Member Info for Nash2020

Agreed 100% on your opinion.

It was oscillating between 30 and 40 but today it is at $29.53.

How low will it go and when do you anticipate it to rebound?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/itll-be-happy-mama-day-when-we-make-america-manufacture-again-2020-05-08?mod=newsviewer_click

We need to be self reliant by bringing back all overseas supply chains and associated manufacturing. It can be done 'Buy British produce, manufacture British goods and support British companies.

UN & WHO sort of organizations have passed their expiry date.

UN has not been able to solve /sort out to name a few the Isreal or Syria or Iran issue since it was formed.

The world has changed a lot since 1940's and the global power axis has also massively shifted. The members of the security council do not completely represent the changing dynamics.

When was the last time a decent resolution was passed by the UN without any of the security council members Vetoing or opposing the drafts?

Otto123

You were spot on the Lloyds price.

S&P @ 2900 approaching resistance at 2930. It seems it will test that tomorrow. If we convert that resistance into support we are on our way up to 3085.

We are closed tomorrow for bank holiday.

EU has massive structural problems as it was born out of two world wars. The US proliferated the concept of EU to avoid getting sucked into fights /arguments between the EU member states. The US knows it that the EU is like a ladies Kitty party where 27 ladies come together and than gossip / chat regarding each other without any constructive outcome.

Until last week the EU had a monetary union without a fiscal union. Now there is no judicial union either after the German courts questioning the legitimacy of QE promoted by ECB. This has also led to the Swedish court querying the Swedish central bank. Why would the German courts give 3 months to get a response on QE when at present the ECB is going full throttle on QE.

The central banks were supposed to be independent decision making body but the German court ruling is going to start off all member countries judiciary questioning the ECB.

We should all accept a no deal BREXIT from the EU as they suck in any form of negotiations.

Apologies in advance but I disagree with your rationale of not taking preventive steps.

Even today our borders are not closed and the tracking /tracing is still in shambles.

- Spain had asked British tourist to vacate resorts and go back to Britain. (EU state doing this to EU citizens)
- US,UAE and many other countries have closed all borders
- India has cancelled all visas including Overseas Indian citizens Visas

Please tell me when will we be looking after our own interests first?

If we were really serious about controlling this pandemic and looking after our own interests we would have:
1. Cancelled/suspended all non resident visas for a period of time (This would have made a massive difference in fatalities in London at least)
2. The above point would have never made us look as non invest-able or anti globalization because all the other countries in the world have followed the same path.
3. There was also a report that came out which suggested that the difference in cases between NI and EIRE is 25%. The reason behind this is EIRE closed down schools a week earlier than UK(NI). This led to the number of cases dropping by 25%.
4. As per above point even a lunatic can understand that logic of herd mentality has no legs to stand on. This is again affirmed by the fact that Germany's cases are again going up once lock down was lifted. This is inspite of Germany doing extremely well on tracking, tracing and treatment.
5. Referring to point 1: This would have resulted in at least 40% reduction in london population. This would have vastly reduced the pressure on NHS, Schooling and also food shortages. Don't we import 80% of our food requirements?
6. Referring to point 1: Govt furlong bill would have reduced and businesses could have planned these in much more effective way.
7. Another report suggested that ethnic minority children are carriers therefore a phased school reopening would be done. This is anybody's guess whether this is due to genetic reasons or lack of adherence to social distancing rules.

There is a lot we can do ourselves without external assistance by not relying on overseas supply chains or skilled labour. By investing
- in robotics and automation we can be self reliant on manufacturing, assembling ( no need of overseas supply chains)
- We can develop skilled labour by investing in apprenticeship and existing skills transfer modules.

The above is similar to the flawed logic of staying in EU. The remainers always argued that our 70% trade is with EU so it would be catstrophic. However, the reality is quiet different.

Our own Commonwealth countries such as Australia, Canada, NewZealand, India & South Africa are the economic leaders of this century. Does anyone over here think that by adapting and harnessing these economies potential would lead us to a catastrophic outcome for Brexit?
EU has massive structural problems asit was born out of two world wars. The US proliferated the concept of EU

Any thoughts which way is this share going?

Please get out of Euro as soon as possible. The EU is run by bureaucrats who have made a career out of just talking. It is similar with the Central Banks and FM being run by bankers who are basically academicians. Academicians are always behind the curve in tracing, tracking and treating economic mayhem.
Education teaches one to read books but doesn't enable a person to read inbetween the lines in the book.
God save all of us as we are in a world where lunatics who are self-centered are incharge of our well being.

It's like

If this is real that Trump went against the Senate than I am afraid the next downward leg of the market shall commence.

Please see below artcle

https://nypost.com/2020/04/18/how-the-obamas-could-easily-win-8-more-years-in-the-white-house/

Since we always follow the US markets in terms of volatility, is it more worthwhile to trade US stocks rather than UK ones. This ensures monitoring only one market.

Any thoughts?

Short term is month of May & June.

With US elections round the corner I think a sell off is coming before mid of August.

By than hopefully all economies would be open and a loss estimation might be guesstimated.

Now the results are out where are we heading in the short term (24P or 35P)?

Very well explained fleccy.

Thank God we are getting out of Euro.

The problem with the Euro is you cannot have a monetary union without a fiscal union. Historically none of the member states have had amicable relations therefore souring of relationships is out of question. A relationship can only sour when there is a relationship.

Thanks for sharing the below John46.

I suggest everybody with exposure to stock markets should watch this.

If anyone is bored and has 1.5 hrs to spare , below is the best interview on US FED I've ever seen . Towards the end of interview it explains why China held off for 6 weeks telling the world they had a problem in Wohan with the virus . It also explains why not to trust Huawey 5G . Very informative !

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jsV_YXq-1x4

John46

Thanks for sharing this.

I suggest everybody with exposure to Stock markets should watch this.

When it comes to the markets there are only two types of people, those who don't know and those who don't know that they don't know, end of!

This market has become like a Casino no fundamental, technical or even economic figures or charts matter.
We have had
- oil at -40
- indices off 18% from new all time highs
- 80% of Global productivity is self isolating
- QE to infinity
- Monetary and fiscal policies completely ditched (For eg ECB buying Junk bonds)

We will come out of all this but nobody knows the true cost. However, on the contrary the Stock markets seem to know everything and have discounted all the above. How can you put a value to airlines, cruise or travel stocks when you don't know when is the economy opening and more importantly what about the consumer behavior impact.

What's going on with LLoyds SP?

- asking price close of 26.47
- Bid price close of 33.68

What makes you think it will go this low when Fed and all the other Central Banks are printing money out of thin air to support the valuations? All our pensions, banking and financial institutions are dependent on positive valuations of the stock market.
I am sure people in the 1980's remember the housing collapse due to high interest rates accompanied by closing down of MIRAS scheme in UK.

Today it is the other way round people are not buying anything because they think it will get much more cheaper tomorrow.

I agree the current market levels are completely disjointed with the valuations. However, we need to factor in the massive stimulus being pumped in which will lead to currency devaluations.

This is effective because those within a household where no one is infected will have no means of contracting the virus without outside contact. For an individual who may have the virus, they will only be able to pass it to those quarantined with them, with 4–6 weeks as enough time for the virus to pass through the whole household. Those who end up at the hospital would only return to their homes once they are cleared of the virus.
We have two choices:
Everyone in the world gets the virus, so that it can no longer spread. The body count would be horrific.
The whole world synchronously goes into a complete lockdown for 4–6 weeks. The effects on the global economy would be horrific.

Every nation is eagerly awaiting to lift its lockdown as soon as there are fewer cases. But when 15 cases become 460,000 in 6 weeks, how is it ok to lift a lockdown when we are down to, say, “only 100 new cases” in a given day? Once again, our human mind is incapable of thinking in exponentials. We will not have learned from history — a history that occurred just two months ago.

The real pandemic will start the day we start lifting the lockdown.

Every country or state has announced a date at which lockdown will be lifted. They should instead declare that they will lift the lockdown the day the number of new cases has been zero for the past two weeks period.

We are setting ourselves up for a cycle of partial lockdown for weeks, followed by a lift, then a lock down again when the spread picks up — over and over again, for the better part of the year, at best. In the process, we will lose millions of lives, as well as our economies.

If we take a hit of some percentage loss in the world GDP by locking down the entire world synchronously, we could save millions of lives. Or we do nothing and millions get killed with a loss in GDP anyway.

The reality is that we will lose lives as well as the economy — just because we didn’t bother to understand the math.
We have a choice to make: do we want to throw money at the problem, or throw bodies at the problem?
———————