RE: This should be on 'Gamblers anonymous@7 Jul 2021 15:48
Part2In fact, the EU played its hand very badly. There was a real threat to London’s pre-eminence, but as so often the EU believed it could regulate its way to victory. Its strategy was all stick and no carrot, and that was never going to work. The UK has had a lucky escape - but right now it looks as if the City is safe.
When Britain voted to leave the EU five years ago, the bloc had plenty of different objectives. It wanted to keep the UK close enough to control, maintain the unity of the remaining 27 members, and squeeze as much money out of us on the way out as possible. But one arguably took precedence over all others. It wanted to kill off the City.
London’s position as the continent’s key finance centre, with its banks, brokers and asset managers enjoying unrestricted access to Europe’s markets, had long irritated the French and the Germans. This was the moment to seize the prize.
Placeholder image for youtube video: kST7EGBXQP4
Plenty of money and energy was poured into the campaign. France sent an endless series of delegations to London to flirt with bankers: at one at The Shard in 2017, its officials promised to relax redundancy rules for firms moving across, while personal tax rules were tweaked to tempt executives to relocate.
The Paris bourse even allowed firms to download the licensing forms in English (quelle horreur!), while France’s then-prime minister Manuel Valls promised to "build the financial capital of the future".
Frankfurt poured money into opening international schools for all the financiers moving across, while Berlin opened a permanent office in London to deal with what it believed would be a flood of applications. Financial services were deliberately excluded from the Withdrawal Agreement to ramp up the pressure on the sector.
There was nothing ridiculous about any of that. The opportunity was there. Much like any industry finance depends on market access and a sympathetic regulatory environment. Many banks genuinely thought they would have no choice but to move their offices. The plans to move tens of thousands of staff were real enough.
And yet, in truth, it has all fallen very flat. Amsterdam claiming top spot for equity trading from London in the immediate aftermath of our departure attracted a lot of attention, but in less than six months London has moved back into first place (allowing trading in Swiss shares, banned in the EU after the country declined to sign up to Single Market rules, made a big difference).
When Amsterdam snatched London's trading crown
Bar chart with 2 data series.
Average daily volume of European share trading, €bn
View as data table, When Amsterdam snatched London's trading crown
The chart has 1 X axis displaying categories.
The chart has 1 Y axis displaying €bn. Range: 0 to 16.
End of interactive chart.
Only a few jobs have been transferred, and those have easily been replaced. Sure, there will be the occasional attempt to reboot the campaign.