RB.18 Apr 2011 12:06
On the company front, Cillit Bang maker Reckitt Benckiser gives a third quarter update at noon on Wednesday which shareholders hope will be a catalyst for the shares to recover some of the losses seen this week in the aftermath of the decision by chief executive Bart Becht to retire.
Panmure Gordon thinks there is little cause for optimism, however. "We believe the picture will remain one of low, or no, category growth in developed markets, continued high levels of promotional activity and only modest price inflation despite seemingly ever increasing commodity costs. These factors, we believe, will continue be the drivers of investor sentiment, rather than the first full quarter of SSL, continued good growth in developing markets and another quarter with no generic entry for Suboxone."
Specifically, the broker forecasts first quarter sales growth of 12.5% to £ 2,253m, versus a consensus of £ 2,279m, made up of 4.0% like for like growth (3.6% excluding Pharma), 9.7% from the acquisition of SSL and -1.1% currency.
"We forecast 0% growth in Europe, 2% growth in North America & Australia and 13% growth in Developing markets. We expect the modest growth achieved in developed markets to represent market share growth by Reckitt. For Pharma, we pencil in 10% growth in Q1, with the switch to lower price Suboxone Film continuing to dilute growth, but creating a more defensible business in a post generic world," Panmure Gordon said.