blissful - Agreed... Based on the most recent Tweet:
"Rig mobilisation and campsite installation at Heron-1 in progress ahead of planned spud #MATD"
https://twitter.com/Petro_Matad/status/1146708372273750016
Key words being 'Rig mobilisation and campsite installation'. Not long now... With Red deer to follow shortly after.
Obelix - If you are referring to the COS (Chance of Success) for Heron 1, then the stated COS is 75%, however, Heron 1 has also been deemed as an appraisal well. Thought it might be worth re-posting the below for those that may have missed it...
In summary, with regards to dates...
https://tinyurl.com/y3nl4d4l
Heron 1 - "The Rig is on the move now, the rig is only 20km away at the moment and hoping to spud before mid July" - Drilling and logging results expected before the end of August. If warranted, they will then bring in work over rig which is currently in the block next door and contracted to run
Red Deer - Spud expected before the end of July, hoping for results in early September from the drilling and logging of Red Deer
Gazelle 1 - Expected to spud in early September and completed around the end of September (including drilling and logging results)
A lot more around plans moving forward as well, definitely worth a listen. Great publicity starting to come through on the company with a significant news flow in the coming months. Exciting times ahead... GLA
Ojay - At this stage all I am basing my opinion on is last years news release, ultimately, your guess is as good as mine... In other news, looks like the buy has just ticked up to 7.7999p now, moving up nicely and its only Monday! Hoping we continue with a steady rise towards the end of the week.
Ojay/blissful - Personally I do not see them releasing an RNS until the rig has been mobilised and they have spudded (basing this on last years drill program as they only released an RNS once they had initiated spud). That being said, based on recent activities, I expect updates on twitter regarding rig assembly and and RNS shortly to follow stating that spud has been initiated.
Based on previous experience, rig assembly takes 3-5 working days on average. Either way, by the end of this month, we are expecting confirmation of spud for both sites! I am personally happy to wait (but would not say no to an update before then!).
Cant speak for what happened in the past, what I can say with confidence is that the company are doing a great job of keeping investors updated via multiple streams including social media. Furthermore, media coverage has been consistent and positive throughout and they haven't given much reason to doubt them this time around.
Just in case you missed it...
"Rig mobilisation and campsite installation at Heron-1 in progress ahead of planned spud #MATD"
https://twitter.com/Petro_Matad/status/1146708372273750016
Its also worth noting that Mongolia is 7 hours ahead of us (almost a full working day). This means that by the time the market opens, its 3pm over there. A lot of the tweets have been coming in in the early hours of the morning UK time (last one being at approx 2am).
Based on the most recent update through Malcys blog, MB is still referencing mid July as targeted spud date, which is now next week Monday. This week will be interesting as I believe we will start to see a gradual steady rise as investors take their positions IMO.
The interesting aspect of this rise is that the majority of trades on L2 are actually sells as I have been getting live quotes all morning. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some seriously large buys pop up late throughout the day/after hours. This indicates that Institutional Investors are loading up following the news on Friday IMO. Either way, farm in news in the coming days/weeks will take this to a whole new level. Exciting times ahead!
"Rig mobilisation and campsite installation at Heron-1 in progress ahead of planned spud #MATD"
https://twitter.com/Petro_Matad/status/1146708372273750016
Riskisprofit - They might be be obliged from a legal standpoint but they certainly should be from a moral perspective. The least they can do is face their share holders and elaborate further on the failings of Brockham with lessons learnt for the next drill. Any other news would require an RNS as soon as possible
In summary, with regards to dates...
https://tinyurl.com/y3nl4d4l
Heron 1 - "The Rig is on the move now, the rig is only 20km away at the moment and hoping to spud before mid July" - Drilling and logging results expected before the end of August. If warranted, they will then bring in work over rig which is currently in the block next door and contracted to run
Red Deer - Spud expected before the end of July, hoping for results in early September from the drilling and logging of Red Deer
Gazelle 1 - Expected to spud in early September and completed around the end of September (including drilling and logging results)
A lot more around plans moving forward as well, definitely worth a listen. Also keep an eye out on Malcy's blog as I know he had an interview with MB yesterday as well... Great publicity starting to come through on the company with a significant news flow in the coming months. Exciting times ahead... GLA
Actually I have found it, thank you for sharing Donkee...
"Petro Matad, Riverfort Global Opportunities and Alan Green on 4 small caps"
https://tinyurl.com/y3nl4d4l
Donkee - Would you mind converting the link and reposting please? You can do it here: https://tinyurl.com/
Ojay - I do not disagree, in this case I believe the primary trigger is sentiment and anticipation for the upcoming news. This is what took us to 8p the last rise we had and is what is taking us over that now IMO. That being said, I would not dismiss the thought of a news leak, as this is AIM after all...
Do not think a news leak is required personally... It was only a matter of time before investors started taking their positions in preparation for spud. At this price it would be hard for most to resist given the fundamentals IMO.
Looking at last years turn around time, it took approx. 6 weeks from notification that the rig was being mobilised to news that spud had been initiated. If the time frames are similar, that would put us at spud for both Heron and Red Deer during the last week of July. Furthermore, there was no news of rig being mobilised during this time frame, however, based on the recent social media posts I believe we should see some pics pop up on twitter this time around.
So far, I am personally satisfied with the flow of news and update streams that the company have used for this program. I also believe, that should there be any delays, they will be minimal. This has got to be the most exciting share I have been in for a while now... Looking forward to news in the coming days/weeks! All IMO of course. GLA!