Member Info for Mr.Flibbles

I've started to drip feed 2k into Shanta. Used to follow it about 10 years I think. Juniors always take longer to catch up. My copper play is CAML and my nickel play is HZM.

Sadly we'll need to take a bit off for energy prices but yes all very profitable.

Absolutely there is nothing fundamentally wrong here and the worst thing to do is sell at the bottom. At the same time the volatility can be expected due to the VC nature of the business and sector and is not related to the market-cap. The Listed Private Equity market is the VC parent sector and those discounts have also widened with the most popular being HVPE which contains 40% of these types of companies, while HGT contains bigger SAAS companies and has a more stable share price but less upside potential than GROW.

Has anyone kept a track of all the placings that have taken place for HZM and can confirm November last year was 7p and the placing before that was 7.5p? Is there anything I have missed?

What is driving this drop is the IPO market and in high duration, stocks had been overvalued including GROW in a fed induced rally that burst at the start of the year and these overvalued stocks (let's be honest) including GROW are falling and as losses mount up more people sell, then the stocks become undervalued including GROW and the sellers still persist chunking in the towel and the share price that was a premium is now at a discount. When the net selling is done the buyers start a new a rally where there are more net buyers. The next rally may not be as strong but it will happen.

I just added £2k at £6.519 on two bits of bad news. Europe down again because of Russia AND the fed look like they will continue to be hawkish due to a strong US economy. I did not expect my RR buys to be underwater so fast either but RR being well looked at like all the main market stocks it is impossible to add value so down today up tomorrow.

Apologies that NAV for GROW was for November at 887p and a 23.68% discount, all the points are still valid.

These are the discounts but don't get FOMO and buy on the down days only. Don't get suckered into CHRY that I bought at 80p and sold at 250 and 266p as the NAV they have is calculated at the peak of public markets and since they have 25% is Klarna that is large risk and held onto some very poor IPO's like THG while GROW sold out of their IPOs.

Discounts to NAV:

CHRY 27.48% (NAV in Dec)
GROW 23.56% (NAV in March)
AUGM -0.84% (NAV in March)
HGT 0.97% (NAV in Nov)

I would say that Molten is 20% undervalued in comparison to its closest peer group. I see Molten as a smaller VC version of HG Capital.

Well the nickel price did fall on this news but has since bounced back this morning. Vermelho is still safe but this is all about Araguaia. Nickel aside the Lithuim plays in Australia I follow actually ended up higher.

Dictators have time to take a long term approach knowing they will still be in power while western positions only have a short term view to worry about.

I note ZNWD has not bounced. Location Germany and the price is at the last placement so I've started my drip-feed. I presume we lost a lot of investors here and others have chucked in the towel meaning net selling could be done now. Happy to add at 12p to get a nice discount to placement.

Great to know you all. If you do sell out please leave a message :-)

Hand on heart GROW was overvalued in October but we are now very much undervalued again as net sellers run out. Looking at our peers CHRY has some structural issues around being 25% in Klarna and bad IPO of the THG while the likes of HG Group share price remain strong. I see GROW like a lite HG Group.

Yes and some good luck to all of us needed.

Out of interest and to help validate my theory many people are still left in GROW, please say hi?

If there is no prospects of takeover the share price would simply drip lower for another year. M&A in the sector is much needed to drive up prices for everyone in the exploration sector and frankly, IMO there is little better than this left on AIM. I remember a time when a premium was paid in the sector for simply fundraising.

Hi Steph. I am back in like we were when the pandemic hit and at a nice discount of 26%. I suspect the net sellers are done after today so I hope leverage-sellers are not going to need to sell allowing people to buy back in making a profit. I have recently learnt over the past few years that investment is all about buying stuff no one wants and selling stuff when they do without being greedy, and I had a very busy day picking up a range of stuff... because this time unlike 2020 in tech we have the prospects of potentially persistent inflation for years after we reach peak inflation this year, but you know all that. So I picked up some random stuff to diversify like CCL, RR, AWE, PHLL that all these companies went up by the end of the day, but these are still very cheap trusts OCI, ICGT, PIN all at 30% discount while BRLVA has 75 discount that have not gone up after lunch. HVPE contains 30% VC and is offered at 27% discount.

This is a II hopefully. Seller at 6.10p and buyer up to 6.20p

I have added a small amount with a vew to adding more on extreme moves.

Profit warning + Lots of liquidity on the sell-side allowing us to sell easily. Great move by those in the know.

You bunch of romantics wanting these vacancies filled and dream about being the next Vale. This is not the ideal path when you can be paid upfront at the right price. I think the slower timing from these vacancies and radio silence and allowing the share price to drift lower is all part of M&A strategy... at least for one of the assets.

The radio silence is a good thing for me. It means week holders will be selling. The best time to buy a stock is when forum chatter is zero with investors chucking in the towel and I have seen some evidence of that at HZM. Whoever is left now mostly ain't going to sell under 7p. For years my money is all in top-down trackers but there are multiple top-down and bottom-up factors making HZM rather compelling. Brazil as a region is undervalued and is my most overweight position using BRLA (BlackRock Latin America Trust) and gains there I recycle into HZM. HZM has had a fundraiser underpinning a share price of 7p and fair value is north of this be it 8p or 20p or whatever I don't know or care. A massive chunk of the share price is supported by cash that will be converted into an asset maintaining NAV. Commodity prices may peek in April with peek inflation in 2022 but inflation may well persist and as long as there is demand for Nikel I see both near term and long term upside here..., especially over my other investment in Europe.

Probably not related but I wonder if these buys are from the seller at EMH also reported late. Better to be in a safe jurisdiction than risk investing in potentially unstable regions like Europe ;-D