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88e SP is not going to be set by the herd, if any. It will be set by the value of confirmed assets and what a producer will offer for those. Because of the conservative moves from Biden on oil exploration, 88e's acreage is appealing as is, and will be a lot more with confirm production oil in it. No doubt an important discovery will attract a lot of interest. But I don't think anyone on this board can remotely guess what the assets value will be (and the SP as a consequence) at that point. Need some oil first!
They'll be forced to release important news promptly, since a leakage, which will put them in serious troubles, is always possible when holding news for too long.
I've mixed feelings about the RNS. With important data due soon for Talitha A, surely earlier than Apr 20th, why pushing the presentation so much out? Also, when they say: "testing and analysis of the Talitha #A well has been fully completed prior to the webinar to enable a more informative presentation. Weather conditions on the Alaska North Slope remain cold and the Company intends to make full use of the remaining drilling season."
may imply they're confidence on Talitha has kind of decreased and they want to have option to recover with testing different area ahead of presentation to us shareholders?
Views?
I think there're too many words flowing with exploration companies ahead of drills and tests.
The fact is, for as promising as preliminary data may be, there is always a risk until all testing concluded. People here (like other cases, see 88e right now) keep looking for arcane reasons or manipulation to explain an SP level. In fact it's just about risk the buyers are ready to take. The SP as is looks well balanced to me, we're all aware on bad news this will halve, and we know bad news is a possibility (unfortunately). Of course looking forward to good news - GLA!
I think no one on this board and off this board, anywhere in the universe, can claim even remotely knowing what will happen here. No ramper, no deramper, no one.
The underlying existing information is that the area is oil rich and it's worth drilling and logging as there're chances of hitting oil that is production worth. But, there're chances of failing too. It all depends on your own risk appetite in investments. Take or not this risk. But I'd be thankful if this board was free of all the pointless ramping or deramping premonitions. I'd rather just see discussion around facts.
The fact that ELKO decided to invest is an important indication that ELKO sees a potential reward well outweighing the risk they've decided to take. That's what I see too, based on the oil history of the area. It's a bet, not an insane one, still a bet as many things will need to line up to win it.
I'm going to add more incrementally, not all today.
There's no guarantee this will not keep going lower in the weeks and months ahead, depending on overall news flow.
It needs a good RNS setting the strategy for the next 4 quarters to help investors, like me, assess the PROS/CONS of staying invested/adding more.
Does anyone know if the dispute is filed with the ICC? If so, potential waiting of 26 months - that's annoying.
On the ICC website they have published "full dispute resolution statistical report for 2019" - here the most relevant summary:
"At the end of 2019, 146 cases had been or were being conducted under Expedited Procedure Provisions (EPP), which were first introduced by ICC in March 2017. Of the 50 final awards rendered in expedited proceedings, 37 were within the six-month time limit, with very limited delays encountered in the balance of cases. Among those cases, the delay for submitting the final award exceeded one month in only 10 cases due to justified circumstances and the parties agreeing to a new procedural timetable. In three of those cases, the delay resulted in a fee reduction for the arbitrator(s). Scrutiny of all 50 awards was made within 11 days on average.
The average duration of non EPP proceedings was 26 months for cases that reached a final award, two months down from 2018. Further, of the 162 draft final awards submitted to the ICC Court for scrutiny beyond the approved timeframe (two or three months from the last substantive submission, depending on whether the tribunal is composed of 1 or 3 arbitrators), 68 cases resulted in a fee reductions."
The SP will now likely collapse - As long as there's enough cash to avoid placings and dilutions I'm fine waiting for a huge reward; in fact, I'll be loading up.
Does anyone know if the dispute is filed with the ICC? If so, potential waiting of 26 months - that's annoying.
On the ICC website they have published "full dispute resolution statistical report for 2019" - here the most relevant summary:
"At the end of 2019, 146 cases had been or were being conducted under Expedited Procedure Provisions (EPP), which were first introduced by ICC in March 2017. Of the 50 final awards rendered in expedited proceedings, 37 were within the six-month time limit, with very limited delays encountered in the balance of cases. Among those cases, the delay for submitting the final award exceeded one month in only 10 cases due to justified circumstances and the parties agreeing to a new procedural timetable. In three of those cases, the delay resulted in a fee reduction for the arbitrator(s). Scrutiny of all 50 awards was made within 11 days on average.
The average duration of non EPP proceedings was 26 months for cases that reached a final award, two months down from 2018. Further, of the 162 draft final awards submitted to the ICC Court for scrutiny beyond the approved timeframe (two or three months from the last substantive submission, depending on whether the tribunal is composed of 1 or 3 arbitrators), 68 cases resulted in a fee reductions."
The SP will now likely collapse - As long as there's enough cash to avoid placings and dilutions I'm fine waiting for a huge reward; in fact, I'll be loading up.