Member Info for MrAltruistic

Morning All, a sector update snippet from the Shares magazine. Worth a quick read IMHO.

The link: https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/big-banks-fail-to-live-up-to-the-markets-high-expectations
Regards, MrA

Barclays' blunder in the US - and subsequent litigation costs - is worrying, and other similar mess-ups are unlikely to do the bank any favours with its shareholders. A recently announced probe announced by the regulator last week into Barclays' anti-money laundering controls is not a good look.
Where next for Barclays’ share price
Barclays’ share price slid 6.6% last week following the publication of the results. The fallout was felt on both Lloyds [LLOY] and Natwest’s [NWG] share prices - down 4.5% and 6.5%, respectively, for the week.
The downturn in the stock reverses the upward momentum experienced since the start of the year. Year-to-date, Barclays’ shares are up over 9% and had been up over 18% the day before the publication of the results. This reflects a rise in the fortunes of UK banking stocks as a combination of rising interest rates and hopes that a recession won’t be as bad as once feared. Barclays’ disappointing results could dampen investor enthusiasm for the wider sector. How its rivals perform this earnings season will be key to understanding the bigger picture
Of the 17 analysts polled on the Financial Times, Barclays carries a median 12-month price target of 240p. Hitting this would see a 38.3% upside on Friday’s close of 173.5p.

Regards MrA

The link: https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/opto/can-barclays-share-price-recover-after-disappointing-earnings

Morning All, the latest opinions from CMC Markets /OPTO, For those that do not want to subscribe:

Barclays’ share price dropped after its full-year 2022 results missed expectations. Money earned from investment fees fell dramatically, and the bank was forced to pay expensive litigation charges over a trading blunder. However, now the dust has settled, what does the investment case look like for the bank?
Barclays’ share price fell more than 10% in Wednesday morning trading after a bitterly disappointing earnings announcement, sending the bank to the bottom of the FTSE 100. Precipitating the drop was a plunge in fee income for its investment banking business.
Full-year pre-tax profit fell 14% to £7bn, including a hefty £1.2bn impairment charge as customers struggle with the mounting cost of living. Net profits slid 15% to £5.09bn. Piling on the pressure was a trading blunder that led to the over-issuance of securities in the U.S. This resulted in Barclays stumping up £1.6 billion in litigation and conduct charges throughout 2022, up from £397m the previous year.
On a positive note, income was up 14% year-on-year to £25bn for the full year, reflecting growth across departments, including consumers, cards and payments. Net Interest Margin (NIM) was up 34bps year-on-year to 2.86%.
Barclays’ share price hit by investment fee decline
Barclays is one of the world’s largest investment banks, so the slump markets experienced in 2022 was always likely to impact the trading side of the business. In the end, investment fees slid 39% year-on-year to £2 2bn. The bank also cut its bonus pool in half following a series of regulatory and compliance-related mishaps last year.
Yet there are some reasons for optimism in the results. Barclays hit a double-digit Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) across all three of its operating businesses. Barclays UK, the bank’s business and retail banking arm, had a RoTE of 18.7%, while Consumer Cards & Payments and Corporate & Investment Banking were 10% and 10.2%, respectively. For the full year 2023, Barclays is aiming for a RoTE greater than 10%. NIM is expected to increase by over 3%.
This investment case for Barclays is still the same as it was before the publication of the results. Unlike its competitors, Barclays is less resilient on interest income thanks to its diversified business model, with a substantial bulk in earnings coming from the investment business. This has helped the stock remain resilient during the past few years of ultra-low interest rates and the pandemic.
The decision for investors is whether the disappointing results are a one-off or not. The bank is well capitalised with a CET1 ratio of 13.9%. It also announced a £500m share buyback scheme in Q1 2023 and a 7.5p dividend for 2022, both of which could allay investor concerns. Yet a significant recession could, of course, result in some more volatility in Barclays' share price... continued

Morning All, i must confess that i do have a warmth towards Seeking Alpha.

Their latest views, post results.

Summary & Conclusion
The market was clearly disappointed with certain aspects of the BCS 4Q22 results. The areas of 4Q22 weakness that I have identified were, for the most part, already captured in my normalised valuation framework for the stock. From my perspective, therefore, the negatives in the 4Q22 result have not materially impacted the investment case for BCS.

BCS remains well capitalised, with a CET1 ratio of 13.9%. The company has announced a £500m buyback, to commence 13 March 2023. For income-focused investors, using the FY22 total dividend of 7.25p (which has scope to increase), BCS is yielding ~4.1% pa. Note that at the time of writing, BCS is currently cum-dividend. The stock will shortly go ex-dividend, with a 5p per share dividend payable on 31 March 2023.

Based on the 20 February 2023 London Stock Exchange closing price of 175.88p, BCS is trading at ~60% of the company's reported 31 December 2022 TNAV of 295p per share. Management is targeting a RoTE of at least 10% in FY23E; should this RoTE target be achieved without the benefit of significant one-off gains, I would expect the current gap to TNAV to close materially. Although the share price has bounced nicely since my previous review, based on my fundamental analysis and valuation work, I continue to see a significant upside in the BCS share price. I am therefore comfortable with a strong buy on the stock at current levels.

The ful link: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4580218-barclays-post-result-price-dip-offers-value-opportunity

Regards MrA

Good Morning Warsaw,
I hope you are well?

"You can lose yourself in chasing too many stocks and ideas, consequently you miss opportunities that are under your nose." - Totally agree.
As with most things in life one saying counter-balances the other e.g. "Don't put al your eggs in one basket". Bottom line is that we all make our own choices to suit at the time.

Inevitably politis will overshadow and affect financial markets. As a floating voter, I am happy to be convinced by all canditates. The incumbents trading as conservatives have probably overstayed their welcome. But as per yourself, I want to try and avoid bringing politics onto this board. That said, my biggest concern is the mad man a.k.a. Putin. Any future substantial 'tricks' or 'stunts' from this individual, if you excuse the pun, could potentially nuke the markets. God willing i sincerely hope not.
Anyway, let's finish on a positive... a crisp but sunny morning here in Wolverhapton, time to take 'her indoors' out for a coffee and cake whilst reading the press and getting my hands dirty.

Good Luck my Friend, Regards, MrA

Some good points shared here. Thanks.

Good Evening razzledaz, totally agree... we all have 'skin in the game' to try and make money. The board, to me should always act as a multi-source of information and stimulation. This includes, but is not limited to, whether to confirm views, contradict views, introduce new information and remind us of past information. A few chuckles along the way also helps. Some great posters on here... both past and present. Fascinating at times to see how two individuals can have opposing views on the direction of this stock, predominatly exchanged in a respectful manner. I have scaled back on the amount of 'news' posts i share on here purely because of caring commitments but will post where i feel it may add value.

A pure Barclays stock 'in isolation' trader since 2012. I previously traded others stocks, including Barclays, prior to this date but just found it too time heavy to monitor even with my light touch chartist approach. Having just had a trip down memory lane and checked my CGT transaction spreadsheet it included the following companies i traded, many of which have long since disappeared, been acquired or de-listed.
Powergen, Tarmac, Amstrad, Interactive Investor, Beeson Gregory, TT Group, Bradford and Bingley, Watermark, Skyepharma, Xaar, Delta, Artisan, Maelor. A collection of multi sell and buy trades in each stock all within my self-select isa.

Smallest Profit = £86 with Watermark
Biggest Loss = £20,319 with Skyepharma

Barclays have typically behavoured in a repetive manner for many years, hence my 'luck' in returning the cost of a cruise for her indoors pretty much every sngle year since 2012 with the aide of my light touch chartist approach. Don't get me wrong, I've Still lost money on a few deals but more than recouped those losses on others. I stil have long term lump bought at £1.20 but are sitting on a hefty lump of cash in my ISA which will be used at some stage as a purchase of this stock.
Who else do you trade? Good Luck My Friend, Regards, MrA

zebbo, no poison, envy or jealousy from me. Similarly, if I can be so bold, I suspect the silent majority might replicate my views of Good Luck and healthy profits to you and all. On the whole, a pretty good bunch of posters here. Your experiences are probably no different to the majority of us, regardless as to how we trade this stock. Try to get in towards the bottom of a wave, try to sell out towards the top of a wave and be grateful of profit.
Good Luck my Friend, Regards MrA

Evening All,

Newdealz - Hope you made a profit on your 1.7585 sale.
JayK - “if your looking for an entry, I think time is on your side…” Agreed. Lowered my entry point.
TheReducer - As I’ve done with my last 4 or 5 trades, l’l post my Buy transaction at the time,
MrWolf - “MrA notice you are curtain twitching atm for a nice entry point”. Yes… beautifully put.
zebbo - “Better to miss an opportunity than jump in with haste” - Never a truer word spoken.

Regards and Good Luck All, MrA

Limbo dancing above and below 170p as I type. Inching towards a possible big ‘lump’ purchase for me as a short term trade. Let’s see what happens today and especially tomorrow.

All imho please myoc and gla.

Regards MrA

Ha, ha, ha, ha, rofl ??

Good Morning Newdealz, ha, ha, ha. Made me laugh. Well Done!
Sadly this leopard struggles to change it’s spots. On the flip side, good swing trade opportunities if that’s your bag and you can get your timing right?

Just saw the NatWest price after announcing much more positive news than Barc… Wow! What a kick in the Jacobs Crackers from the Market. Down 27p - 9%… Shame I’m not close to the historic behaviours and mood music of this stock as there would appear to be opportunities here also?

Good Luck My Friend, Regards MrA

One more write up for the road…

Probably explains in detail of the collection of disappointments returned by the Bank and the rationale for the markets reaction?

Regards MrA

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1006211/barclays-profits-fall-dented-by-increased-litigation-charges-1006211.html?rel=scroll

Evening All,

A decent write up here from Shares Magazine over the events of yesterday.

Shares tumble on 'underwhelming' full-year update

- Retail and investment bank both miss forecasts

- Share buyback not enough to lift sentiment

Worth a read. Regards MrA

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/barclays-shares-slide-most-in-a-year-after-disappointing-results

bald_eagle,

Pleasure to see you ‘swoop’ back on the board. Hopefully you might be able to ‘claw’ a profitable deal?

Hope all is well my friend. Regards, MrA

MrWolf,
I hope you are well my friend?
I remember the advert very well. “In the future….”
Most of the predictions from 1998 proved to be pretty accurate.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=52M-AYrY708

Enjoy! Regards, MrA

“We were both kicking ourselves a bit for getting out at 180 I bet.”

JayK,
Maybe a little kick up the backside… with slippers firmly on. But no such thing as a Bad Profit!
How many times have we all hung on only to find that decent profit evaporate before our eyes in seconds? Another trade, another opportunity in my book. Looking to get back in but will keep my powder dry for a week and then reassess.

Hope all is well with yourself and the family. From memory, not long to go before the pitter patter of more tiny feet now?

Good Luck My Friend. Regards, MrA.

Yes... as previously shared by a number of posters for the record:

Summary Next dividend
Status Declared
Type Final
Per share 5p
Declaration date 15 Feb 2023 (Wed)
Ex-div date 23 Feb 2023 (Thu)
Pay date 31 Mar 2023 (Fri)

https://www.dividendmax.com/united-kingdom/london-stock-exchange/banks/barclays-plc/dividends

Regards, MrA

Morning All,

What a day yesterday? Clearly I cashed out a week early at 180p but with hindsight still a damn good profit in my eyes. My simplistic strategy tells me that the nice round 170p floor/support level is key here for the next 7 days, if that is broken then, short term, time to understand where the direction is.

From a simplistic point of view, and it doesn't always play out this way, if they can 'hold their own' at this level, theoretically next Thursday 23rd Feb 23 is ex-dividend date of 5p and "normally" I would expect the price to drop to something close to this 5p differential. Questions include:
1. Where will be close price on Wednesday 22nd Feb 23?
2. Assuming the price drops by the ex-div of circa 5p then would this be possibly good time to buy i.e. assuming no interest in the Dividends and you are short-term trading the stock?
3. No curve ball 'news' announcements.

As previously mentioned on here the buy-backs will potentially give some sort of short term hold but only for the benefit of short-term traders.

All IMHO, please MYOC and GLA.

Mr Wolf and JayK, thanks for your continued input and contributions. Truly appreciated. Regards MrA.

I want to see what happens when the Dow Jones opens at 2.30pm but at this level I am severely tempted to “rinse and repeat” another big lump short term trade?

MrWolf, JayK et al… any thoughts?

Regards MrA

US CPI Update

Consumer price index data released on Tuesday 14 Feb 23 showed that prices for a range of goods and services rose by 6.4% over the past 12 months, down slightly from an annual rate of 6.5% in December and a 40-year high of 9.1% in June.

Inflation eased for the seventh straight month in January 23, helped by lower costs for used vehicles and offering some relief to consumers struggling with high prices over the past year.