The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
A tedious day for HGR8. Order book seems well balanced so in principle not expecting anything exciting this week. Hope I'm wrong though...
Looking at the order book today feels like the sp could hover around the 102 - 110 mark for the next few days. Don't think we are out of the woods yet, but the panic that took over oil/oil services in the last few sessions is no longer here.
So...looks like the 149p support was not strong enough. We could be testing 134p soon then. From that point I reckon there is a 30% upside which could be achieved if there is indeed a xmas rally this year.
Market pricing is supposedly efficient. But (investors) react to short-term greed and fear, and right now fear is dominating the equation. In the medium term, oil price not going to stay down there, but it’s not going back to $100 either. There has been no cut in production, GMS is operating at capacity and they have a healthy order book. Just need to let the wider market panic go away to see this one rise again.
wolfhound - sentiment has turned negative on the sp following the event of two weeks ago. CEO could have had the best of intentions, but to many investors it was just a creative way of selling shares without drawing much attention to it. Sp may struggle for some time.
GMS got a brief mention in this week's IC, citing it as an example of oil services business that can do well in a downturn (in Cannacord's view). I'm still a belieber (I mean, believer).
I'm out for now as sp does not look completely settled. Will wait in the sidelines for an opportunity to jump back in. Good business though.
Bad news is that it dropped 6% in today's session. Good news (potentially) is that the sp found solid support at 990p a few times this year. So, if negative sentiment moderates tomorrow, it could provide a good 'buy' opportunity.
Naked Trader: 'Simply a nice sleep at night tuckaway that should continue to provide good income and capital growth.'. Reading this statement makes it feel like sp has been growing steadily. Reality is that it dropped more than 35% since the start of 2014. Hoping for a come back though once it hits 1180 (maybe next week?).
My faith remains intact.
watching on the sidelines too. Can fall further. Great business, attractive valuation.
Well done jolly. I only managed to pick up some @201, but think there could still be a 10 - 15% upside here. Am sceptical about sp getting to 250p any time soon as it was suggested here...unless a new/positive fact arises.
Any thoughts on what may be able to move the sp beyond the 350p level between now and year-end? I was hopping yesterday's strong announcement would do it, but the rise proved short-lived (day traders driving the sp up?). I'm mostly in cash now waiting for the next wider market correction.
... up until today.
Not a single piece of negative news here: Outlook The outlook for the year is updated based on trading in the Period: · Revenues for 2014 are now expected to be between $2.6bn and $2.65bn (2013: $2.47bn), reflecting a short-term shift in phasing from this year into next year; · Operating margin for 2014 is now expected to be greater than 9.0% (2013: 7.8%), equivalent to greater than $235m adjusted EBITA (2013: $194m); and · Strong cash flow to continue, and Pace expects to generate in excess of $200m of free cash flow in 2014 (2013: $209m).
paulsf, ....at which point I'll be looking to jump back in. Question is how long will it take to get there? 3 days? 3 weeks? 3 months? 3 years? At the current price I don't think OPAY can be called a bargain by any stretch of imagination.
ecovest, not trying to compare OPAY to BLINKX from a fundamentals view point. What I'm saying is that people fail to appreciate that what ultimately supports a share price is demand. If there is not sufficient people interested in buying/holding, the sp will struggle, no matter how good the fundamentals are. Some well-informed and sensible people like yourself and others in this board will approach the events of yesterday from an objective and rational angle. However, a lot of other people won't, either because shareprophets' claims will scare them, or because they realise the sentiment has now turned negative, and they prefer to put their money elsewhere they think the mood is a bit more positive. Emotions play a part in share price behaviour as much as fundamentals / TA.
Had a look at the July update and the tone was very bullish. In particular 'Strong H2 anticipated...'. "Momentum building through the year: gross margin up 3.9ppt to 21.6%, adjusted EBITA up 9.9% to $106.3m, free cash flow of $108.9m up 18.4% and interim dividend increased 23.0%. Strong H2 anticipated, full year profits and cash flow guidance increased."
Today's 22% sp drop reminds me of what happened to BLINKX at the beginning of this year. A nutty U.S. professor publishes a research criticising some of BLINKX's practices. Share price comes crashing down (-49% at lunch time). Lots of posts in discussion boards vilifying the professor and questioning his motives. Posters stating all kinds of logic reasons why the company's model was solid and the market behaviour irrational. And that as soon as directors put out a RNS, sp would bounce back like a rocket (btw, BLNX sp has never recovered, and lost 270% since Jan/2014). That is a good reminder to us that in the short/medium term, sp reacts more to emotions than logic. Happy to have closed what was left of my holdings at 386p early this afternoon. Good luck to all those who are betting on a strong bounce on Monday morning. I lost some money with BLINKX and have learned my lesson...
I had big hopes here, but at the moment RSI indicates PIC is overbought. Tempted to sell ahead of Tuesday's update. Let's see what happens tomorrow...