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Brockham Operations Update
Thu, 25th Apr 2019 18:30
"Work commenced three days earlier than expected on April 9th and our planning consent only permits us to work until midday on Saturdays (half days) and not at all on Sundays or Bank Holidays. Therefore there was no work carried out at all between Friday 19th and Monday 22nd and there will be no work carried out on Monday 6th May."
http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=ANGS&ArticleCode=sk85rsb0&ArticleHeadline=Brockham_Operations_Update
Wolf - Agree, which is why Technical Analysis should always be used with conjunction with market research. Anything outside of that cannot be predicted at all.
Russell - Can't comment on what's holding it back following the sheer volume and buying pressure today. What experience does tell me is that if we receive good news next week this will explode
On what basis? The only time this would have been worth shorting in the recent 3 months would have been following the most recent placing. Even then, the market pretty much opened at the placing price so why would there be a significant number of shorts enough to keep the price down at these levels?
How about you provide evidence for you comment instead of asking others to evidence otherwise?
Revised to reflect $25/barrel production cost... 250 bopd with 65% interest giving 162 bopd to Angus
Lets say we operate at that capacity 5 days a week (allowing for weekend restrictions or other short term slow downs)
5 days x 52 weeks = 260 days
162bopd x 260 days = 42,120 Barrels per year (to Angus)
Conservative price of $70/barell
Assuming a low of $25/barrel production costs....
Total net approx. $45
Based on the above figures...
250bopd > 42,120 x $45 = $1.895m (£1.457m per year)
500bopd > 84,240 x $45 = $3.790m (£2.914m per year)
750bopd > 126,360 x $45 = $5.686m (£4.371m per year)
1000bopd > 168,480 x $45 = $7.581m (£5.829m per year)
I think its also important to manage expectations, the above number are very conservative and include contingencies. From my perspective anything commercially viable would be a win, anything from the above numbers would be huge.
Calculations here... Assuming 250 bopd with 65% interest giving 162 bopd to Angus
Lets say we operate at that capacity 5 days a week (allowing for weekend restrictions or other short term slow downs)
5 days x 52 weeks = 260 days
162bopd x 260 days = 42,120 Barrels per year (to Angus)
Conservative price of $70/barell
Assuming (again a very conservative) $40 production costs....
Total net approx. $30
Based on the above figures...
250bopd > 42,120 x $30 = $1.263m (£972k per year)
500bopd > 84,240 x $30 = $2.527m (£1.944m per year)
750bopd > 126,360 x $30 = $3.790m (£2.916m per year)
1000bopd > 168,480 x $30 = $5.054m (£3.888m per year)
That's from Brockham alone...
There's a little more to it than an unjustified SP drop over a 6 month period... Factoring in fundraising, a number of placements and some *historic* bad decisions I think most of the drop is somewhat justified (following the news trail of course).
The company is now at a pivotal point and have the challenge of turning sentiment around. If they get Brockham right this time, not only will they demonstrate that they can actually deliver within a specified timeframe under the new BOD and restore some faith in management.
Nhawan - Based on my understanding of the isolation process, it is fairly straight forward and not uncommon within the industry.
As the most recent RNS has stated that we are still in target for water isolation completion with just under 2.5 days remaining (counting today, half Saturday and Tuesday as worst case), I am fairly confident that we will receive news of successful water isolation by Monday morning. My opinion of course...
There have only been 2 sells from my perspective and that's for anything less than 4p. I have been getting quoted less than 4p to sell any quantity all morning (not that I have any intention of selling at these rediculously low prices)
Mirasol - Prior to placing 10p would have been achievable if they had stuck to the original plan and all went smoothly. It's going to take a bigger push to get us there now but it's definitely not out of the question IMO... Yet...
Not the only one today... The below are the 1m+ buys from the afternoon (could go further back to the morning trades)
01-May-19 16:42:41 4.30 1,000,000 £43.00k
01-May-19 16:40:27 4.25 1,000,000 £42.50k
01-May-19 13:20:11 4.189 1,764,705 £73.92k
01-May-19 14:15:34 4.20 1,000,000 £42.00k
01-May-19 14:12:27 4.23 1,000,000 £42.30k
Total Volume: 5.76m shares
Total Price: £243,720
RealAnalyst - I believe the extract is from the 'Brockham Well Test Update' RNS - Mon, 4th Feb 2019 07:00
http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=ANGS&ArticleCode=xpl304c9&ArticleHeadline=Brockham_Well_Test_Update