Member Info for mrtibbles

Autonomy.
It's time in, not timing and that is certainly the case with all the unpredictable's of a producing and profitable gold mine.
Annoying, frustrating, surprising and at times rewarding, but this is Centamin as you may come to appreciate if you stay around.

Take your point , but even if the won concessions are in just the right place, it's not a case of 80,000oz just jumping out of the ground, we have all experienced just what unexpected set backs can occur even in an already established and producing mine
It seems that far too many financial journalists and analysts fail to understand or purposely ignore that every mine is very different and just how much effort and investment is needed before the gold production starts to be produced in earnest.
True there will be a feel good factor and possibly some pumping of the SP if Centamin is successful in its negotiations gets the plots it wants on the terms it want's ,but that is only the start of the hard work and expense and it may be some considerable time before any extra ounces can be accrued with the existing Sukari output.
Some say that Centmin is overvalued at present, if that is the case then its makes a mockery of taking into account any predicted or hoped for extra ounces from any new concession area's at this stage simply because that gold ore is still in the ground and as any long term holder has learnt there is no guarantee on the grade of any ore for any period or the ease of its extraction, the proof is in the pudding!
So even though Sukari has some problems at present they are being rectified and it is still actually producing to a very respectable guidance at a known grade and higher AISC, but still making a handsome profit from which it pays a handsome divi!
So Centamin overvalued at present?

Mr Zambian,
Still common sense and decency prevailed and they got rid of narcissist Trump, although it will be difficult to lock him up as he is clearly insane !
Although to be fair What's Trumps got to do with Centamin, he is after all a failed and flawed yesterdays man , must keep on topic ha, ha!

All the better if World Quant & Black Rock lose out!

Good man Siko!

Thank you Super C!

Very valid point Rebess, it's all about the intensity of the pumping to excite the analysts, media and trusting punters, those fortunate enough to have got in early enough on the pump have usually bailed out just before what has been promised to the ordinary punters fails to materialise due to some unexpected occurrence!
Two or three names come to mind!

Contribute to reducing commodity prices?
Cowichan, I think he must mean reducing the prices of commodities such as essentials (Bread,,diesel , gas ,etc) to the population in these area's, possibly some sort of state subsidy, although hardly fair to the wider population which the SCC should surely rule as undemocratic, i certainly wouldn't be fair or politically popular.
This sound's just like yet another "Mad hatters tea party!".

Valid comments Cowichan,
How many years/ decades now has the president and politicians been making similar types of declarations of changes and new futures?
They can't even get the lazy judiciary( SCC) off their butts to give a ruling on 32 or a judge to make a ruling on the trumped court case brought by a now discredited politician and convicted felon in exile who has admitted his accusations are false!
How many years now since the judge was unwilling to give a ruling because court case went into limbo supposedly to await the decision on Law 32 by the SCC?
Does the SCC still exist or function, if so its hardly apparent, are they retired or still alive, who knows?
City of gold indeed, more like a desert mirage of "Pie in the sky!"

Quite so , Autonomy!
The vast majority of these concession winners would likely have more success producing rocking horse poo than they will have producing gold!
This is the difference between the dreamers , spoofers and a professional established gold miner actually producing gold!
Might this be why the Centami negotiations are still going on, they know what's really involved!

Hi Dasut,
More nails on the head, again!

Hi Dasut,
I knew the logistical problems and challenges involved from what you have explained in the past and I wanted to try and answer Autonomy's question, but you have already done so most clearly.
I am of the opinion that you have also hit a couple of very important nails on the head quite squarely in the closing part of your statement!
Tibbs

Hi Autonomy1,
Your points are valid, specifically regarding those that are primarily interested risk and fast reward, or loss as the case maybe with so many day traders and those who have become addicted and prisoners in their seats on the up and down merry go round of leveraged CFD type of trading.
This is very apparent reading some of the posts of member's on some of the other forums who seem to think that the movement of Centamin's share price is predictable and will conform with usual trading patterns, as long termers well know it never has and most probably never will!
But they are traders and most can never be bothered to try understand Centamin or any company they buy into, true they may enjoy some success , but this is usually by luck as far as Centamin goes rather than successful trading tactics!
Most of us are long term holders have learnt that Centamin is a contrarian share and expecting it to perform to usual trading patterns is pointless for so many known and as yet unknown influencing factor's, not least of which is the culture and politics of the country in which it operates.
Mark Bell quite rightly stated with regard to Centamin that patience, patience and even more patience is needed!

Centamin is the only mining company in Eygpt that is actually producing a very respectable amount of gold making an excellent profit in spite of a generous profit share and over $300 million in the coffers with no debt, yet the SP is scraping along the bottom!

So I wonder just putting aside the usual hurdles of running a foriegn business in Eygpt and considering the initial investment and CAPEX needed to get mines started and established whilst taking into account how many years it may take to actually start producing any gold, I wonder what the share price of these new companies will be and who would be tempted to invest in them?

I would like to know as much as everyone else, frustrating to say the least!

Although wonder whatever happened with the SCC , they went away to reconsider Law 32 how many tears ago now?

I think some of these new mining companies are in for a bit of a shock when it comes to dealing with the Egyptian officialdom!

It will probably be many decades before they start producing any gold, if ever!

Official response this pm -
Centamin are still awaiting clarity re the license awards!

Centamin response-
Block caving was looked at for the underground mining, at the very beginning prior to mining Sukari.
The challenge is the lack of uniform grade across the ore bodies, and the big challenge with block caving is dilution.
The method chosen at Sukari (cut and fill) is the best at maximizing returns through volume and grade.

From a mining consultant
Block caving requires a massive amount of development BEFORE starting mining, after which it will become very difficult to change approach.
Block caving is a very specialised mining methods and relatively rarely used for a host of reasons. Usually a company needs to extensively train its employees as the skills are not generally available. The authors of this valuation report have no personal experience with the mining method and had to extensively draw from documentation on the internet, the most important being:
• Underground Block Caving: A Guide for Investors at: https://investingnews.com/daily/ resource-investing/underground-block-caving-guide-investors-open-pit-mining-rio-tinto- codelco-freeport-grasberg-chuquicamata/
• Design & Operating Principles in Caving Methods (V.N. Kazakidis): http://cosmo.mcgill.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Vassilios-Kazakidis-Design-Opertaing-Principles-in-Caving-Methods-compressed.pdf
• Open Pt or Block Caving? A Numerical Ranking Method for Selection (F Rashidi-Nejad et al): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/269397396_Open_pit_or_block_caving_A_numerical_ranking_method_for_selection
Block Caving is the only mining method that would be potentially economical for Alpala. At the very low average grade the deposit can only be economical by using a very low-cost mining method such as open pit mining. However, the depth at which the better grade blocks are located, starting at around 600 m below surface makes open pit mining unattractive with the huge amount of material needing mining before better grades are fed to the plant. For this reason block caving was chosen as it has the same level of productivity as open pit mining and is a very low-cost method. The low operating cost comes however at the price of very high initial investment on primary development and infrastructure and with a much longer development and ramp-up period, typically between 15 and 20 years, than open pit mining.
• There are however a number of major pre-requisites for successful block caving, being:
o A deposit with large dimensions in all directions.
o Suitable geotechnical characteristics of the deposit and surrounding rock. This information was not available at the time the PEA study was undertaken. Assuming block caving will be appropriate and technically possible is a large leap of faith. Mining Plus even observed ”this study recognises the existence of some areas of poor ground and which will be identified in greater detail in further geotechnical testwork”.
o Block caving operations must be away from inhabited centres as they create significant risks for water resources, infrastructure, buildings and human lives due to ground subsidence.
o Being in a low precipitation area and with rock conditions that do not cause great influxes of ground water.

All very valid points Rebess!
Also worth noting that users & investors of Kinesis are dealing with a trustworthy organization that actually has physical bullion in store to underwrite all deposits.
Something lacking in most other crypto/bitcoin currencies!

Thank you Dasut, I spent a couple of hours watching Cat videos!
https://www.cat.com/en_GB.html