Member Info for mrc_mrc_mrc_mrd

Chris now ramping his other share.

Disgraceful

Yes it’s a fire sale. The alternatives are relinquishment, or massive dilution. This is the best option.

I expect the Market cap to stabilise now around 3-5 million. It could be a stable base to build a real business IF funding can be arranged for new assets and the BOD stop giving away all the money to Gneiss.

I think the BOD now need to go as part of a recapitalisation deal (assuming the AD business strategy is viable and funds can be raised to expand)

There is a bit of a political game to be played here as well. Policy ambiguity could win some concessions in the EPL.

You are mistaken 44

The loan should get repaid by WEN as they will be responsible for costs from the economic effective date (jan 2022).

If the deal doesn’t go through then SCIR would have to repay the loan.

Yup, keeps the BOD in fees for another year. Not enough left after that for any new assets. This is a face saving relinquishment. Nice headline deal value but the devil is in the detail.

I expect Gneiss will take their 20% of the headline number rather than if/ever the milestones are met.

I suspect the next RNS will be prolific basins taking their shares at 0.4p.

Yes that is nonsense

Chris - nowhere near to cost recovery I expect. We don’t see the bulk of this cash for years (if ever)

In a high inflationary environment jam tomorrow is not worth a great deal.

You must be gutted with what the BOD have done. I know you had your heart set on keeping Ruvuma for one last go at “10 bagging”…which in SCIRs case amounts to “breaking even” for the lucky ones…

Highland,

It’s a step in the right direction.

No cash until transaction approved (which presumably could take several months?). And then only a few million which won’t even cover the Gneiss fees I expect. At least the Loan gets them through the valley of death.

Morning all

Well well, the BOD had the balls to do a deal at a low ball price to get out. It’s a good deal IMHO. The money is meaningless but they now don’t have the cash calls to deal with.

Well played BOD. I might even buy some shares once they come back down to 0.4p.

So if you plug the debt in and compare again your target SP for the combined entity comes down.

Also not sure how you get 110kbbl/d production. And remember not all barrels are worth the same. Most of cairns is fixed price (low). And TLWs barrels don’t seem to result in much FCF (though the reduced debt servicing costs will help improve that).

I’m not convinced by TLW and think CNE can do better going it alone or with an alternative offer. HBR might even be a better fit.

E121 - we might need an RNS for that sort of Info and I don’t think ENQ will release one just for that. Maybe they have another announcement up their sleeve and could tag it on to that before the AGM.

Also I don’t think ENQ are in a position to increase Capex spend until debt is sorted, so all we would realistically get is a confirmation of commitment to North Sea (or otherwise) and highlight the Capex spend this year that will reduce the levy.

I think both those bits of information would help the SP so hope we do get something. Even if it is just warm words. I’ve never been to an AGM so not sure what you normally get at these things other than the procedural stuff that needs to be done.

Agreed savemore- my point is that if POO stays at this level for 12 months then the debt disappears and we can fund a medium sized project without taking on a lot of debt. The bigger costs on any Bressay project won’t be incurred until towards the end of 2023 IMHO.

I think JS has said in the past that $500 million net debt is the ceiling.

Concept studies this year, FEED next year, FID and FDP end of next year.

So plenty of time to refinance then reduce net debt. Remove covenants in the refinancing so that SH distributions are allowed.

Romaron

They produce oil in the UKCS so they pay U.K. RFCT, SCT and EPL.

Hi SIPP

There is a sunset clause of 3 years so the next government would need to legislate to extend beyond that. Of course that is possible.

Technology has moved on in the last 30 years and we have developed mariner and kraken successfully in the meantime. All of the learning from mariner, kraken, Bentley, and bressay are now available to ENQ and the bressay partners.

If ENQ come up with a development concept that makes money at $50 long term oil price then I think they should be doing it.

I get why people don’t want it. We will have to wait and see which road AB takes us down. I expect a cautious approach but equally AB is not the sort of man to run the company down.

What about debt burden Deeko. You should use EV.

Well Pelle, it depends what affordable means.

For me it is having debt at a sustainable level, investing for the future, and yes, some sort of SH returns.

It’s all very achievable IMHO with a phased development if POO stays high for the next 12 months. ENQ have signalled a cheap and cheerful development so my view is top end around £1 billion (£400 million to ENQ). Now is the time to do it while the GOV have some leeway to approve FDPs.

We need something to keep Kraken FPSO / Enquest producer fully utilised.

If they can extend bonds for 5 years then they can afford a big project over the next 3 years.

I don’t think they would get tax relief on the purchase price if buying an existing asset so I think that is unlikely now.

Actually Dumbly I think the tax break encourages any type of investment. With the profits we are making it will take a large project to fully mitigate the tax. And we get the 20% back on the spend immediately. So the choice is either pay the government 25% (and distribute the rest or invest overseas), or pay the government 5% and reinvest all profits in the U.K.

Most of our peers are going with the latter option (Ithaca, Kistos). I suspect ENQ will do the same if they can get the debt maturity pushed out.

Yes - problem is that the David Attenborough referencing types are generally not very well informed (other than about the “urgency” and the fact that it is a “crisis”). Some people on here are interested in having a real discussion.

It’s an important topic and banging on about the negative effects doesn’t resolve anything. It’s actually a very pessimistic view about humanity. We are miserable sinners and require Jesus like behaviour to redeem ourselves. Otherwise our children and grand children will be punished.

A much healthier and optimistic position to take is that we are brilliant problem solvers. We may not solve the problem perfectly (Just Stop Oil), but we will find a way of stopping or mitigating the worst consequences.

My view is they will relinquish Tanz assets and become a purely biogas business.

They have been trying to sell for 5 years with no buyers in sight and they can’t afford to fund it without devastating dilution.

It’s not a popular view here.

I think the BOD are hopeful that their He1 shareholding will get a drilling pump and dump that they can sell in to.