Member Info for myfirstmillion

Interesting idea Bricks thanks for the links.

Sentiment is a funny old thing. I once put around 80K in a company. Great management, fantastic resource and appeared to be heading to the stars. It initially went up but then a series of delays and just plain bad luck started to weigh on sentiment and over time in got worse and worse until at its lowest point my 80K was worth 20K. The management hadn't changed, the asset was better than ever and had been proved up further much like EUZ. I held firm coz I knew my research was correct and it was purely the fickle nature of market sentiment that weighed on the share price, nothing was intrinsically wrong with the company. Less than a year later those same shares were worth 420K. I didn't sell at the peak but I did make a good return. The lesson there should be obvious. Valuations and sentiment fluctuate wildly on AIM. Neither make any reasonable sense when viewed logically. It is simply the madness of crowds...

If anyone buys or sells because another poster buys or sells they deserve whatever outcome they get. You're on your own in the stock market. If someone makes money it means someone else lost money. It's as simple as that. So you do your research and make a decision based on it and it's YOUR decision. See too many people blaming others or the company or market makers or some other excuse. Yet quick to take the credit when they make money. If you ain't man or woman enough to own your own decisions you shouldn't be investing and equally if you make investment decisions based upon what another investor does then you shouldn't be investing either. That's my tuppence worth.

BB You're assertions are not all correct. I'm a LTH of around 3 years (last purchases were only 2 years ago). If EUZ is sold this year for what I would consider the absolute minimum ie. the only official NPV figure we have of $110M that would be an increase of 350% on my entire holding. 120% per annum beats any fund manager out there by a country mile (they're more than happy to beat the indexes with historically around a 7% return) and that's as I say, based on the lowest NPV figure we have. I'd realistically expect more. That's how you win on AIM, play the long game, stay patient while others lose their heads.

You say "the fact is..." and then go on another anti TLOU rant but nothing you say can be proven as actual 'fact' it's all assumptions and negative bias. You don't know for a fact that we will have to have a placing, no punter does. It's possible but there is also another possibility, that being that we get funding from the BDA. You say "we have a larger seller" again that isn't a fact it's your opinion. An different opinion is that we have lots of smaller bored or ****ed off smaller retail punters that for whatever reason need or want to sell. You say it's a fact that TLOU are in a bad position and will be for a long time. That's another opinion. If we suddenly get commercial flow rates, an interim PPA or funding then almost at once everything changes and sentiment will pick up as will the price.

As has been shown you've continually 'threatened' to sell up time after time and even purported to have sold half the other day, which incidentally straight after when you were called out, you said that you would sell the rest if you weren't satisfied with TLOU's next press release. Well we've had it now and you clearly don't like the message as evidenced by your 'facts' so maybe now you will finally sell up? I think not.

The way this always gets marked down on news (trying to scare people into selling and the way the price has been manipulated and held down (in many folks opinion) for many months, only really leads to one conclusion as far as I'm concerned. Someone must be buying up huge quantities of shares at an agreed price. Buy out or JV is my verdict. As far as I know, this doesn't have to be notified until the deal is complete. PADYOR.

It sounds like panic selling to me Brad. I try to avoid emotional investment decisions. They're still targeting Q1 for PPA and project financing. I don't think they would have left those targets unchanged if they weren't confident of achieving them especially given the challenges they've had with the flow rates and with missing all three targets last year. If those current forecasts change I'll reassess.

Not much new today tbh. We didn't expect much change or it would have been rns'ed previously. The wording worried a few but when you dissect it they are really just factual statements. It's always been a bit of a gamble but we know that! We're here because if they do pull it off the rewards will be enormous. Highlighting that the flow rates are up and down and somewhat erratic is (imho) the companies way of saying that's why we can't really update on the flow rates because they're all over the shop but it is encouraging that they say much higher rates have been achieved. The key is consistency and that can only be achieved with time. The worry now is are two wells enough? I would suggest yes or they surely wouldn't have committed to drilling Mamba, so water levels must be coming down but it's obviously not something that can be rushed. The interim PPA is a pleasant positive surprise and one that definitely adds to my confidence levels. Biggest surprise of the day (other than the share price reaction) was Brad selling his AIM holding. Quite frankly Brad you've lost nearly all remaining credibility with that move in my eyes. After espousing your respect and seemingly untold admiration for TG over many many months, to sell up on one RNS that basically just told us what we already knew, seemed an over-reaction to me and one I think you may go on to regret, we shall see... I remain fully invested.

ps. I rode ARS from below 1p up to over 14p and eventually sold at 9p. Their price today is very cheap for the size of assets they have IF, as with so many companies, they can get a JV or funding of some sort to get it out of the ground.

I think a deep hole is on the cards. LR has several times sounded intrigued at the thought / prospect so that's my bet.

Thanks Swizz and Dcat for those numbers today. Absolutely stunning and compelling long term opportunity here when you look at our 25% of VO and our own Vanadium project. I already have a sizeable holding but may look to invest further if another of my investments comes in.

With the revenue coming in I don't believe there will be any placing requirements. The management have said as much, barring an exceptional acquisition and that won't happen in H1. By the time they get round to looking for another acquisition and do due diligence we'll be well into H2 and likely have Selva online and 3/4 wells drilled in Abu Senan with likely further production increases throughout the year. I see the prospect of another placing this year as very unlikely. PADYOR.

Steady as she goes ;)

I think that's it prop, no analyst wants to stick his neck out with a valuation way above previous guidance when test results are still due and although we don't anticipate large amounts of deleterious elements, why take that risk when you don't need to, as has been pointed out the current guidance is 3 x the current share price! I'm just surprised they released this now. I thought like bricks that it would be released after this current work phase hence my guess at a much higher price.

I make between 500 and 1000 pips per month on the foreign currency markets purely from reading and interpreting charts. I know absolutely nothing, nor care about the fundamentals of each country's interest rates or fiscal or monetary policy. I read charts. I interpret charts. I make pips.That's it. You CAN use the exact same techniques for stocks if you want to. With stocks I tend to take large positions and hold for larger gains rather than trade technically.

applegarth everything about your last post screams disingenuous to me

"Brad I reckon I am on a 20x multi bagger in a company that now has much better prospects.(is this in about 10-20 years)"

You're assuming full value is derived via bringing hundreds of megawatts online BTS, however once we have our initial project up and running and plugged into the grid, many companies will be looking at us as a takeover target. We could see massive upside in a bid scenario in a much shorter timeframe.

"Alternatively it's a straight buy. And why on earth would you invest such a large sum? Unless you knew something was coming."I've never gone along with this sort of thinking. What's a large sum to one person is not necessarily a large sum to the next person. Assuming they know something is presumptuous. It was probably, almost certainly a buy which is good but I would assume no more than that.

0.135

The only possibly interesting thing I picked up on was from a couple of news reports a few days ago where they stated "7000 average boepd" I'm pretty sure I read this in 2 separate articles. When the first news dropped it was 7,000 barrels of oil peak. So I don't know if this was just lazy/bad reporting or not but if it turns out that the 7,000 figure is an average rather than peak flow, then that really will be interesting.

Whizzer I don't get what knowing the flow rates right now will achieve for you. They're obviously not commercial YET. So knowing the number is somewhere between the last announced flow rates and say 100 (which from memory they said would be cemmercial) is going to achieve exactly what? It certainly won't make the share price go up. Will it make you sell at a loss? Very doubtful given your last few posts. I just don't see it achieving anything for you or anyone. People have this need to be constantly updated, which is a symptom of society and smartphones, information overload and Twitter et al. They came out just recently and explained roughly where we are and where we need to get to. It's taken a bit longer but that's actually a big positive if you read all the literature around CBM extraction. That's not this BOD's, saying that, that's scientific literature from loads of examples worldwide. More water almost invariably equals more gas!