Member Info for mulledwine

Forecasts and Valuation As the management stated in its recent trading update, it expects final results for the year ended 31st December 2011 to be in line with market expectations, and as such we have maintained our 2011 forecasts. With regards to 2012, in light of the improved banking terms that have been agreed with RBS, we have increased our Adjusted Pre-Tax Profit forecast for the year ended 31st December 2012 from £1.8 million to £1.9 million, as the benefits of the lower financing costs are reflected in the income statement. Our Adjusted Earnings per Share figure remains at 1.4p per share. The FTSE Actuaries Share Indices Industrial Engineering sector currently trades on a Price/Earnings (‘P/E’) multiple of 17.4 (Source: www.ft.com – FTSE Actuaries Share Indices 24/02/2012). While the company is experiencing a tougher trading environment due to macro-economic uncertainties, Metalrax shares trade on a current year multiple of just 5.7 times or a 67% discount, which we believe is too low especially as management is addressing the level of net debt, having beaten its debt reduction targets while maintaining cash flows. We feel that as the Metalrax story becomes better understood the 2012 earnings multiple could expand to at least 11 times, indicating a target price of 15.4p. Therefore with the shares currently trading at 7.95p, we reiterate our stance of buy.

27th February 2012 Analyst: Andrew Noone Email: andrew.noone@gecr.co.uk Tel: 0207 562 3361 Metalrax Group - Completion of Refinancing Metalrax Group, the AIM listed producer and supplier of specialist steel products, announced on 24th February 2012 that it has successfully refinanced its banking facilities. The refinancing was completed in good time before the maturity of existing bank facilities that expire in August 2012, and the new facilities are on favourable terms in comparison with existing bank debt. The new facilities have been agreed with The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), and provide funding of up to £14 million for four years. The facility has been provided primarily by RBS’s asset based lending team, and as such all associated borrowings are secured against the group’s properties, the debtor ledger, plant and machinery, and inventory. The group expects the improved lending terms to reduce borrowing costs by circa £300,000 per annum, based on the current debt level, and as the management has previously stated, one of its key targets is to continue the reduction of debt. On 13th January 2012 the group released a trading update where management stated that they expect the final results for the year ended 31st December 2011 – expected on 19th March 2012 – to be in line with market expectations. Also highlighted was the maintenance of a positive cash flow from operations and a continuation in the reduction of net debt. The management addressed the continuing macro-economic uncertainty, which was described as ‘concerning’, and announced that the group has seen a weakening in forward order books, although there has not been sufficient time to confirm whether this is becoming a trend. In order to combat the impact of these uncertainties, the management will continue to focus on improving margins and reducing overheads, implementing growth initiatives, maintaining working capital controls, and continuing its cautious approach towards further investment opportunities. Additionally, the group announced a directorate change, whereby Caroline Green was appointed as Group Finance Director as of 13th January 2012. Ms. Green has been a member of the senior management team since 2008, previously as Director of Corporate Development, where she was responsible for the considerable non-core asset disposals that have strengthened the group’s balance sheet, and for the group’s M&A strategy going forward.

UBS raises target from 500p to 545p, buy rating unchanged.

Credit Suisse upgrades from neutral to outperform, target lifted from 450p to 620p;

Nomura raises target from 3,320p to 3,360p, buy rating kept.

UBS hikes target from 3,185p to 3,350p, buy rating kept;

UBS upgrades from neutral to buy, target lifted from 325p to 410p.

CONT To date, announcements of cuts in military and defence spending have not materially affected the future build rates of the Group's two main military programmes, the C-130J military air transport aircraft and the Black Hawk helicopter, which are currently expected to remain at healthy levels for at least the next two years, supported by strong export demand. Looking further ahead, market share gains and the medium-term entry into service of the Joint Strike Fighter and A400M can be expected to provide growth opportunities. In the Flexonics Division, demand for many of the Group's products, both in the land vehicle and industrial sectors, is driven by ever-tightening environmental legislation and global economic growth, with the majority of the Division's activities based outside of Europe. More specifically, the near-term outlook for the North American medium- and heavy- duty truck market appears good, with the Group currently investing in additional capacity to fulfil increasing customer demand, whilst in Europe new programme wins are partially off-setting the continuing weak demand for passenger vehicles. In the European truck market, the Group continues to gain market share, albeit from a low base. Having a global footprint, and being able to support their customers' world-wide needs, is increasingly important for suppliers to the land vehicle market. Senior is generally well placed in this regard, with the exception of China where expansion opportunities are currently being developed. On the industrial side of the Flexonics Division, the global market for large expansion joints is expected to improve slightly from the levels seen in 2011, with the Group's order book currently higher than at the same time last year. Demand for specialist ducting to the UK nuclear industry is also holding up well. Elsewhere, short-term order books are normal for many of the other industrial products in the Division and so future activity levels are much harder to predict. Overall, the current year has started in line with the Board's expectations and prospects for the remainder of 2012 and beyond remain encouraging. Martin Clark Chairman

Outlook I retire from Senior at a time when the Group is well positioned, financially, operationally and managerially, to benefit from the healthy number of opportunities in front of it, particularly in the large commercial aerospace market where build rates are increasing and significant new programmes are due to go into production in the near to medium term. Clearly, global uncertainties remain, notably in the European financial sector, which might possibly lead to reduced demand for some of the Group's products or result in sudden swings in exchange rates, with the US dollar to the pound sterling rate being particularly important to Senior. Nevertheless, against this backdrop, Senior's future prospects remain healthy. The large commercial aircraft sector, Senior's most important, is a truly global market with the growing economies in Asia helping to boost the order book of Boeing and Airbus to record levels, of around eight years at 2011 build rates. Consequently, Boeing and Airbus have recently indicated that they expect their combined 2012 aircraft deliveries to be around 15% above 2011 levels and that, because of the already announced increases in build rates, volumes will increase at a healthy pace over the following two to three years. The entry into service of Boeing's 787 in the final quarter of 2011 was particularly important for Senior, given the Group's significant content on the aircraft and Boeing's stated aim to be building at least ten per month by 2014. Airbus now expects the A350, on which the Group has an increasingly healthy content, to enter service in around two years' time so providing further growth momentum. In respect to the longer-term outlook, Boeing and Airbus have recently announced the future development of more fuel-efficient versions of their narrow-bodied aircraft, which is providing Senior with an opportunity to increase its content on these high volume programmes; early progress has been encouraging. The Group's recent acquisitions of Damar and Weston, whose activities are focused in the growing and visible large commercial aircraft sector, further underpin Senior's growth potential. In 2011, deliveries of business jets were only just over half of 2008 peak levels and, although a significant near-term pick-up in demand is not likely, gradual longer-term growth can reasonably be expected as the global economy improves. In the regional jet market, Embraer's production outlook appears broadly stable whilst Bombardier has announced a reduction in production levels for 2012. Bombardier is, however, optimistic of improved activity when its CSeries aircraft, on which Senior has over $400k of content per aircraft, starts production during 2013. In addition, the recently developed Chinese, Japanese and Russian regional jets are each projected to provide growth for Senior as they enter service, and increase build rates, over the coming years.

Commenting on the results, Martin Clark, Chairman of Senior plc, said: "Senior delivered a record set of results in 2011. Adjusted profit before tax increased by 19%, driven by strong revenue growth and continuing margin improvements, and healthy operating cash flows resulted in a net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.8 times after significant investment in capacity expansion and two commercial aerospace acquisitions. Trading has been in line with expectations since the start of 2012 and this, combined with the healthy long-term prospects for the Group, gives the Board the confidence to recommend a 22% increase in the full year dividend for 2011, in line with the increase in adjusted earnings per share."

Group Highlights - Strong revenue growth for both the Aerospace and Flexonics Divisions - A second consecutive year of record Group operating margins, now 13.8% - Adjusted profit before tax of £78.0m, 19% ahead of the prior year - Acquisition of two commercial aerospace businesses, with combined annual revenue of £70m - Strong cash flows resulting in a continued prudent level of net debt - Boeing 787 and 747-8 entered into service. Airbus and Boeing order intake strong - Full year dividend proposed to increase by 22%, in line with the growth in adjusted EPS - Group outlook remains encouraging

http://www.halifaxmarketwatch.co.uk/rns.cgi?username=&ac=&action=news&rns=1&view=full&story_id=19913118

The big question is how does this translate to profit / loss

On the other hand it could be worth naff all to the SP !

"There is no guarantee that management can find the right asset at the right price, which will continue to be a drag on the share price. However, everything is in place for the company to start heading towards its ambition of being a major global independent oil company," Questor writes. In the Sunday Times, the 'Inside the City' column claims that FTSE 250 high-tech manufacturing group Cookson is "cooking". "A growing number of believers think the firm is misunderstood — and of course, undervalued," the column says. The company is due to report its annual results tomorrow, in which analysts expect it to reveal £258m in pre-tax profits, up 16% on last year. 'Inside the City' notes that Peel Hunt last week initiated coverage of the stock with a buy recommendation and Deutsch Bank recently upgraded its rating to buy. The column asks - why this sudden change? "The fundamentals seem to be good. Cookson’s business relies on volume of production rather than the price of the end product. The more steel is produced, the more ceramic the manufacturers need, regardless of price. This year global production is set to surge by 5%," the paper writes.

One of Prudential’s institutional shareholders has warned of the dangers of the insurer moving its head office from London to Hong Kong to try to sidestep tough solvency rules being introduced in Europe in January. Robin Geffen, managing director of Neptune Asset Management, claimed such a move would raise questions about the “financial health” of the Pru and stir memories of the company’s abortive $35bn (£24bn) bid for AIG’s Asian arm, AIA, in 2010. Geffen’s comments came amid speculation – undenied by Prudential – that Pru chief executive Tidjane Thiam had ordered the review of the company’s UK domicile. Geffen, whose group has an undisclosable sub-3% stake in the insurer, told The Scotsman he had strong reservations about a move to Hong Kong. He said: “If this is a way of the group avoiding European solvency ratios, then investors would have every right to be worried. “If Prudential wants to head offshore in search of less stringent solvency rules then it would raise serious questions about the fundamental health of the business.”

The threat to ARM Holdings' grip on the smartphone market has increased with Orange announcing plans for a budget smartphone – using an Intel chip. The new device, developed under the code name "Orange Santa Clara", will be the first Intel-based smartphone in Europe. It will target the lower end of the market and aims to "democratise" access to smartphones, Vincent Brunet, executive vice president of consumer mobile devices at Orange said ahead of the Mobile World Congress, which opens in Barcelona today. The details of the Santa Clara launch are unknown, but it will be available in the UK and France, and will position Orange to grow the number of customers using their mobiles to access the internet – the fastest growing part of the business, The Telegraph says

Drilling Update Dzheitune (Lam) 28/166 well tested at initial rate of 1,975 barrels of oil per day Dragon Oil plc (Ticker: DGO), an international oil and gas exploration, development and production company, announces the successful completion and initial testing of the Dzheitune (Lam) 28/166 development well. The well was completed with a single string to a depth of 2,810 metres and tested for initial production at 1,975 barrels of oil per day. The rig has skidded to the next slot and spudded the Dzheitune (Lam) 28/169 well. We are currently completing the Dzheitune (Lam) C/167 well with initial test results anticipated in approximately two weeks' time. An additional perforation performed on the Dzheitune (Lam) 13/144B existing well yielded limited incremental production. Drilling of the Dzheitune (Lam) 13/168 well is ongoing.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201202270700161365Y

Ceramic Fuel Cells Managing Director Brendan Dow said recent developments in European markets had added significantly to the attractiveness of the company's products. "The German Parliament has proposed an increased feed in tariff for products like ours, and German states have announced market introduction programs. Earlier this month we stated that we welcomed the UK Government's announcement of an increase in the feed in tariff for micro power and heating products (m-CHP), which includes our BlueGen product. There is no doubt that governments the world over are seeing the benefits of distributed generation of electricity, particularly technologies like ours which significantly reduce carbon emissions."