Member Info for Mulder

I think the recent fall is actually more to do with the strengthening £ vs $ as Hikma reports in dollars. Despite this however adjusted forward EPS is around 81p giving a P/E of only 14. Historically Hikma has traded on a P/E of 21 which gives an SP of 1701p even after the recent surge in the £. As for the Darwazah family they purchase under a different name/Limited Company called Darhold I believe and some transactions may not be showing. In terms of shorts they are steady around 4% and BlackRock have dropped out at least. To repeat the balance sheet is sound with an equity ratio of 2.26 and is still making decent profits. There seems to be some support around 1119p and we are in the 'oversold' territory again technically. Dividend paid tomorrow. For what it's worth I do think there is more upside than downside here and the upside could be substantial given the 52 week high is 2300p+

Woodford holds a 14% stake here. BlackRock close to 5% Doubt they are very happy with a near 50% fall in SP over the past year. Woodford can't buy any good luck at the moment can he? He probably regarded Spire as his most rock solid investment yet it has gone the way of his tobacco stocks, AA, Provident, AstraZeneca... ********************************************************************************************************************************** After a recent black swan event losses both financially and for the share price, according to rumours in the City, it appears that the time and the price could be right for the two main parties who have been associated with M&A speculation regarding Spire Healthcare. Of course, centre stage is always going to be 29.9% shareholder Mediclinic, given the way the company is just a fraction of a percentage point below the obligatory bid level for Spire. The other suitor which is very much an elephant in the room comes in the form of HCA – Hospital Corporation of America. Previously this summer HCA was said to be buying Mediclinic’s stake off it ahead of making a full offer for Spire, with the mooted level being as high as 470p. Now with the fundamental woes at Spire, it could very well be that it can get away with close to what Mediclinic paid at 350p. Of course, Mediclinic could simply decide to play the waiting game. However, this has not paid off so far, and perhaps with a little arm twisting it may decide that discretion is the better part of valour in terms of its relationship with Spire. As is often the case in the stock market, and beyond, an agreement can always be reached, it is just a matter of the price. From a charting perspective, it can be seen that with a RSI at just 15 out of 100, we have a stock in Spire which is extremely oversold. A rebound might be expected, albeit temporarily, from such lowly levels with or without any corporate developments given that Spires recent travails look to be one offs. https://www.**********.co.uk/blogs/spire-healthcare-bargain-basement-share-price-revives-ma-speculation/

Why does a share buyback automatically drop the SP? There's a scam in itself. P/E of just 10, better than expected results and the SP collapses!

A fall in EPS of 7-8% does not warrant a near 50% fall from the 52 week high. For every seller there's a buyer. Who is selling and who is accumulating at rock bottom prices? 10% below book value at that.

Also has anyone had a response from Investor Relations? investors@spirehealthcare.com

Final dividend in November alone yields about 4.5% Not bad. Also the London Midland franchise may expire in December but the next expiry is not until Dec 2018 so a while away while the Southern franchise has a few years to run yet. Meanwhile I believe the new German business comes on stream next year also.

Isn't it a requirement by law to release a Holdings RNS if an institution is buying/selling? An RSI does not plummet to 13 based on a few sales by PI's?! Something fishy is going on here. Mediclinic were very, very interested in bidding when the SP here was close to 400p last year but now have seemingly walked away with the SP at 'half price'? Balance sheet/equity remains exactly the same with forward EPS down by only 5-10% for 17-18. Again who is selling and why no holdings RNS'? No shorts declared by the FCA so I reckon an overseas/US based hedge fund is collapsing the SP here. Alternatively this could all be a ploy to get 'weak' innocent PI's to sell? In this UNregulated market.

That is the big question. No Director Deals, no holdings RNS so who has been selling all their shares?

20-Sep-17 Credit Suisse Outperform 410p 410p Reiteration

If Mediclinic were truly interested and serious about this then they need to wake up and seize this opportunity. ******************************************************************************************************************************** Spire Healthcare is now in the crosshairs of its major shareholder, Mediclinic International, according to a report. According to Wallstreetwires's Zak Mir, rumours indicate that Mediclinic, which already owns 29.9% of the private healthcare provider, was now minded to take over the entire company. Last year, analysts at JP Morgan Cazenove reportedly suggested Mediclinic might offer a 35% premium for the whole of Spire. Previously, the rumour mill had bandied about the possibility that Mediclinic might be willing to pay a 30% premium, in conjunction with Morgan Stanley, Mir said. As of 1446 BST, shares in Mediclinic were second on the Footsie leaderboard, gaining 3.60% to 734.50p, while those in its mooted take-over target were up by 2.70% at 338.9 https://www.digitallook.com/news/m-a/rumours-resurface-of-takeover-bid-for-spire-healthcare--2766680.html

UPDATE: Mediclinic To Place Takeover Bid For Spire Healthcare LONDON (Alliance News) - Private hospital group Mediclinic International PLC is preparing to bid ... Alliance News16 September, 2016 | 4:28PM Email Form LONDON (Alliance News) - Private hospital group Mediclinic International PLC is preparing to bid for FTSE 250-listed Spire Healthcare Group PLC in a GBP1.8 billion takeover deal, according to website Betaville. Betaville said, citing "excellent sources", Mediclinic is working with bankers from Morgan Stanley on the potential purchase of the remainder of Spire Healthcare that it doesn't already own. Mediclinic currently owns a near 30% stake in Spire. http://www.betaville.co.uk/news/mediclinic-said-to-be-preparing-1.5-billion-plus-bid-for-spire-healthcare/ Spire Healthcare declined to comment to Alliance News, whilst a spokesperson for Mediclinic said the company does not comment on speculation. Shares in Spire Healthcare were trading up 8.7% at 392.10 pence, whilst shares in Mediclinic were down 1.3% at 929.50p. ******************************************************************************************************** A £1.8Bn bid would equate to approx 450p/share.

A rather bizarre and frankly disappointing close today having traded around 245p all day. Very strange. 1 year RSI down to 14 which suggests someone is still selling but no holdings RNS as yet. Directors not buying despite the daily fall which is beginning to look more and more strange and ?closed period. All the brokers post results have suggested Hold or Add with target prices as high as 350p. 18 Sep 2017 Liberum Capital Hold 239.10 260.20 350.00 270.00 Retains 15 Sep 2017 Numis Add 239.10 252.20 - 341.00 Reiterates 15 Sep 2017 JP Morgan Cazenove Neutral 239.10 252.20 376.00 339.00 Reiterates 14 Sep 2017 Numis Add 239.10 309.90 350.00 350.00 Reiterates 14 Sep 2017 Liberum Capital Hold 239.10 309.90 - - Retains Looking at H1 Results again: - Revenue £481M (+2.6%) Vs £469M 2016 Operating Profit £54M (-8.5%) Vs £59M 2016 EBITDA £83.2M (-1.5%) Vs £84.5M 2016 Adjusted EPS 8.7p (-9.4%) Vs 9.6p 2016 Projected full year EPS of 17.4p Vs 19.2p in 2016 **Gives a P/E of only 13.7** 2 new hospitals opened in Manchester (Jan 17) and Nottingham (April 17) so these will help earnings moving forwards. H2 2017 Revenue expected to be flat on H2 2016 *So a projected 8-9% fall in EPS; ask yourself does that warrant a 40% fall from the year high of 400p?* SOLID BALANCE SHEET Total Assets £1.75Bn Liabilities £715M Total Equity £1.035Bn Current equity ratio = 2.45 Excellent Even removing all intangibles equity ratio is 1.72 Spire will not be going bust!! BOOK VALUE = 259p Now trading comfortably below book value.

GOG/Go Ahead Group is another. Final dividend in November alone yields 4.5% with current SP at 4 year lows.

Go-Ahead Group (The) PLC GOG HSBC Buy 1,619.00 1,641.00 1,970.00 1,940.00 Reiterates

Results actually ahead if expectations. P/E of 10 Dividend raised also and more buybacks!

Apologies for the off topic posts folks but just wanted to add a point about DOM. Not sure if you are still in it oldbadger but I got out recently breaking even after noting the shorts had gone up to around 7%. No shorts declared here BTW although the trend nowadays is for US/overseas hedge funds to short UK stocks and the FCA do not have to declare this as they are 'overseas'. A lot is wrong with the market nowadays make no mistake.

Apart from this if you want a quick in and out have a look at AVON, GNC, ITV, CNA, WPP, CINE, DC. All have been hammered and most have an ex dividend coming up very soon.

H1 Results tomorrow actually not 22nd I am half expecting the market to have one of their manic mornings trashing this by 15-20% on the back of a slide in EPS and a 'challenging market' - both of which are not unexpected. Any troubles in Europe and here have been well flagged so it will be a con as always with short sellers/MM's toying with the SP. I prefer special dividends to buy-backs as the SP always seems to fall during it which is suspicious in itself - just look at WPP at the moment. NG, SSE earlier. The real strength of KGF lies in its cashflow and superb balance sheet that is the best in the entire FTSE100 Also trading below book value still.

Holder Shares % Held **Woodford Investment Management Ltd. AS OF 01 MAR 2017 56.15m 14.00% [Yes Woodford has had another bad result here so far] Capital Research & Management Co. (Global Investors) AS OF 01 MAR 2017 19.37m 4.83% **BlackRock Investment Management LLC AS OF 01 MAR 2017 18.01m 4.49% Norges Bank Investment Management AS OF 01 SEP 2017 13.15m 3.28% GIC Pte Ltd. (Investment Management) AS OF 01 MAR 2017 12.19m 3.04% USS Investment Management Ltd. AS OF 01 SEP 2017 11.70m 2.92% The Vanguard Group, Inc. AS OF 01 SEP 2017 7.44m 1.85% Legal & General Investment Management Ltd. AS OF 01 SEP 2017 6.56m 1.64%

Well technically this is still massively oversold with an RSI of only 15. (An RSI < 30 is generally accepted as being oversold) Now no Directors have bought so far which is suspicious. I get a feeling they may be in a closed period which if confirmed would mean they are in discussions over a bid offer. The SP has not been this low since Spire floated 3 years ago so one would hope they don't think the SP has not fallen enough! Zak Mir has been tipping Spire as a take over candidate for several months at a time when it was trading at 320-330p; valuing it as high as 450p/share. https://wallstreetwires.com/spire-healthcare-group-spi-l-finally-shareholder-mediclinic-mdc-l-pounce/ The SP fall is due to earnings expected to be flat for the next year but that still gives a P/E of only 14. The balance sheet is excellent with an equity ratio of 2.5 and £1Bn in Shareholder Equity.