Member Info for MrEMC2

Today I was pooed on the back of my shirt as I had a photo taken of me standing beside the Lassonde Mining Building , University of Toronto, 170 College Street. That's got to be a double good omen for my holding of GGP shares. Surely, now the only way is up! GLA MrEMC visiting daughter in Toronto.

Hi TomE, in your message to me 10 March 12:42 you suggested I buy back the shares I sold for a wee profit. Well I bought 42,900 shares this afternoon in spite of my gloom. I am hoping for a wee profit in the not too distant future. Cheers MrEMC2

What is a low ball offer for GGP and can we be sure that it would not succeed?

"As premiums indicate value above that of the company in markets, this implies additional value the acquiring company needs to extract from a deal. Thus, the higher the premium, the higher the risk that the deal will not create value for the shareholders of the acquiring company. If we look at recent large deals, we can make some interesting observations. The gold industry has seen three deals greater than $1 billion in which no premium was paid for the transaction. This scenario helps companies curb the downsides of M&A. Similarly, we noticed that most large deals (excluding deals led by Chinese companies) were stock deals. Again, this approach helps reduce potential downside from M&A activity, because both companies share the upside and downside of the deal".

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/gold-industry-m-and-a-riding-the-new-wave-buoyed-by-lessons-from-the-past

I thought that when JPM’s short was in the open that the share price was doomed but I did not want to believe it because of the constant stream of good drilling reports. It seems to me that the drop in share price is accelerating and I can’t see what in the short term is going to stop it going lower than 12p. I just hope it does not drop into single figures because then ‘capitulation’ will result in the fleecing many PIs. I’m off to bury my head in the sand.

If IIs feel that they 'missed the early boat' on GGP how low does the price need to fall before they think it is good value for them to buy big? Lower than 14p as they only dipped the tip of their little finger at that price. So what price - below 10p?

That's very nice for you. Now if you can tip Greatland Gold to do 18/1 from here that would be wonderful! GL MrEMC2

@5eightaccount
As you will know Dakota Gold won at 18/1 - well spotted did you win?

What's the betting that NCM MRE2 comes out only slightly higher than their original 4.2m ? It's enough to go mining.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/250083901_Errors_and_Uncertainty_in_Mineral_Resource_and_Ore_Reserve_Estimation_The_Importance_of_Getting_it_Right

"Dominy et al. (2004) summarize various articles that address the non-or under-performance of a resource. For instance, Burmeister (1988) reviewed 35 Australian gold operations that produced metal from 1984 to 1987 and found that 66% of them had not achieved targeted gold production in the first full year of production, while only 2 out of 35 had achieved their projected recovered grade".

Of course we all know that Havieron is exceptional so they won't be pulling the wool over our eyes.

Ben
The valuation is something like $500m to $600m ; 5% of that is $25m to $30m

They are still negotiating so it could be $30m+ based on the GGP MRE

It is not in Shaun's gift 'to accept or not accept' but he can go to arbitration if the valuation gap between the parties is more than 20%. It must be more than 20% to talk about going to independent valuation in several months' time.

Hi Benrumpson1
Look at it from the other side - your NMC, you have negotiated $65m for 70% - what do you offer for 5% more at a time when drilling results indicate there is 4.2m oz in the ground?
The figures were extrapolated from the PFS by someone else and I was shocked when I heard them.
We need to get past the 5% but it is dragging on and stifling the share price even when we get news of good drilling results. Shaun is doing the best for shareholders and hopefully he can get us a few $m more. ATB MrEMC2

Today news and share price action is dispiriting and it is not immediate comfort trying to be positive that all should come good by 2024. I am particularly disappointed that we need to wait several more months for the 5% to be resolved and out of the way - and is that months until it goes to arbitration and then months until a verdict and then NCM takes 30 days to decide whether to take up the option? And all for what, the difference between $25m or $30m+?

Patience has moved from sitting on hands to crossing fingers and praying that we get a strike at one of our other tenements in 2022.

Sorry not to be more up beat.

6:55 minutes "at some stage an independent valuer will come in" ......... months away!!

"Criticism of the 5% being in the contract is probably unreasonable". Not according to Shaun

Hi Bamps - thanks for clarification. I meant 'mistake = missed opportunity' . Mistake is the word I would use colloquially if I had missed those opportunities myself. On the 5% I am guided by what Shaun said at the town hall meeting . ATB MrEMC2

NCM costly mistake 1 not drilling HAV deep enough; mistake 2 not taking over GGP when it was 2p ; are they really going to make mistake 3 over the 5%??? We can only hope so for the benefit of GGP shareholders.

Tymers - looking closer at the figures although some big holders have not declared at both snapshot points, data seems to support you statement. You win

As I said before declared total May 2020 £410m total Apr £525.9m but agree some holders have been selling.

"Some of our holders are obviously selling hmmmm"

Not by much - sample of declarations below

£M ? = unknown
(May) 2020 Apr 2022
30 56
30 25.9
19.25 23
20 ?
13 12.75
18.86 ?
13 10
13 ?
7.8 5.5
7.2 6.1
17.5 ?
9.375 ?
10.256 9.4
? 20
2 16
7.4 ?
? 13.344
Total
218.641 197.994

Tymers 3 4
MrEMC2 0.7 0.9

For making money on mining explorers - steel yourself:

Rick Rule said - it's a rodeo ride, hold for 5-6 years, be psychologically prepared for lots of volatility, need to be able to stomach more than 20% - 50% declines many times.

Hydrogen - I can't find the original link you posted can you help?

In the meantime have a listen to this:

Masterclass on How to Make Millions Speculating in ExploreCos with Rick Rule:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxxZOA403dY

24:58 minutes to 25:20 minutes

"for good deposit the easy money is actually made after the initial run up"

For those who bought with averages below 6p I have been looking back over threads
"the million dollar question" and
"takeover of Greatland Gold" 16 April 2020
speculation then was of a possible low ball takeover 11p?

When that did not happen and after those discussions where could one have reasonably been looking to top slice based on the top of the first wave of the Lassonde curve ?

10p , 20p, 30p, ............. £1.44p

GGP has always been a once in lifetime find for me.