Member Info for Mumbo_Jumbo

Howells - copd is very misleading avenue. Its not a near term or even medium term share price driver.

xviolet - and Fauci is now making noises about the worst of the pandemic is coming to an end. One thing I learned with novavax is that having something works very well is only the first step but actually passing all the regulatory hurdles for manufacturing processes etc... can take a while. A lag, at the fag end of the pandemic they can ill afford. In reality, you are looking at autumn 2022 for it to be widely available in hospitals, if it is proven to be a successful treatment.

How quickly can this be delivered at scale and pass through all the regulatory processes. In a few months time when omicron has run through the population…. Will the need be so great?

Covid stocks are getting hammered as everyone thinks the pandemic is coming to an end.

Then you don’t need to worry do you?

Time for gold- there are two shares I have been really negative about. I was proven right on both in the end.

4D pharma when it was 120+, now 40 p and Avacta when it shot upto 200+, now 70-80p.

I am just asking simple questions here in a quest to find risks reward as a potential shareholder buying in at these levels.

Any rumours for a buyout?

So what will it take to reverse this down trend?

- Resignation of CEO
- Independent Chair
- SoftBank taking up the option

Any more?

Have the results been released and are they any good?

notrader - I DONT KNOW!!! Its the very reason I got this discussion going in the first place. I have no industry experience or otherwise. I am just asking straight forward and very simple questions.

The 5% will set the value for the remaining 25%, a point in time in Feb. If the value is low, the SP has to go down. If the value is high and current mcap is lower than similarly, the SP has to rerate higher.

I have given my figures in the other thread for what I believe how it will likely play out based on the money they get. If you think it will be higher.... please say why.

No. he's called out someone and then ran away screaming and shouting when it got tough.

If you are going to call someone out then at least respond appropriately.

If upgraded resource isn't going to be used then what valuation for the 5%?

Not sure which post you are referring to but the jist of your posts are :

- The resource estimate is out of date and MRE2 will be used.
- Will go from £16 million in bank to £100 million in bank and make them cash rich.

The second point, I presume is net after the $50 million (£37 million) is paid. So altogether, you are suggesting that they will receive £121 million (84+37) for the 5% which is equivalent to $165 million.

The value you put even after MRE2, it just about supports the current mcap of £600 million!! Bear in mind that the next resource update will not come till towards the end of the year. It is a long time to wait for the SP to break this ceiling. Even then you are relying on exploration upside to lift the share price. Nothing is guranteed.

What if MRE2 is not used? How much will NCM pay then? Going by your valuation, the SP will see an immediate heavy decline.

Zoros - will read it now, I don't filter people.

sproutsdave - then it becomes an echo chamber

good luck everyone... watching from the sides

and porky doing the opposite and sold out :)

ed - at least they will have an excuse for delaying results :)

ok answer this.... take this scenario where $80 million is priced for 5%. How can that justify the mcap of $820 million. do you think the SP will rise the day of this news?

I have the same strategy bojo, invest post news. missed out on 30s as I was heavily invested elsewhere.

Hosai - He is now in the world of grown ups and should behave like one. Why suggest asset sell off and or taking company private? was that a good strategy to increase share holder value or more of a tantrum because things are not going his way. the market sees him as a massive drag on this company. he should hand over reigns to someone else.

YNWA - agree. the point of this thread is to look at both outcomes, particularly if the quantum disappoints and does not seem to support the SP at this point in time.

We don't have the benefit of a time machine to go back few years and invest under a penny. Everyone potentially coming in now, which includes myself are looking at a completely different SP dynamic and risk to reward profile here.