5 out comes8 Apr 2020 20:47
• 1) NO OPEC+ DEAL (5%): Russia and Saudi talks will break down – Brent could be pushed lower to ~USD 20/bbl
• 2) NO US DEAL (20%): If the US refuses to partake, Russia and Saudi will also ditch talks – Brent could be pushed lower to ~USD 20/bbl
• 3) A “LARGE” DEAL (20%): around 15mln BPD cut from current levels supported by OPEC+, US and other producers for at least three months with possible extension – Brent could rise to around USD 35-40/bbl.
• 4) A “SMALL” DEAL (35%): Immediate OPEC+ cuts of 12-13mln BPD; US offers mild reductions in Gulf of Mexico and Shale output and the purchase of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) – Brent could see USD 30-35/bbl.
• 5) AN “EVEN SMALLER” DEAL (20%): US relies on natural output reductions and offers to purchase around 0.8-1.0mln BPD for the SPR. Brent could meander below USD 30/bbl with scope for a rise to ~USD 35/bbl should US production markedly decline naturally.
TARIFFS:
US President Trump on the weekend said he was considering slapping tariffs on oil imports, or even take other such measures, to protect the US energy sector from falling oil prices. For reference, the US imports of petroleum were around 9.1mln BPD in 2019, of which Saudi and Russian imports were just over 500k each.