

Frankly my worries have been dilution and how much that would be. I prefer their approach of working out what they need and adding a chunk on, that’s what I’d do in their shoes as well, why get caught short?

At 45p a £60m raise would be a 25% increase in shares, for a small company, and considering the upside, at this share price, not a massive dilution in my opinion.

We knew there would be some dilution and the unknown is always worse than the known. I’d rather have a well funded RKH rather than a drip drip situation.

I can see the share price drop but a proper plan to FID without guesstimates, hopes of court cases, lawyers, and will they, won’t they farm ins, is worse in my view.

Hi to those at AGM

Any updates as the meeting progresses would be much appreciated, particularly the payment of insurance.

Thanks

@CitizenTS

Ah yes, I see that now. I don’t know why I missed this at the time, I think everyone is aware that it’s all online on presumedly multiple servers anyway.

An Iranian missle hit the Israeli Stock Exchange today…

https://youtube.com/shorts/rGRxzpeCEBo?si=FsFum7NfUbvLEcpd

For those seeking Navitas shares…

I have IBKR and Navitas Petroleum is listed on the TASE but there is no ability to buy stock.

Maybe you have to dig into what exchanges you are able to bid on but there is nothing on the app that I can see.

I was of the same mind some time ago but hit the same wall but didn’t take it any further.

Neilius all of the time, nebulous some of the time…!

And there’s me trying to be concise and to the point Mr Ovets..!

My understanding was that the initial idea of bonds that had the benefit of being anonymous to loans, which are cheaper had been deemed possible? In short , my take on this was that funding was possible but funding on better terms would take a little longer but be more cost efficient.

If my take on the above correct I’m unsure why folks are saying funding is an issue?

Thanks LTT,

A nuanced, knowledgeable and thoughtful answer, exactly what I was after.

To others, asking a question on this forum shouldn’t be immediately deemed as someone playing a game, the money I’ve got in this, it’s no game to me.

The Sell on my post was a fat fingers moment!!

Not wishing to create drama but is the reality that we are looking at an equity raise before FID? Not seen anyone mention this other than right after the annulment news came through.

Against RKH?

I ‘ve been discussing today’s events with a mate who I’ve spoken to before and, as it currently stands, -12% in a day, he pointed out that for a small cap share it is less volatile than Tesla…not too bad tbh, at least we know now.