George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Please - the company zero debt. That technical calculator would work the same against MATD as it does against BP. It takes into account dividend, yearly yields and assets etc. MATD is a small aim listed company that just spent its year capital of drilling 3 wells. It has struck oil of a commercial scale and now in the process of working on extracting it. Soon as thinks are rolling, that little assessment algorithm will be far behind the curve as it will wait for balance sheet growth etc. And the chump VCM11 who keeps posting on that side is about as technical gifted as ice skater on water. DYOR, this one is for the medium to long hold IMO.
Im personally very heavily invested in this share and I see it breaks down as such:
Positives :
Commercial discovery taken place
Farm in Options
Company hugely undervalued, that will be rectified in time.
Negatives:
Permit concern
Awaiting exploration license
Funding concerns with three options: Share dilution and capital raise, bank loan, equity release from Heron.
I feel its going to be a quite appearance for the next 10 months, whilst MATD get to work in the back ground. There will inevitably be two RNS updates. One for the permit/license situation and one for the capital. IMO, most likely scenario here is Exploration license is awarded.......75% bank loan or bond is secured and a 25% share dilution will be raised. When I say 25% Mike B mentioned he needs about $25 mill, so roughly $6.25 to be raised via share holders. As one option, I can see the expo license announcement taking this 5/6p range then a raise around 6p. Once funding is secured, expo awarded and the commencement of Heron 2/ 3 is detailed and announced this will be press on to double figures and beyond. Absolutely no reason to for a decline at this stage and a great opportunity for SH.
Only real concern bothering me is the remaining capital from the bank. Question is, what bank? Mongolian banks are not the best, so it would more than likely be a foreign to Mongolian bank involved. Then that means terms....what terms? How long is the loan.....whats the actual repayment cost? Are other big oilers going to fund It and want a stake in Heron? Will Petro china broke a tough deal to use their refinery facilities.
Few unknowns, but to get this to safe territory for most a simple Expo awarded and announcement of funding will push this to blue ground. From there, its peoples choices to twist or stick.
Just my take, GLA DYOR.
Namibia is a bad idea. It has bust and cost many companies 100s of millions of dollars over the years. Never, ever, ever ends well for companies looking for oil there. I can see movement in the share, but for me, thisnis notnone to be involved with for a long period of time. GLA
Just a matter of time until this company de-lists off the exchange now. Definitely the worst company i have ever put money into. A valuable life lesson here. Hope all long term holders make your money back elsewhere, possibly MATD - ECO - TLW, GLA
I heard through the great vine that they are on the hook for the wildfires in US. I picked some up today, but have a feeling i might close out come end of day. Hoping for a short term bounce. GLA
"the Board now expects full year profit before tax to be significantly below current market expectations." ..............Says it all.
Where is the bottom............................
Some serious after market trades going on here - can see this opening much higher tomorrow and a %-10% bounce coming. GLA
90% more buys than sells yet its currently down 2%. This is going back over £2 spon enough. With the volume of buys coming through now, its blatantly being kept down by MM. GLA
My buy is showing as a sell, not all it seems here. This is massively undervalued since announcement of solid discovery. I think announcement of Exploration license with send this up dramatically. Im very happy to pick up as many share as I can and hold for 6 months. Long term this share is only going one way. GLA
The Negativity from some people is is mad. Look at the actual facts, Its an on time drilling program, there fully funded, they have millions in the bank as per the last financial report, Heron has actually discovered oil, Flow tests are underway shortly, Gaz is being spudded, V raptor set to be spudded later in the year with HUGE potential and Red dear that was always a 50/50 punt in an unproven area turned out to not be viable. Wow, one negative to all the other positives and all of a sudden its doom and gloom. Please DYOR and trade your own game, but keep your negative comments to yourself.
Im certainly not panicking and my average is 6.4 on this occasion, been in and out lots of the past months, but im in for a sizable holding and im happy to hold. Why? Because they have already discovered oil, 5 meters shallower than anticipated. How much oil, i grant is yet to be determined, but it will be an ex-tractable amount regardless, just unknown for how long they can extract. If they need to have an manual intervention to pump to oil up, so be it, many many oil operators use this technique. I reckon its give MB and all his crew an opportunity to buy in now, release the good flow results and see 9p by end of Oct. GLA IMO DYOR
Onward and upwards, Red deer was always a low chance of success and worth 4mill punt for the company. Heron has discovered oil, just a question of how much and Gaz now progressing for a further oil discovery. Fantastic entry price, 15p by end of November IMO
Nice to see for the second day more buys than sells, a clear 350k buying pressure yesterday. 6.5p soon to be on cards. Not sure what peoples average is, but easily going to climb over next 2 weeks. Shame about red deer, but nothing any level headed investor didnt already expect. GLA bring on good flow tests.....
Im really tempted to just load up big time at these prices. So much news flow to come and Heron alone with a solid Flow test result would double where we currently are. Lots to look forward to hear. Ive got a healthy holding, but i honestly think this is going to flip 40% in a morning. GLA