Member Info for Mulder

Yes 2 new hospitals the benefits of which will be felt in H2 with several others refurbished. The new Spire Manchester hospital (six theatres, 76 beds, ITU) opened in January 2017. The new Spire Nottingham hospital (five theatres, 56 Beds, ITU) opened in April 2017. Launch of new GP services also. What is so unusual here is just how low the RSI is: 13 is obscene. Low 20's is thought of as hugely oversold but 13? We are PI's on the outside but it does seem like someone is accumulating. We are practically back at 2014 float levels and nearly 45% off the 52 week high - why would Directors not be buying at these levels? Can anyone think of a reason why because I can't. Unless something is going on behind the scenes...rumours for a year now. Compared to Mediclinic the P/E here is also low now at 13; Mediclinic is 20+ I repeat book value here is 260p in what is a highly defensive sector. Demand for hospitals, operating theatres, wards is an absolute certainty of course and will only grow.

17:01 228.68p 139,973 £320,089 Buy NT Recorded as a buy after-hours - time will tell if true.

Both Vectura (5%) and Hikma (4%) up strongly today. Positive news may have been leaked.

Strong rise today - up 5% Hikma also. ?news leaked of approval.

Same as the past few days then with the seller waiting until the last 15 minutes of trading to make a string of quite large sales. Bizarre pattern emerging. The same question then - who is mopping up these shares and one for the FCA - why has there not been a single holdings RNS? RSI of 13.1 remains hugely oversold. Not even a technical bounce so far which is strange - again who is suppressing the SP and how?

Dividend 6.3% (covered 2x by earnings) Enough said.

22-Sep-17 Jefferies Buy 2,425.00 2,070.00 Reiteration 20-Sep-17 HSBC Buy 1,970.00 1,940.00 Reiteration 11-Sep-17 Canaccord Genuity Buy 2,350.00 2,080.00 Reiteration The SP has got a long way to catch up to these target prices. 30% UPSIDE I would NOT be short here - especially with the tasty 4.4% dividend coming in a few weeks...

I would not be surprised if it was. oldbadger will tell you how Pets At Home was savaged by short sellers earlier this year. For 3 months the SP was kept in a very tight range of 155p-160p regardless of the wider FTSE and fundamentals. Then within days the SP suddenly shot up to around 180p for no reason and is now sat around 210p.That's a near 40% climb and nothing has changed! This sort of blatant manipulation happens all the time. Questions you have to ask yourself here are: - 1. Most important - is Spire going to go bust? A: With £1Bn in shareholder equity and an equity ratio of 2.45? No. 2. Demand for private healthcare? A. Yes - increasing demand in coming years. 3. Does a 1% fall in EBITDA (excluding one-off exceptionals that were mainly due to just one rogue doctor) for H1 and 0.7% fall for H2 warrant a 43% fall in SP from the year high? 30% in the past 10 days alone? 4. Is the P/E high? A: No. Projected (adjusted) P/E is only 13. Historic P/E is 20+ Mediclinic is trading on a P/E of 22 for example. 5. Were the persistent rumours of a bid here over the past year fabricated? Unlikely IMO. 6. The RSI of 13 is very, very low. Who has been dumping this many shares and why? Who is buying them? Could the buyer be increasing their stake to help position a bid? 7. Why have no Directors bought at these prices? Spire floated at 210p 3 years ago and the company and balance sheet is far stronger and larger now. The SP has not been this low since the float. The sad thing is if an offer did come in now after this fall even a 30% premium to the closing SP only gives us 300p. That would be a real bargain for the buyer whether Mediclinic, Hospital Corporation of America or someone else as the NAV/Book Value is 258p

I am out of all construction and housebuilders - particularly after the destruction of Carillion. Same goes for for outsourcers like Serco and Interserve. They've been a disaster. I would also be a bit wary of companies like Unilever, Reckitt, Burberry and Merlin that are trading on P/E's in the mid-20's even 30. If you are looking to make up some of those paper losses then yes Hikma should come good in time as should Vectura. Utilities like SSE, United Utilities and Centrica look undervalued. Greencore, Go-Ahead Group and as I mentioned yesterday Spire are others.

16:41 232.16p 135,791 £315,255 Buy NT 16:41 232.16p 77,445 £179,798 Buy NT I assume you were referring to these. Surely the SP should have risen into the close though if these truly are buys? The SP was kept in a tight range all day despite threatening to break out several times. Meanwhile the RSI remains in obscene oversold territory so someone is still selling but who is hoovering up these shares? For every seller there is a buyer. This is the biggest question of all and will determine what happens next. If it is an institution selling then where are all the holdings RNS'? It was only on 12th July this year with the SP at 360p that rumours of a bid were rife. 40% discount now. Meanwhile the IR department and board remains mute not responding to any correspondence.

Yet another example of this today. The company/nominated bank depresses the SP to buy back shares at a lower cost. 319p to 296p in 2 days for no reason other than 'buy backs' Obscene scam.

I expect to hear some news over the weekend. A share falls >60% from its 52 week high and is down 30% in the past week alone yet not a single director buys? Come on. If a company was riddled in debt with negative equity and about to go bust I could understand this approach. No chance of that here as outlined many times. I may be wrong but something is going on IMO. What do others think?

Have you guys sold out? I guess that is what the market makers driving this down would want. Even if this gets down to its 2014 float price of 210p or less I will not be selling a single share. There is no smoke without fire and a P/E of 13 for this kind of share with £1Bn in shareholder equity and a book price of 260p + revenue from new hospitals coming online every year is far, far too low. The NHS will also become increasingly privatised over the coming years and who do you think that will benefit?

11:05 235.00p 27,439 £64,482 Buy AT 11:08 235.50p 22,918 £53,972 Buy AT 10:59 234.30p 22,582 £52,910 Buy AT 11:06 235.00p 19,436 £45,675 Buy AT These look accurate. No Director Buys yet which probably means they are in a closed period so can't buy. If true then an offer is coming soon and it should be 350p+

Proof of buys is the RSI has risen to 17 from 13.

Yes it is a disgrace and it goes on all the time. Shorters blatantly manipulate the SP down to stupid levels. It is going on right now at Spire Healthcare for example. Arguably Hikma, Go-Ahead and Vectura also. Again well done if you held and ignored the doom and gloom.

On level 2.

Spire Healthcare (SPI): Although Spire Healthcare is currently about as popular as a romantic date with Kim Jong-Un, the technicals after the latest sharp losses for the stock actually look quite compelling. This is because the Relative Strength Index currently stands at just 13/100, something which is in the extremely oversold quadrant. **For clarification, such a setup only occurs every year or two on most stocks or markets.** This would suggest that even if the stock is eventually to trade lower we could be treated to a 10% – 20% interim dead cat bounce.** At this stage only back below the 225p level on an end of day close basis is seen as being a sign of a sustained decline, rather than a bottom fish opportunity. https://wallstreetwires.com/charting-show-dge-drx-jmat-spi/

Yes seems to be that way. Not exactly sure but nice that an SP of 150-200p is being expected!

Sticking to the healthcare related share theme some of you may want to look at SPIRE - the second largest operator of private hospitals in Britain whose share price has been butchered these past few days and has long been rumoured as a take-over target. 52 week high 400p and now trading at 230p. The balance sheet is even better than Hikma and is trading at a substantial discount to its book price of 260p. The RSI is only 12 (!) and you would be getting in at 3 year lows.