View of the man on the train13 Feb 2018 14:32
The divi will always be a minimum of 30% of free cash flow generated, which is post profit share. This is the case even if they decide to build/buy another mine. The other key is CEY having a cash buffer on the balance sheet of between $250-300m. That is to be deployed for the building of the next project, cash for a rainy day, etc. Anything above that level will be given back to shareholders.
The reason the divi was 100%+ of cash flow is that the cash generated was strong and they did not have a project to earmark for development, so they handed it back to shareholders. In terms of the forecasts for profits, well no-one knows what they are going to be because of a fluctuating gold price, currencies, fuel costs and other variables.
What CEY believe is that they are going to produce 580,000oz in 2018 at one of the lowest cash costs in the industry, they will share the free cash flow with the Egyptian state in the way that has been very well explained, and whatever surplus they have (over $250/300m on the balance sheet) will be handed back to shareholders. People have to remember that this company last raised funds in 2010/2011 and has never come back to shareholders for a cent more. Nor do they foresee a time when they may need to.
The profit level is somewhat irrelevant really, it�s the cash flow which is the real value of this business.