Member Info for neilin62

My thoughts on today's interview.....
2 weeks ago, Allan did an interview (sunday roast)
Something caught my attention and i replayed the clip numerous times. Have a listen at time frame 38:36 when he was asked about the timing of the Conduit / Murphy listing.
The first time i heard it, i thought it was just a sound glitch.
But the more times i listened to it, i became convinced that it wasn't. The date sounds like September / October to me. I believe it was deliberately obscured.
Why? well today's interview may explain it.
Allan told us that we have the Automated Platform all ready to go, and it is the reagents/antibodies that we are waiting for.
He gave the time frame of getting the kit to clinical trials 6 months from delivery of these along with the SOP.
Now, here is where a number of "coincidences" appear (to me) to align.
1. Conduit / Murphy listing expected September/October
2. Our kit ready for clinical trials September/October (from the above timescales)
3. Fairjourney Biologics (our reagent antibody manufacturers) are hosting one of the biggest conferences in the world - The anti-bodies Series 2023 September 6th - 8th
Is it possible that within the next say 4 weeks, we will get an RNS advising that all required components of the kit is now delivered and ready to proceed towards clinical trials? and one later (September?) advising that trials are in commenced?
I can also see other RNS 's being released inbetween these dates to say that China is also now under way.
Just my thoughts, but it all seems to fit.
Neil

C1p2D
My post 15/02/23 @ 00:49, and subsequent post 18/03/23 @ 09:19 gives you some numbers.
Just about to post something on today's news.
Neil
Neil

Hi Greend100
Yes, and no....
It was initially developed using Western Blot technique to prove the concept, which it did.
As it worked, it was then decided that Western Blot technique is not suitable for commercial scale in hospital environment, so an Elisa sandwich Immunoassay was developed. I posted a while back that i had found some research where trials were carried out a couple of years ago, that proved that the Elisa test worked.
Now we are refining it via optimisation for the actual kit to be manufactured for commercialisation.
re the efficacy, it would be expected to be the same as the initial Elisa test, but since we are on the optimisation, i would expect it to be slightly better than the previous results, since that is what optimisation is all about.
Development of the actual kit is in regard to the physical parameters.
i.e. are we going for a standards 92 cell plate test or something other>

Neil

Hi Greeend100
re your last line.... "and if can get this working in an ELISA test...."
It has already been proven to work in an Elisa test.
We are now at the stage of optimisation of the assays, and developing the kit format into one that can be used for high throughput in hospitals.
Bearsand bulls, you may find some of my previous posts on the subject of Galleri interesting.

Just as a side note, i noticed Jace's valuation possibilities being queried..,,just to add that Grail (Galleri's developer) is in fact a spin out from Grail who currently buying the company back for $7.1billion.

Neil

NHS won't be buying the China tests. They are manufactured/marketed under a completely different format, and regulatory requirement, and will not have UKCA accreditation, therefore not eligible for distribution in UK.
I know the UK market potential was stated as £20.7m in the prospectus, but given things have moved on since then i would put it quite a bit higher now.
If you use the example of the Galleri test being an initial test figure of 1 million tests by NHS, then unless we sell our (far superior) test for peanuts, then i would expect it to be nearer the £100m mark.
Just my own opinion, but i think it wrong to say day traders are out......day traders will always be present, as there is potential to make a profit on very short term basis if you are prepared to risk it. Each to their own, but as i have said many times,,,,,,,i'm not here to make a few quid.
Neil

Couple of the LRGS trades popped up there LB.
Neil

LB you holding a minimum of 31m shares? LOL it's okay i know what you meant.
Mr Lang is a recent investor.
Much more relevant in my opinion, are the un-named investors who took the "placing shares" when we first listed.
They are clearly here for a substantial return on their initial investment bearing in mind the paid 10p per share 2 years ago. There is also a clue as to their expectations if you look deep enough ;-)
Neil

Hi OAP20
I mentioned previously that people should look past the attention grabbing headline of "we have a test than detect 50 cancers" All sounds amazing until you look at the numbers. detecting 50 cancers with one test ( at present at least) is simply nowhere near as accurate as a single cancer test.
In their recent Pathfinder study they have revealed that their positive predictive value (PPV) of the test they used was worse than expected, and worse than the previous version. - almost 47% dropped to 38%.
Worse than that, 29.8% of the participants were told they had cancer and underwent invasive procedures after the Galleri test told them they had cancer, only to find that the didn't have cancer at all!

We are working towards supporting the NHS and my own opinion is that as soon as we have commercialisation of our test in China Or US (more likely to be US i think as this is based on a different manufacturing basis to China),
an announcement will be made to say that we have entered into an agreement to get our test into NHS.
This will run alongside Galleri for 2 main reasons
1. The won't just abandon their test as it will provide a lot of data
2. The NHS are desperate for SOMETHING to help alleviate the dire situation they are in, and i think they will take it even if results aren't as good as they could be.
3. It will give a direct comparison results wise.
I am not worried about them going full on for the Galleri test in full as it is certainly not cheaper than ours (they will not confirm the price of the kits), but when you consider they are charging $949.00 in the US, whatever our cost is, £100 or $100, it will be far cheaper than theirs and far more accurate.
Incidentally there is a clause in the agreement that NHS will only pay for the Galleri tests if they subsequently achieve the required results.
Hope this helps.
Neil

Hi C1p2D
About a week or so ago, i posted a comment that may be worth looking at on this subject.
Not only would our test be used for monitoring, but prognostic, diagnostic, companionship etc, so far more than just a simple diagnostic kit.

Neil

Just to clear up a few slight misunderstandings......The reason the US and China are the first markets to get into, is because they are paying for all the development work, clinical trials, marketing etc, and not us. This saves us an absolute fortune in regard to these costs. The only thing we have to do is supply the Mab's and reagents. (which incidentally they will pay us for).In the US, we are doing this via Corepath, who are developing the test kits, as LDT's. Given that they are CLIA accredited, this speeds up the process. Similar in China. So when Allan says it is "criminal we are not the main partner" this is purely time / accreditation related. Get US and China to develop them, get them into trials, and then validate the results, and submit to NHS for trial and achieve UKCA /CE mark. This is a longer process than either the US or China because of regulatory requirements.The successful roll out in either of these countries will go a long way to providing validation that we require to submit in trials for UK / EUIncidentally, it is important to note we are not going for FDA APPROVAL in the US. We are going for CLEARANCE - a totally different thing, and much quicker.re buying us out and current MCAP, the reason for this low figure is entirely due to us being pre-revenue, and as such, markets simply have no way of valuing us with any meaningful result. You only have to look at the wide range of "valuations" that posters on here have come up with. Once we have the tests commercially available, and know what the price will be, then you will see a BIG change, as it will give some indication of what value we have. Then it is time for the big boys to take note. They will take note primarily because the numbers will be off the scale. Don't forget these numbers that are being bandied around are based on the Lung cancer tests only ! Factor in detection of other cancer types, companion diagnostics, etc, and no one knows where this will go.I read a paper last night that was released in Australia at 1pm yesterday and they are now looking at implementing a cancer screening program specifically at lung cancer, as they have a huge problem with it being late diagnosed with only a 20% rate, and reference UK and NHS programs.A new market for us possibly?Neil

"........and the NHS couldn't give a damn...Fine let China and US solve their health crisis whilst the UK stick to expensive, painful, needless treatment...."
Erm, you are aware aren't you that we are progressing towards a market launch and preparation for a clinical trial to support the NHS?
Neil

Morning LB
Do you see a similar pattern to previous trades last week prior to the rises?
My take is that the two sharp drops this morning are the MM's fishing for shares for a buy order.
Neil

Mazik
Almost correct.
The amount attributable to the options on Conduit / Murphy is £3.25million
($4,884,367 at today's exchange rate)
But the amount of further value is increased, as we are due an upfront payment of £200,000 on commencement of companion diagnostic project with SGSC
We are also due (well overdue at the last count) approx £53,000 from a certain shareholder that did not honour his debt at the time.

I have posed a number of questions to the company, who i have always found to be very approachable.
Some of which were responded to, by advising that they could not comment on, as that information requires to be revealed to market by way of RNS.
Other questions i asked are awaiting a response.
Neil

"there is no reason for the option price to be less than half the current sp".....
Well yes there is actually.
Options are issued based on the VWAP of the previous month, not on an arbitrary number decided by the BOD.
The options are granted in lieu of 2 years pay rises, so a longer term commitment than just next year.
Assuming that all the BOD take up all the options, they will have to stump up a serious amount of money in order to facilitate them.
I will reserve judgement for now.
Neil

Not attending the San Diego event obviously!
Neil

Some very relevent events upcoming to us :

7th Annual Liquid Biopsy for precision oncology summit San Diego
14th - 16th February 2023
Fast-Tracking Your Test Approvals & Reimbursement Path with Strategic Partnerships to Benefit Patients

The 7th Liquid Biopsy for Precision Oncology Summit returns as the largest and most comprehensive forum for all stakeholders in the field to tap into the promising opportunities that revolutionize the entire cancer patient care continuum from early translation all the way through to clinical development and commercialization.

13th World (Europe) Clinical Biomarker & CDx Europe Summit 2023 London
April 26th & 27th 3023

Accelerating Biomarker-Driven Drugs into Clinical Trials Whilst Strategising Your CDx Development, IVDR Compliance & Commercialisation Path to Improve Clinical Decision Making & Patient Outcomes

Not confirmed, but i wonder if Allan Syms and/or Dawn Coverley will be making an appearance.
Neil

theonlywayis....
If you are a bit emotional now you better stock up on the Kleenex !
Share price will go up, and fall back as the newbies cash out with 100% profits at these levels and some LTH's decide they just want their stake back. It will be like this for a while until news of commercialization is announced. Then it will really rise. Thereafter, it will follow the same pattern, but incrementally higher, until further news.
The thing is, there is so much news to come.
Further agreements.
Licensing.
But the really big news items will be on the new projects we are engaging in.
The ULTIMATE news is an announcement that we have developed a lateral flow test. Just think for a minute what that means in terms of our potential market.
Trust me, a rise of 20 -30% will be NOTHING!!!
Much has been discussed about Martin Lang. Yes he /they have taken a large stake here. However, there are other investors that also have a large holding, and deliberately keeping under the 3% reporting threshold so they are not required to disclose their identity.
Widglide apologies for my pop at you recently. It was nothing personal, just that when i spend so much time and effort on my research, and things look so clear to me, i find it hard to keep down my frustration that others can't see it. But that is my problem not yours. I'm just pleased to see you feeling a little more happy with the rises lately.
The newcomers will have the upper hand on us long term holders, as they got in a lot lower than us, but don't worry - you WILL be rewarded.

Neil

Think i need a new laptop !
Don't know what happened to the paragraphs on that last post, and Novacyt were trading at £11.90, not £1.90 !
Neil

Dr Tom Roques interview on TV this morning.....NHS misses their target of cancer treatment Record high number of 7 million patients awaiting treatment2000 doctors needed just to cope with diagnosing patientsMost of those patients will turn out not to have cancer, but will still have to go through tests, surgery to confirm cancer or no cancer........If only there was a test that could rule out up to 90% of those patients. Anybody know of one?LB one example of how a share price can do what Jace commented on......Novacyt. trading at 6 pence. within 2 years, after announcing their successful development of covid test, trading at £1.90 - It can be done. Neil

Computer crashed....
DD77 as you appear well aquainted with M&A valuation, can you provide the board with your calculations as to how Astra Zeneca's valuation worked for the purchase last month of Neogene ($320million)
or the purchase in November of Teneo Two for $1.3billion)
or the intended purchase of Cincore for an upfront fee of $1.8billion?

Neil