Member Info for Multibagger13

Good evening all :)

Been away and come back to funding news. So another 56m shares and at about 18% discount with decent BoD take up and still closed above placement price - a positive sign IMHO !

Based on dilution and investments indicated, post dilution - DJP has an average of about 21.32p and JC at 26.36p so both are well underwater at current SP. A strong incentive to move things along I would expect. Anil has stumped up a decent whack of £100k. Interesting that JS from Thailand did not take anymore.

Now with the funding distraction out of the way and an indication of a very strong Q4 and expectation to meet revenue forecast, things will start getting interesting and SP should move on next contract news. If the Genus forecast/broker note turns out to be accurate, then we should be seeing quite a flurry of orders ! Heartening to note that one of our major meter partners Genus in India owns about 70% market share...and we seem to lining up / tying up with new meter partners as well.

Interesting that part of our funding is going towards ensuring we get value for our component procurement...as typically contract equipment manufacturers allow for +/-5% forex volatility. Electronic components from Taiwan etc are often quoted in US$, but our income could be in Rupees ? With the slide of the Indian Rupee v the US$ and the number of NIC cards potentially involved, seems to indicate that we are paying close attention to the detail.

Good luck all :)

My concern has been the ability to scale up production and be able to execute the orders ever since there were RNS announcements of large scale contracts over the years - which have not so far materialised. So my attendance at various meetings/presentations and conversations over the years have led to my fairly detailed understanding of the business and revenue models. I suppose the shift from hardware to software and a recurrent revenue model is what has led us to shift the focus of implementation from hardware to a software based model.

Hi tonyj.

A bit of context regarding our role and business model. We are not involved in the installation of the smart meters. We only sell and supply NIC cards to the smart meter manufacturers - we do not have any direct dealing with the utilities or the end customer. That is done by our smart meter partners working with the utility. I believe that 300-400 smart meters can be installed a day, average of 15-20 min to do so at the customer's premises and even this could be done faster, if not for the delays which are usually around the tamper proofing of the meters and various "seals" being placed by the Utility. It is possible to ramp up to 1000 meters installation per day. We have scaled up NIC production to 6000/day at Chennai and 3000 per shift at Bawal and production is scheduled to ramp up from 18k units/month to 100k unit/month from 2019.

Installation of NIC cards into smart meters currently takes about 15 seconds per meter through automation. This is being worked on to reduce to about 5 seconds per meter....so clearly intent there in terms of delivering on scale.

Our role is to provide the Network Integration Card (NIC card) and ensure that it is optimally positioned inside the smart meters manufactured by L&T, Genus and HPL. We then charge the Non Recurrent Engineering (NRE) fee to connect these up to the Head End Software (HES) for the Utility. The HES links up with the Meter Data Management (MDM) software typically Oracle, Siemens or SAP used by the utility to manage CRM, billing, outage information, consumption patterns etc. We then provide on going Support and Maintenance which is about $2 per meter per year currently.

I have been doing my research :)

Looks like Iamrenew is as the Yanks would say a "mom and pop" business....Prasanna and Madhulika Singh being the two people running the show with an outside "advisor"..Dr Pandit.

So basically churning out stuff to fill the website and trying to build "views" to get the advertising revenue to pay to keep the show on the road.

So "Iamrenew" moves down my list of worthwhile / credible sources....

I get the impression that the quality of reporting by iamrenew is a conflation of various aspects of the smart metering procurement story. I would not take it as fact but don't think that he/she intends to mislead either. Just learning the ropes....may be a novice reporter not really understanding what has gone before and basically meeting the Editor's requirement of a word count and submission deadline.

Good afternoon LTI :)

"....I doubt that EESL are looking to replace all 250 million meters, with GPRS specific only meters. And it could be argued that GPRS meters may not be all that smart, because of the problems with call-drops, security and data transfer...."

Having spoken to (who I feel) is an authoritative source fairly recently, I got the distinct impression that the EESL tender with GPRS specification has run into all sorts of problems - basically of the nature of what you have said. As I had mentioned in a post a few weeks ago, it is a non-starter.

I expect the game plan re the EESL tender would be to allow public memories to gently fade (and allowing a face saving exit/plausible excuses to be generated by the parties involved), the very same meter contracts will be re-tendered with RF comms replacing GPRS. No one will be any the wiser.

When you are dishing out contracts of 220-250 million meters across 70+ utilities across 32 States and Union Territories with varying time frames, it would be quite a feat for even the most committed follower to know whether they are coming or going with regards to a million meters spread across various utilities and states !!

Good luck all :)

Good afternoon Vascular and all :)

Good find and thank you for sharing !

Couldn't agree more that we are highly likely to win this contract...on the basis we already have a strong foothold in Indore and the specifications of the contract meet our technical capabilities totally.

Yes, this is a slightly adjacent area of "smart cities" and again playing to our Omnimesh communication/integration strengths....and there appear to be another 99 cities going "smart" in India alone...!

Good morning Jmitc1 and all ,

As we all LTHs know nothing has changed for the fundamentals or prospects of the company...it's just that we are in the midst of a stock market thunderstorm after weeks and months of very fair trading weather. Was to be expected, but you can't predict when it would happen.

As I have been buying CYAN, I know that it has been very difficult to get stock in any decent quantity involving a lot of conversations with brokers, even though I place orders online. I paid often a penny over ask to get stock. My inference from this (I could be wrong of course), is that the Instis have not been forward selling. They would do that if they knew that they were getting a load of cheaply placed fresh stock at say 12-13p in any imminent placing.

So my bold guess is that any funding arrangement is likely to be minimally dilutional. The funding is likely to be made up of different funding streams to raise the needed cash and my guess is circa £5m at the upper end. I wonder if India could be source of funds given that we are expecting a lot from there ?

All idle speculation on my part, whilst waiting for the stock market weather to improve :)

Good luck all !

Good morning Rkk1 and all :)

Of course the market is made up of people with varying perceptions/viewpoints, risk thresholds, investing timeframes, levels of investing experience and resources...and they act accordingly. Nothing wrong with that. The information about the company is widely available in the public domain, it is how you choose to interpret it, synthesise it and act on the same which will determine your financial outcome.

To me the case to invest in CYAN in a meaningful way is hugely compelling at this stage and I am a patient investor (or can be when I need to be).

There are at least 5 major revenue streams as I see it
India
SMETS2 UK
Rest of the World incl Scandinavia
White Label
Support and Maintenance Contracts

Some of these are already delivering revenue and are likely to expand exponentially. We are moving from a hardware to a recurrent software model with a very sticky product - which could be the potential solution to the last mile problem in the future world of IoT. We could be similar to an "intel inside" or "ARM model" in the not too distant future with large upfront payment and recurrent royalties. Our hardware margins at 44% and software margins at 95% allow for volume discounts without being cut to the bone. We currently make about $25-30 per smart meter through the first 5 year cycle and about $2 per year from there on from Support and Maintenance function. Scaling up is not going to involve a huge amount of capex - the implementation risk is with our meter manufacturers. In India we are partnered with 3 of the large Tier 1 manufacturers and therefore benefit from the probability of benefiting irrespective of who wins the bid and India alone is a 220-250 million smart meter market. Anil Daulani's CV indicates that he has closed deals upwards of $200-250m in his career so far - that is an excellent track record. Our cost base is likely to be pretty stable, as bulk of the R&D has been completed for this phase of our products. Our Directors have decent skin in the game and have a track record of successful company exits. We have some large backers with deep pockets who can potentially be a funding backstop.

So I have made some bold investing decisions and pretty confident of a very successful outcome in the next 3-5 years or so.

Good luck whatever you choose to do :)

Guilty of some/many for sure :)

With some US indices showing some modest gains, hopefully a bit of blue across the screens after a couple of days of turbulence.....

Good morning LTI and all :)

As the quarter finished in Sep, we should be due a trading update anytime now by the sounds of it. As tonyj said, we could see some indication of revenues. I think Q4 with the prospects of SMETS2 and a possible white label deal could be the potential game changer in sentiment. We had a trading update on 04 Jan 2018, if I recall correctly. So if that form follows, we could be starting 2019 with a real bang :)

Good luck all !

Good evening LTI, Pedro and all :)

I wonder if the Investor Evening on the 19th of Sep was in effect a trading update, or could we expect one in the next week or so ? I'm not sure we'll have one per se, but it could be that more commercial information is attached to a contract/white label or funding arrangement RNS.

I strongly felt that last week we would get a funding RNS, but I was mistaken. I anticipated one on this Mon morning and that didn't happen either !! Eventually, like a broken clock I will get it right on a particular day :)...who knows may be even tomorrow.

As Overfiend suggested, the longer we have to wait for a funding announcement, the more positive it could be as it may mean that less money is required (as it could indicate that revenues are hitting our bank account).

Either way, as I see it, not long at all before we take a final leave of the SP doldrums. I expect that the SP will react positively with a 2-3p minimum boost with every milestone

..the milestones being

1. Non- dilutional / mimimal dilutional funding clarity
2. White label contract or any other large Indian contract
3. Full year results announcement in early Jan 2019

In other words, I am expecting SP to be around 23-25p by mid-third week of Jan 2019 notwithstanding the usual caveat of force majeure / global financial event !

Good luck all :)

There could a number of SP upward drivers for the share price in the near term.

1. Clarity around funding being settled - SP reaction would depend on mode of fund raise
2. Another big contract with at least some revenues in FY 2018 arriving
3. White label deal with large upfront payment made
4. Meeting (or dare I say it) exceeding revenue forecast for 2018 (at least £7m)
5. Losses for FY18 coming in under what is being expected (£2-3m)

Given the massive potential and likelihood of CYAN becoming extremely successful in the year/years to come, I have taken full advantage of the share price weakness over the last couple of days.... ;)

Once any positive news (alluded to above) is announced, this will rocket by at least 3-4p and it will be very difficult to pick up any sizeable quantity.

I don't argue with fractions of pennies/pennies, when it is £s that I am interested in :)

Good luck all :)

Thanks LTI...

From the previous two posts..@$30 per meter

These are indicative figures...

UGVCL for 23,000 meters = 690,000
Madhya Pradesh (Indore) for 50,000 meters =1,500,000

So it looks like we may be on £7-8m target revenue wise for FY 2018, if we land a white label deal and some SMETS2 contract revenue ?

On a day when many stocks are showing red, we seem to have a bit of blue :)

Good morning LTI and all !

That's very reassuring if we are indeed ahead of schedule and income to boot !

Also based on feedback from the Investor Presentation...I gather that the installations in the city of Indore (Madhya Pradesh order of $3.2m announced on 21 May 2018) is also on schedule to achieve 50,000 smart meter installations by end Dec 2018. So I would expect (if it is indeed true) that the revenue to the tune of 50k smart meters x $30 per SM = $1.5m will recognised by end of the financial year.

CYAN smart meter partners are installing between 300-400 smart meters per day in Indore apparently and can be ramped up to 1000 meters per day based on the project.

So we appear to be gaining traction and revenue :)

Good luck all !

If CYAN comes off in the way that many of us here expect, a few pennies here and there will be totally irrelevant when we are talking £s per share.

I have learned not to sweat the pennies and miss a glorious jackpot :)

From some rconversations I have had recently it appears that EESL has stalled for a number of reasons. It appears that the cheapest bidders were Chinese meter manufacturers and given the historical issues/mistrust between India and China, this was an uncomfortable position for the Indians to have critical infrastructure in potentially adversarial hands. Secondly, the issue was it did not work reliably when it was tried - the "not spots" issue. It also appears that EESL were completely out of their depth in trying to manage a procurement of this size - they were initially involved in some small scale LED lighting contracts in the past and not able to handle the complexity of such a large project.

The last I have heard is that various stakeholders/politicians are trying to find a way out without entirely losing face. It wouldn't come as a total surprise if this is re-tendered with RF narrowband at some point in the future...

Hi LTI,

Many thanks for kind and gracious message, which I wholeheartedly reciprocate. I get the feeling that our time is finally coming...I'm sure there are posters who can conjure up a song to that effect in no time at all :)

Could it be ....It's the final countdown.... ?

Thanks tonyj...more luck than genius I think as I was willing to pay well above the offer ! Once the news on funding is settled and with further contract announcements, this will begin to runaway in terms of SP. I strongly feel that as CYAN is likely to have a stellar future, it is not wise to sweat the pennies, as it is the £s that you actually are after ! Finncap made a penny on each share...
Filling my boots and making the most of a still negative market sentiment....as it is not going to last.

Good luck all :)