Member Info for MrMagic

mine = well

They may well have good reasons for holding back production, but in the final analysis, what traders and investors alike want to know, is exactly how much money is that mine making for the company, and they want and need to know that information on a regular, open and honest and consistent basis. We've gone from a situation last year where NCT was churning out RNSs regarding LM#20 by the bucket load, to the point at which it went into production this February and was still then being touted as seen test rates above 300 bopd and 200+ bopd over a 3 day period, to a position of almost news blackout about that well for many months. We now are told that the production rate is just 100 bopd ! This isn't negativity. It is the kind of company behaviour that breeds cynicism, poor sentiment and lack of trust. If you want traders/investors alike to respond positively to these projects then you have to publish the relevant figures in regular reports whether they are good or bad. That includes production rates, production volumes, production costs and sales figures. Basic stuff really ! Saying production rates are intended to be 200-250 bopd one month, then saying nothing for 3-4 months and then telling us it's actually 100 bopd is ridiculous imo.

"Don't those tests stand out for you??" Why should those test results be any more useful for predicting ACTUAL rates than the test results we were given for LM#20 and which were ramped to high heaven on NCT and RRR boards?

It's manual but don't let that put you off. In test runs it was capable of brushing 350 kgs of muck per day but as that brush rate tended to put a lot of dust into the air, the manufacturer recommended that the operator choke down on the handle for better control which brings the brush rate down to about 100 kgs/day.

I'm gonna buy you this Orslega, as a present for all your hard efforts: http://www.thedustpanandbrushstore.co.uk/ourshop/prod_2616849-36-Extra-Wide-Large-Soft-Sweeping-Brush-Large-Warehouse-Floor-Sweeper-Broom-with-Handle-100667.html It will help you brush the discounted placings and the low LM#20 production rate and the delayed LM/21/22 drills and the huge increase in share issue and the decimated SP under that carpet much quicker. :-) under the carpet

Jackal, to gauge significance of these wells and determine whether NCT is undervalued you need to take the whole company into consideration. Today's RNS states that LM#20 is worth $27,000 GROSS per month to NCT which is $324,000 per year. Compare those kind of numbers with the numbers just released in the recent end of year Final Report for Administrative Expenses alone which were totalled at $5.6m. Of that, $1.3m was impairments, fair enough, but that still left $4.3m as "Other Administrative Expenses". The directors alone took $808,000 in remuneration last year (RC $283,000 of that) That's the kind of perspective one needs when considering if NCT is undervalued imo!

Yet this doesn't stop Orslega using "TEST" figures as the basis for his rampy numbers for LM14 lols. Test figures for LM#20 were 325 bopd, or over a 3 day period 200 bopd but we're now being told it is producing just 100 bopd. Should we then treat the numbers for LM#14 any differently ? If the tests show 40 bopd should we expect the actual production to be just 20 bopd? Same for the gas? What is the cost of producing that gas? Gross figures are meaningless, we need to know the actual profit. I presume also that we are just flaring that gas at present if NCT are in the process of negotiating a gas tie-in deal. Overall this was the "jam tomorrow" RNS I was expecting. The actual real news, the low production rate of LM#20 given just 1 sentence amongst a page full of other well updates.

The absence of news/reports suggested bad news was coming. Today's RNS highlights that LM#20 is producing just 20 bopd for NCT (20%), so 100bopd overall. Compare that with the upbeat figures in the RNS of 7th Mar which said: "the well . . . has been tested at a rate as high as 325 barrels of oil per day with a 30/64th inch choke; and for the last three days produced in excess of 200 barrels per day on an 18/64th inch choke (105.6 barrels per day net to Northcote) with a 30% oil cut. The operator, Shoats Creek Development, Inc., has advised Northcote that it intends to produce the well consistently at between 200 and 225 barrels of oil per day" A bit of a come down then. From 325 bopd testing flow to an intended 200-225 bopd by SCDI to an actual 100 bopd now. This is why I always ignore rhetoric and sound bites which deal in terms like "expects", "intends", "anticipates". The only thing that matters is the actual result that happens. Why has it taken 4-5 months to inform shareholders that the rate is just 100 bopd?

Why are you posting oil figures without costs Orslega? That seems quite disingenuous. If you are using $45 as the sale price of a barrel of oil, what is the actual net profit per barrel to NCT?

Maugid, feel free to use the filter facility if you don't want to see my posts. Also note that highlighting things such as discounted placings or the string of sells at 0.026p and similar range we are seeing, is not negative posting. We must deal in reality, not whimsical could be's, maybe's, should be's and wouldn't it be nice if's.

There will always be buys and sells but what makes the 25m sell at 0.0256p significant is that it must surely be at a loss wouldn't you say? It's not isolated as I have repeatedly pointed out, there have been quite a few trades at 0.026p in the last few weeks. I've heard no plausible explanation from the regs here why someone would sell this much at a loss esp if, as they keep touting, there is so much jam to be imminently delivered. It just doesnt wash but each to their own.

20m @ 0.0256p. Significant?

today at 0.027p, 3 over on ISDX. When was it ever possible to buy at 0.027p or less?

I agree Helpful. It's a shocking state of affairs for a 3% holding to not be formally RNSs after almost 2 weeks. The only other explanation is that there are more shares in issue than we thought which leads to Noli's suggestion of a placing.

Tend to agree Labrat. I notice there is still someone slowly selling. In the last 2-3 weeks there was a steady stream of sells at around 0.026p, a price that as far as I can see must be loss making. Then there was the large sell of 27,500,000 at 0.027p on 8th June. Today more sells in the 0.027p-0.028p range. Clearly, imo, someone knows something. I don't subscribe to the "they must need the cash quick" routine in such circumstances. Why sell at a loss at this juncture ? I ain't falling for the "jam tomorrow" routines I'm afraid.

An example of rapid news flow when things are good, the plethora of RNSs put out last year when LM20 was drilled: 30 Jun 2015 - "Drill crew on site, operations commenced" 13 Jul 2015 - "Drilling underway" 15 Jul 2015 - "Drilling reached depth of 5,500 ft" 21 Jul 2015 - "Encountered 10 ft pay section " 01 Sep 2015 - "Test results of 260 barrels and 500 mcf of gas" Heady days indeed. Then , , , 02 Feb 2016 - "production operations are now commencing and the production rate will be reported in due course" 07 Mar 2016 - "[well] tested at a rate as high as 325 barrels of oil per day" Since then, no regular production/sales report. If the numbers were good, I can't think of good reasons why the company would not RNS them

Delays in basic news flow are very often indicators of bad news imo. Companies are usually swift and quick to fly good news from the rooftops, but tend to be far less eager to publish bad news. The LM20 well has been producing since Feb I believe, so where are the quarterly figures? It is now July. LM21/22 drills were delayed and the RNSs from NCT/RRR confirming the bad news didn't arrive until 8th June, some 3-4 weeks after the previously announced drill date of 16th May. If there were delays, why didn't they inform the markets immediately on or before 16th May so people could make informed decisions? The longer we wait for updates on key projects the more likely I personally tend to think that bad news is coming. That may be a pessimistic view, but on AIM, it seems to hold true quite often. I would rather be initially pessimistic than follow the "jam tomorrow" hopefuls.

and yet, just like yesterday morning, the Bid looks exactly the same at approx. 0.028p. The Bid price is the only price with any meaning. Anyone who wants to pay way over that Bid price is welcome to do so, but the Bid is all the MMs will pay you for your shares.

If I'm wrong about that then I'm wrong but it has been my perception and that of others on various shares for quite some time.

Doesn't really matter which MM raised the Ask, or why TBH. The point is the Ask is increased but the Bid inevitably stays where it is or moves very little in relation to the Ask. That simply has the effect of the Mid SP moving up which then shows as a rise. It even puts the share on the Leader board. It's a sleight of hand imo and happens on most AIM shares with monotonous regularity. When they raise the Bid above the placing price of 0.0315p then I will take note.