Member Info for MrHumble

In essence, it's like you don't exist. Nor the listing per se

An irrelevance lol

So it's not just geo risks etc - it's risk on value of any occurs. Which is higher than the geo risk

In essence what we have here is total Ethiopian control if all occurs. Not in %s but obviously in blocking rights and control of local regs etc etc. If much of anything is forced into share conversion, they end up with % control . And if they 'hit gold' one day? I can easily see a 'technical breach' call, and dump you lot in a day.

So really, this is free mining for the Ethiopians, who will control all if any value actually exists.

Must be even worse having to think that just to feel better about yourself

Thanks Steve. "KEFI will own c. 75% of TKM and the remaining c. 25% will be owned by the Government of Ethiopia

Yes i understand that massively dilutes UK investors, yet no risk to the gov though holding a UK share. That's only TKM

It's not covering at all, the cap table of today and looking forward, and only one facet

I better go. The trend is concerning. Every time the word 'risk' is mentioned (strikes terror into others narratives), it somehow leads to me being a Crimson Druggie

GLA

82% of all that listed on AIM, are a combination of delisted/trading under inception price. Most of the others are in real terms since inception, underwater v inflation/opp costs.

This is the reality of the little caps. Given forums are a vast majority of promoters guised as retail bulls, I think the only relationship i can find with complicit, is them having any platform at all.

Dear me the usual promoter terminology appears. Bad actor - erroneous character - and so on. I wont even attempt to defend my view given anyone can look at it's all time chart lol

Im off to the cosmos man.

Later dudes

Great analysis. If you were that good years ago, you would never have been here tbf

How to phrase it? The morning is like a mini breather or soft (numbers) relief rally.

Usually they tend to sink hard by day or week close.

If Harry can complete the deal based on risk, we really need that current and forward cap table. Right now, it's far far away. Note, the signing off is probably at the risk level. The hardest part.

Do note you need 1.. the breakout and 2. That breakout rate.

Just had a quick look at adv's one. Very interesting range. Certainly, a 1.2x000.3 breakout rate would be very good. Only a quick look though. No detail really.

https://x.com/YankTrain17909/status/1963154578641175011

I better go do some photography. Not a great aft ahead here i think. il try to understand the first time ever approach to financing there, and the associated risk that is not signed off for financing yet.

It's all double tap. You have to pay the interest in whatever format, plus the financier and Co premiums on political risk etc etc.

If KEFI fails to pay an insurance premium, the recovery scenario would be absolutely brutal for all parties involved.

The Nightmare Scenario:

If the premium failure coincides with deteriorating security, financiers could face total loss while KEFI's assets become worthless or inaccessible. The insurance lapse removes their primary protection right when they'd need it most.

This is why the financing structure is so precarious - one missed premium payment in a volatile environment could trigger complete financial collapse.

I just can't understand the approach on risk.

The only part solution would be for the Gov to own a big stake, for possible protection. But they do not, right?

The risks attached to having no war etc, are massive. The history and tensions are deeper and of longer history than in parts of the middle-east. Particularly the Oromia region.

To go slightly off topic, I am staggered anyone is considering big financing in the area today. Amazed the bank underwriters are accepting of such risk, and it would be the coup of the century to get it done.

The underwriters are essentially betting on Ethiopia maintaining sufficient stability in a very volatile region for the entire mine lifecycle. Given the country's complex ethnic federalism, ongoing conflicts, and history of resource-related disputes, it's a remarkably optimistic assessment of risk.

For a $240 million project, they could easily be looking at $10-20 million annually in insurance premiums alone - potentially 15-25% of expected annual cash flows going straight to risk mitigation.

Not a convincing interview of 'everything just over the line'

I need the hardcore ownership numbers and dilution analysis - not explanations or speculation. If the data isn't available to provide precise percentages and cap table projections, just say so. No discussion, just results

Dude, they have teams at big funds working out these type of financing arrangements for a reason lol. Never mind us on a forum