Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
apologies, my fat fingers hit the wrong key, and sent half a message.......
The main case for the FTC centres around the fact that Grail / Illumina would have a monopoly on the supply of reagents to it's customers, as they are reliant on Illumina's platform only being able to use Grail (hence Illumina's) sequencing. They effectively have their customers/suppliers by the proverbials.
Now, if these customers / competition decided to use a different manufacturer of these items, think how that would open the market to us. We have already been told we are signing licencing agreements to supply our intellectual property (CIZ1B) to other manufacturers of diagnostic testing equipment, and how we are further engaging other manufacturers of the reagents required.
I believe we may see some of these disgruntled customers/competition of Grail signing up for our product.
Also in the document is a very interesting comment. In their defence, they state that neither the US or the EU should have objected to the merger, since they have "no products or services" in the Europe. So how does that align with the fact that they are conducting trials with the NHS? ( only on patients in the 50 - 77 year age group) Last time i looked, the UK was still in Europe. I am quite sure Margrethe Vestager (European Competition Commissioner) will be well aware of this claim, but i will drop her an email to be sure.
Regarding previous posts concerned about Grail being competition for us, their documents reveal that they are not looking at selective cancer detection, but, against previous concerns by professionals and investors, that they are looking at a detector kit of at LEAST 10 different cancers. So to me at least, no real threat of competition.
They do give a figure of projected revenue stream of some $50 billion being the case for cancer screening.
I also read a further study that stated that their kit only identified 38% of patients with cancer and completely missed a significant number in the trial, that went on to develop later stage cancers.
Also of note.... Illumina's stock price dropped 60% since mid 2021 due to investors getting nervous about "rival companies making significant developments" and their gene sequencing platform being so expensive.
Come on Allan, time to give us our reward.
Neil
hailow18
Thank you for the compliment.
I believe that the optimisation of the assays are complete, or aT least will be in coming days. Whether this will be notified by RNS or not, i am not sure, but it will provide the pathway clear to supply the antigens/reagents to China, if not already done so. (it's possible that we have already supplied some, to progress the kit manufacture, and the optimisation is to further advance the development of CIZ1B as a biomarker for other kits)
I have just completed reading up on the Illumina/Grail anti-trust case with the FTC in USA. This document is their defence submission to FTC in response to the case brought against them, which i previously posted about.
The document (Docket 9041 if anyone is interested) is 203 pages long, and heavily redacted, but it does contain some interesting notes.
The main case for the FTC
To all holders, especially the "old gang"....
You know my stance on making my position clear, and never being swayed by my research.
I realise that this message will come across as somewhat cryptic in it's content. I apologise for that in advance. It is not inside information, but out of respect for the individual(s) concerned, i will not reveal who, or what was communicated, other than to give the following update from me.
I have been in touch with someone VERY professional, and VERY connected with the work within NHS in the development of early cancer detection. The reason for my contact with them was to ascertain that they were aware of the development of our test kit(s).
I can confirm that yes, they are aware of us, and thanking me for highlighting it.
Do not rely on anything i may say in these posts as a basis for your investments.
But to put my money where my mouth is, the buy at 10:01 for 500,000 shares was me.
Neil
To follow on from my post about the recent advert, i looked a bit deeper.
What do i find?
Well, who knew that we have two new "employees"?
Number one.
No other than Bill Behnke (yes, THAT Bill Behnke) who apparently is our Senior Consultant for Business Development. Now the interesting thing here is the time-line. January 2021 to present. ........Jan 2021 suggests to me that the involvement of the Behnke Group was considered right from the outset, and certainly formed part of the plan for the IPO.
Number two.
Kelly Lewins. She is our Marketing Communications Manager engaged Feb 2022 to present. So the comments on "no marketing" taking place seem unfounded.
I will take a bet on a significant RNS either in September, or early October.
Neil
I see a position advertised for role of Research Technician to assist Dr Dawn Coverley in supporting the development of assays for CIZ1B biomarkers for test kits closed on Tuesday 30th August.
Funded from an external source.
Neil
Further....
Illumina launched an appeal in an attempt to have the investigation lifted by offering "concessions"
The EU General Court rejected the appeal and said the investigation is to continue.
The action was brought by "an unnamed third party" under Article 22 of the EUMR.
I wonder who would want to stop Illumina controlling the market? Could it be someone who has an interest in UK, EU, USA, & China? I seem to remember someone who has a long relationship with China. Just a thought....
Illumina's accounts show an accrual of $453milion in expectation of the fine being imposed by the EU.
They also show an accrual of $156million in settlement of a legal claim brought by BGI China
I know who i would rather be dealing with!
Neil
Just a few things to note.
1. Illumina's takeover of Grail has been vetoed by the FTS in US in an antitrust lawsuit. It is also the subject of international investigation by EU In 2020, Illumina was forced to abandon a takeover of Pacific Biosciences in a similar lawsuit.
2. By completing the deal in violation of FTC approval, the company risks a fine of 10% of it's entire global revenue.
3. The antitrust lawsuit is based in the fact that Illumina / Grail has competitors that rely on their provision of gene sequencing. So they could stifle competition by being the only provider.
4. Note the sentence "Aims to detect....." Ours is proved to detect!
5. Note the sentence "No results yet"
6. Illumina has no sales in EU, and is not likely to have, given the antitrust cases in Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, and Turkey.
I repeat from earlier messages.... this test is aimed specifically at the already at risk, higher age group. Our test has no pre risk requirement, or age limit.
Even IF, the NHS takes up their test, all this just goes to prove is that our test is seriously required, not least to stop one single rival company holding the world to ransom.
Neil
Hi The Oracle.
I mean Cizzle.
Pharma's are known for their initial conception, then outsourcing (with support) to other companies with the capability of development / test / commercialisation of the product. It is at this point that the original company steps in and wants the future benefit. In our case, it is not just a single product, nor a single market.
As well as expanding our range of detection tests, we are busy signing agreements in other countries.
One thing that no one has even mentioned, and i hesitate to dare mention it myself, is the fact that we are only talking about test kits.
It is possible the CIZ1 monoclonal antibody can form part of a TREATMENT for cancer. I.E. development into drugs.
A monoclonal antibody drug can fight cancer in a number of different ways...
They can coat the cancer cells and make them easy to target for destruction.
They can trigger the immune system to destroy the cell membrane.
They can block cell growth which cancer relies on for survival.
They can block blood cell production to the cancer cells.
They can block immune system inhibitors, allowing your body to produce the cells required to fight the cancer cells.
They can attach themselves to the cancer cells and cause them to self destruct internally.
They can deliver a radiation particle or chemotherapy directly to the cancer cells without affecting good cells.
If we eventually develop from test kits to monoclonal antibody drug treatments, i can't even imagine what this could be worth.
Actually, i can.
If you look at a post i made June 14th 2021, you may get the idea.
(And just look who is mentioned !)
Neil
Hi Cymru229,
Thank you for your kind post. Yes, i'm still here. The wife has a bit of a health issue, so not been posting much of late, but i do still try and catch up with the messages, and see what else i can find.
I was actually about to post on Wednesday evening that i was expecting news on the Arcadia front, and i'm glad i didn't now, as the timing may well have raised a few eyebrows.
That one piece of news is very good news in itself, with SGSC in talks with other pharmaceuticals to fund additional studies and bring it to the market, making us one step closer to realising the royalty payments we would be due, which would be pretty substantial in my view given that it is not just being marketed as a covid treatment, but in conjunction with diabetes, and other pulmonary issues, of which there are many conditions.
Again, i would look at who the initial beneficiaries of this treatment are (AZ) and i still maintain that at some point, they will take us over. But even better news is the success of the antibody & reporter protein. Amongst the news was the little snippet of info stating that we now have a new project primarily focusing on breast cancer. Some of you long term holders may remember i mentioned in a post quite a while back, that while watching the webinar with Dawn Coverley, that the question was asked "can this test be used to detect other forms of cancer" and that her expression was very telling. I am damn sure she knew at that point what she had, and where it could be used, and now it is confirmed.
I would also put my last penny on betting that this is not the end of the matter. Do not be surprised to find news in future telling us that the test can be used to detect colon cancer, pancreatic cancer, etc etc. It is all about the particular protein that gives the best marker for a specific cancer. And we have been told that they are "extending the range to detect other cancers" and that we are engaging other suppliers to provide further antibodies. Now, you don't do something like that unless you know what is coming!
On the China front, i would expect to see news pretty soon , given that we now have a successfully produced antibody, and the protein ready for development of the test. Something along the lines of the time of supply to China the reagents/antibodies to commence manufacture of the test kits.
More good news is the deal being made between Behnke / Cizzle / Fairjourney.
America is a massive market and since they don't have a 'free at point of use' health care system, getting a test such as ours into their market would be a major coup. I did a few "back of an envelope" sums just playing around with numbers for this market alone - number of cases, likely take up of our kit, an average price per kit, and the alternative costs to the medical insurance companies for conventional cancer detection/treatment, and the numbers are quite honestly staggering. The current Mcap would look even more of a pittance than now.
Morning all,
Had that news been announced on another day then i'm sure we would have seen a better result.
The raise in interest rates by BOE, and the biggest rise in 28 years by the FED coupled with recession fears, continuing war in Ukraine, gave the world markets the jitters. The stock market took a real battering yesterday. FTSE alone lost nearly 300 points at one stage.
Personally (and probably a little selfish) as schalfenplanet says, just means i get more for my money.
All the bad news about rising costs etc, can actually be a benefit to CIZ. Governments, health departments etc are feeling more pressure on their financial resources to supply healthcare for less. What better time to find they can cut their cancer pathway costs with a cheap test?
I think that the BOD are pretty confident of the expected outcome of the reagents/test currently in process, and i would expect at least one more announcement before the big RNS about China.
One thing to keep in mind.....would you be going out and signing up new MOU's, agreements, etc if you didn't actually have something to offer?
re the comment about Allan Syms buying, have you considered the possibility that due to the continued newsflow,
that the directors are in a closed period? i.e. they are in possession of information classed as insider information under MAR, so can't buy in.
Neil
PushTheButton
The amount of approx £23m is not losses attributable to PSL/Bould.
Bould Opportunities was the transient company set up in order to perform the RTO (before we/they knew the company we were going to RTO into)
It is an aggregate consideration of £21million by way of approx. 206m shares issued to RTO to get us listed on LSE main market. It was further supported by private placement of 22 million shares to raise £2.2million.
As it was a shares consideration, it's not a case of having to repay anything. There is nothing further to pay....that's it. Bould opportunities then became Cizzle Biotech.
It is showing on the accounts, as the £23m has to be shown in accounting procedure as to where the value came from / went to.
re a takeover...... personally, i think some of the names mentioned aren't the ones i'm interested in. I said last year that i expected us to get into companion drugs/diagnostics/re-i purposing, which has happened. I also believed that we would get bought out by one particular company, that i mentioned at the time that has previously presented opportunities to companies to develop products on their behalf, and then when successful, bought them out. Since then we have entered into contract with this company and this only strengthens my belief, that we will develop their products, and it will, at some point in the future, be a case of "thanks very much, we'll take it from here". Whether that will include the C1ZIB side of the company, just their own interest, or the entire company, well that's anyone's guess at the minute.
Jace86 sorry, late reply but... i don't think we are a million miles apart on our respective views as to the value here. Believe it or not ( i know how positive my posts seem) but i am trying to keep my posts a bit on the "calm" side!
Neil
Widglide is not a troll. I can confirm he is one of the long term holders here, and is understandably disappointed with the performance of the share price at present.
As some have mentioned recently, and my posts on previous occasions, i can virtual guarantee that had we not approved the RTO, then ALL our money would have been lost. I know the consolidation is a big issue for some, but it was a necessary (if painful) part of the return to the market.
I am perfectly satisfied with the actions taken by the BOD so far, with regards to licensing, joint ventures, collaborations etc.
Compared to the old BOU, we are given news at every opportunity, and at some point, when the news that we have a commercially approved test, this will surprise most.
China, USA, Canada, EU, NHS to mention but a few markets.
Not only that, but we have the companion drugs / diagnostics alongside our product. And, the re-purposing of drugs not yet brought to commercial market.
Widglide you do not annoy me, and my comments today were just my sense of humour. No offence was intended.
You know my usual caveat about not relying on other peoples opinions , but sit tight, and ignore the day to day share price.
As i said on previous posts, i am not in this to make a few thousand quid. I am expecting a significant return on my investment.
Neil
"3 people involved and the outsource everything"
Was that a serious comment?
Maybe you should give Touker Suleyman a ring and tell him where he has been going wrong al these years outsourcing his manufacturing to - where is it? - oh yes, China.
Dawn Cleverley has spent 20 years research and developing the basis of C1Z1 to get it to a stage for commercialization.
Do you think Allan Symms sits in a lab all day concocting antigens and reagents?
You previously commented about the amount of time the BOD spend on this. Why not give Peter Jones a shout and see if he is working 24/7 on his Reggae Reggae sauce!!!!
PS the Chinese are paying for the development and trial of the kits, so they are saving us a fortune.
Neil
DO NOT MAKE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION BASED ON ANYTHING I POST !
I recently asked a question of the BOD (which i will not reveal)
The response was that it would not be possible to confirm or otherwise comment on my question, as the answer to that particular question would constitute me being classed as an insider.
With that in mind, i have to remain careful of what i do post, but the following is not inside information.
As the long term holders on this board are aware, i do my research, and occasionally find things from medical papers as far away as Peru, Vietnam,etc.
While doing a bit more research this week, i have stumbled across an article regarding a company that is supporting the NHS in terms of testing amongst other disciplines. What struck me was their URGENT UK NEED FOR A BLOOD TEST FOR CANCER to complement their portfolio. The are already in the UK market, and are expanding massively. They are an international company that has a massive market.
Just to be sure they are aware of Cizzle Biotech and development of our test kit, i made contact with them, and i have emailed them details.
Whether they will respond or not i don't yet know, and if they do, to what extent they will divulge any information and what if anything, i can post here.
I won't post details of the company in question, in case their IS a deal being made behind the scenes, for fear of scuppering it, and i think it would be wise if anyone else identifies them, to maybe refrain from making it known.
Again, don't rely on anything i post, as there is always the possibility that i am barking up the wrong tree, but here's hoping.
On one front or another, i don't think it will be too long before we have news.
Neil
Ba55Mann
Do not pay any attention to the buys and sells or red and blue shown on here.
There are merely a"best guess" by an automated algorithm based around the median.
I can absolutely guarantee you that the "sells" showing up yesterday were not all sells. I know because some of those so called sells were in fact me buying more.
Neil
Apologies in advance for the long post...
I think there is a bit of a perception that we are "starting from scratch" regarding the data requirements and progression to validation.
This isn't true. There have been a number of studies and trials already performed with C1ZIb. In fact, have just read up on an article submitted by author Nguyen Linh Toan to the Journal of Military Pharmaco-medicine in Vietnam.
The article centres on tests carried out on 151 patients sampled at (1)175 Military Hospital, (2) Vietnam Military Medical University, (3) 108 Military Central Hospital. (accuracy shown to be 95 -98% across the 4 independent sample sets.
I believe that 4 independent sample sets on a total of 486 patients as proof of concept has been carried out so far with an accuracy of 95-98% across the 4 sets.
Other biomarker tests utilising immunoassays already meet with FDA regulatory requirements for 510(k) and i am sure that this, coupled with retrospective data analysis, will make the process less time consuming than normal application for approval/clearance. In addition to this, our test will be a class 2 device which requires less clinical evidence.
The BOD believe that the outcome of this retrospective clinical study and it's acceptance by the regulatory bodies, could have a significant bearing on subsequent stages.
Disregarding the Chinese tie up for a minute, our nearest rival ( if you can call their test a rival!) Galleri is being sold in certain states of the US at a price of $949. We would be looking to sell our test at a price of $400 so less than half price for a test that is far superior to theirs. Their private medical insurance companies will b e all over this at half of what they currently pay.
The potential market available to us from the US is in the region of $115million
Our test is being developed specifically aimed at LUNG cancer. You should note that by splicing the CIZ protein with other variants, this test can then be developed to detect a multitude of other cancer types.
Finally, mention has been made of the cash position. As far as i am aware, we are still in a good position. I also believe that our accounts will show that we should be subject to tax credits under R&D
I stated over a year ago, that when we re-list, that we would come off AIM and list on the main market. This was for a specific reason. It opens us up to interest by the big players, and allows us easier access to further funding if required (i don't expect that this will be required for the near future given the agreements that we have entered into)
However, i do believe that CIZ1B is only one aspect of our future portfolio, and other developments will follow on from this.
And really finally....i believe the share price is being played. I have been watching the trades recently. Some of the shenanigans noticed,- Short position taken, pre market open price up 9.7%, 6.75%, then dropped on open. Add in to this a MM that submitted an ammended trade.
P.S. I also mentioned some time back, (last year ) that in my opinion, when we do get approval/clearance/CE mark, that i would not be surprised if at that point, having proved up our test, if a certain company bought us out. That company is involved already in one of our agreements, and today i learn that they have just agreed to buy out Sierra Oncology in a deal worth $1.9 billion.
Neil