DPP29 Dec 2011 14:24
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Can the proven international success story of Domino's Pizza be repeated in Poland?
It is interesting to follow the AIM-listed shares in DP Poland (DPP) now they have halved to about 65p currently, back near where they started 2011 after floating in July 2010. Raising £6.5 million gross at 50p a share, the company established a market capitalisation near £10 million, so is very much a small cap.
Yet with the exclusive master franchise for Domino's Pizza in Poland, and roll-out proceeding overall to plan, this is a share to watch in 2012.
Opening the 11th and 12th stores in Warsaw has just met the company's target for 2011 and according to last September's interims "many other potential sites [are] under negotiation." In 2008, cafes, restaurants and takeaways in Poland were estimated a £6.5 billion business, and DPP believes the home food delivery market is worth about £286 million in gross sales.
Euromonitor has projected the Polish pizza food service market to grow by 7% in 2011. There are four existing chains: Telepizza, Da Grasso, Pizza Hut and Pizza Dominium, which in mid-2010 had 107,170, 48 and 53 stores respectively. While this begins to have the appearance of a "me too" industry, only Telepizza is part home delivery/takeaway; the others are restaurants.
One of the main reasons why Poles do not yet buy much take-away/home delivery pizza is quality and delivery service being seen as poor; however DPP is required to ensure the highest standards to meet regular audits by the international franchiser.
Despite the European debt crisis, it may be worth recalling how PizzaExpress became a leading growth share out of the UK recession twenty years ago. Admittedly this was restaurants but it showed how pizza is able to thrive in difficult times, and a well-managed roll-out can translate into financial success.
From the website www.dppoland.com, the directors aim to open at least 27 wholly-owned stores in and around Warsaw by the end of 2012. A national roll-out, which may include sub-franchising, aims to achieve some 65 stores by the end of 2014. While all this sounds exciting, realists may wonder how it relates to cash resources and what mix of (hopefully) self-funding from cash generation and debt/equity may be involved.
By end-June the group had opened two stores while balance sheet cash ran down from £5.0 million to £3.7 million over the first six months of 2011. Only about £0.5 million, however, was evidenced for investing activities, from the cash-flow statement, and the income statement cites pre-opening expenses under £34,000.