MPI11 Jul 2012 20:23
Recruitment specialists such as Michael Page International are very useful indicators of economic trends and the confidence of their clients, but they are not a lot of use in discerning economic courses in the future. There is almost no forward visibility of earnings. As one analyst says of Michael Page, at the end of the first half: “The outcome for the full year remains anybody’s guess.” Steve Ingham, the chief executive, says that the market for recruitment at present is stable, static and flat, outside Asia Pacific at least. Europe, particularly the southern half, is difficult; Britain is tough, especially in banking. This suggests, and Mr Ingham concedes, that the third quarter, traditionally a quiet one, is going to be challenging. As the graph shows, the shares have come back from almost £5 in March and, down 13¾p to 360p last night, are back to where they were at the start of the year. They sell on a hefty 20 times’ earnings. As I have suggested before, the time to invest in recruiters, because they are such cyclical businesses, is when they are at their lowest ebb. I am not sure we are there yet, Tempus writes.