Member Info for Nash2020

https://www.***************************/lloyds-banking-group-ord-10---consensus-indicates-potential-56.8-upside/412990361

https://www.***************************/lloyds-banking-group-ord-10---consensus-indicates-potential-56.8-upside/412990361

Any news on Embark acquisition or have Lloyds pulled the plug on this deal due to pensions mis selling?

Are we heading towards 43.50 to close the gap?

Dart

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-jargon-idUSKBN23Q1NC?taid=5eec9bb72939cf00014a69fb&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Nice article and good to know the new terminologies.

FOMO - Fear of Missing Out
FOMU - Fear of Massive Under performance
TINA - There is no alternative
HOPIUM - Assumption of it won't be as bad
FOGO - Fear of going out
BEACH - booking agencies, energy, airlines and autos, cruise lines and hospitality (Bearish outlook)
RORO - Risk on Risk Off

Is the amount of QE done by central banks too little and too late to avoid deflation?

Should we not be fearful of deflation rather than inflation?

The QE post 2008 crisis hardly created any inflation in real terms to make a dent into growth.

Yesterday Powell was asked by a senator as to what is the FED or the treasury doing to ensure the regional banks are not short of circulating currency in the system.

The below link is an article on how a small town in Washington is printing its own currency during the pandemic:

https://thehustle.co/covid19-local-currency-tenino-washington/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

DPLE

'Perhaps my strategy will be to do the opposite of what the "experts" say, or just delete this forum from my bookmarks.'

In normal times the markets do adhere to technical and fundamental analysis for 95% of the times. The 5% diversion usually comes in due to surprise news affecting an individual sector or market. However, we are currently in abnormal times where nobody is aware of the actual impact on the society as a whole. We might come to some sense of normality only once we have a vaccine and it's effectiveness is quantified.

In my opinion one should never make any decisions based on someone else's judgement of a situation. Similar to life the markets are also cyclical and the valuations will always be subjective.

Just to illustrate we have members on this forum who feel the current LLoyds price is expensive as they feel the correct price is lower 20's. Contrarily there are other members who seem to think that we will never see this share price in 20's. According to me neither is wrong nor correct in their beliefs as the share price is dictated by the markets which is primarily based on demand and supply.

This reminds me of a quote from Mark Twain 'It Ain’t What You Don’t Know That Gets You Into Trouble. It’s What You Know for Sure That Just Ain’t So'

Falkland

'extra stamp duty on *Additional property*.'

Do u have something similar in Falklands?

Russia finds medicine for covid.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rReOtmupF3g

Any thoughts as to why past few days both VIX and the S&P500 have been up which is very abnormal.

Dart

https://www.unseenopp.com/the-vix-is-flashing-a-major-warning-signal/

Past few days both VIX and the S&P500 have been up which is very abnormal.

It might be prudent to wait until the current month contract expires on 17th June which is next Wednesday.

John

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/japan-1990s-credit-crunch-liquidity-trap.asp

I slightly disagree that what transpired with Japan might replicate with the western economies although the circumstances might be similar.

The cultural factors can also play a significant role in the economic behavior combined with our understanding of the economic behavior.

We have a very mature market combined with an efficient system of handing out credit to end consumers. Additionally due to Govt ability to raise funds through mature money markets enables a decent level of liquidity in the system.

The downside of the above factor is we have built our lives on credit. We don't have a habit of saving for the rainy day and always live beyond our means.
Irrespective of our affordability every year we are used to:
- going for at least one holiday
- having Season ticket for Football/Rugby under the pretext of being a supporter of some XYZ club
- having multiple cars

The major difference between our culture and far east people is that they mostly do not have the above luxuries because they tend to first earn before spending. However, we earn to obtain credit to splash out on luxuries items.

Therefore, a huge liquidity stimulus in western economies will increase money circulation unlike the far east where people hoard cash due to inability to obtain credit.

So more QE needed and interest rates will stay low for a prolonged period.

ERV1

'we know what happened in 1990 (or thereabouts).'

What are you trying to state whether buying house in 80's was good/bad or ugly?

'Every company that furloughed staff and took from the government coffers, should pay it back out of any current or subsequent profits - and that's just for starters.'

The companies will/can never pay it off as they have maintained a high debt ratio instead of planning for a rainy day.

The only exit route out of all this is to create inflation thereby the real value of the debt is reduced.

A classic example is people who bought UK houses in 1980's crash in spite of paying high interest rates on their mortgage have been winners due to asset price inflation.

Britain and the rest of the world are hoping to pay it off by:
- Keeping interest rates ultra low or even negative rates ( Govt the biggest borrower will not pay any interest)
- QE /liquidity bringing in Cost pull inflation
- AI/automation will increase productivity/manufacturing efficiency by at least 25% in next 5 years

The problem the world has is they cannot devalue their currencies anymore by lowering interest rates as majority of the Central banks are close to zero.

Japan/Swiss/ECB have tried negative interest rates with limited success.

Therefore, now every Govt is adding in a new tool of dishing out cash to actual consumer or business asking them to spend.

In reality inflation is never a concern as it can be controlled by monetary and fiscal tools. However, deflation has no floor unless demand and business confidence picks up.

"Break The Glass" - Guggenheim's Minerd Warns Fed May Start Buying Gold To Support Dollar Hegemony

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/break-glass-guggenheims-minerd-warns-fed-may-start-buying-gold-support-dollar-hegemony?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffee.d+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Wish me good luck bought some Lloyds @37.09 in anticipation of 40p

Looks good buy 'Xpediator' ticker XPD

Ex-dividend date is 11th June

- S&P500 seems Up as it needs to close above 3225 before any pull back.
- FTSE 100 seems up as the laggards (Banking, Real estate,etc) of this rally have some steam still left

'Central Bank meddling and the continual counterfeiting of money will only distort fragile Global financial markets further.'

I don't disagree that there is an element of influence on the markets. However, we would have riots on our streets if some drastic steps were not taken.

FED Chair Powell has shown pro activeness by flooding the market. On the contrary the ECB and BOE have been reactive due to a different set of problems such as BREXIT at our end.

In one of the press conference Powell did mention that the majority of currency created was digital. Naturally this digital money got easily parked into the Financial Markets.

However, for this money to get into wider economy takes at least another 3 to 6 months.

The global coordination of liquidity was done to ensure not to repeat the mistakes of 2008 when the flow of credit got cut off.

However, like in 2008 this is not going to stop from businesses going under and debt defaults increasing. On top of this toxic combination we have:

- loss of productivity due to lock down and supply chain disruption
- loss of business confidence

In my opinion we will still see a credit crunch sometime in Q4 or Q1 of next year once the impact of the Pandemic are widely known.

We might have a vaccine for COVID19 to ensure normality but there is no vaccine to bring normality back instantaneously into Credit disruptions, insolvency and lack of business confidence.