What should the CLN restructure look like ?!24 Feb 2026 14:45
Let’s focus our minds on how we think the CLN restructure should look (because this is where the next re-rate really comes from). This is my take, appreciating we just don’t know at this stage (before some get excited):
Realistically, the CLN restructure now needs to look something like:
- a minority share of EME net dividends (circa 30–35%)
- hard cap on total repayment (principal + interest)
- paid only from SPV/Mako distributions
- no conversion overhang
Anything much higher than 35% would just kill equity value and actually make it harder for the lenders to get paid, because the market won’t re-rate the shares. That’s not in their interests now is it.
The lenders don’t want Mako. That’s not their business model and complicates matter for them. They like simple. They are binary. They want a clean exit with certainty and that only happens if EME equity survives and rerates.
That’s why the CLN update matters so much. A sensible, capped structure is the green light for the next leg up - and that would be huge!
IMO we’re getting close to that RNS!
Anyone else have a different (sensible) opinion?