Member Info for Morningsun

'would've thought we'd all have a say in that change of direction.'

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Marine, with such high level of posting you must have been around LSE for quite some time. I'm sure you can't be that naïve to expect to have a say in how the company is run with regards to business decisions, even strategic ones.

Although I do agree that the way AAOG has gone about all of this doesn't deserve any prizes (at all) I firmly believe that the management should be the ones driving the company. I therefore have to be confident (enough) that the management has the ability to deliver, which I am sufficiently in this case. If I wasn't I would not be investing. Have learned that lesson the hard way unfortunately.
MS

drilling and surveying/testing for gold/other minerals. How much more can a company do at the same time?!

As GH told us, GGP will only get involved in developments that have the potential to be a Tier 1 project. So, we are now drilling and testing/surveying on 4 projects that have that T1 potential: HV, BH, FT and now Panorama.

What a stellar company. What more can we ask for??

If only the SP would reflect more of that potential ….

MS

TT, this is exactly how GGP have done it. Do the first good drills and then bring in a major to do the hard work. They can do that hard bit much faster than we can ever do on our own.
MS

are doing very well according to Bloomberg TV this morning.

Saracen Minerals is up 7.85% they gave as an example of the momentum in the Australian market. Also Western Ausdtralian projects.

Bodes well for the sentiment here. This SP could do with some positiveness.

MS

Tiburn, isn't that all layed out in the JV agreement?

I agree that the current PoG doesn't directly affect the SP of GGP. It's the PoG at the time of production that counts.

It is just over USD 1,400 per Oz though.

MS

Haha PG, 'some day' soon. Very funny ;-)

And yes I've done the calc on revenue instead of EBITDA but it's the general direction of travel that counts.
MS

From Reddit??? The gossip channel?!
Some poor soul wrote about the sun setting in WA?

Really, this is somehow of value?

That 2,000 bbopd is worth USD 44 mln of which AAOG should get USD 24.5 mln or GBP 19 mln.
WIth 238 mln shares outstanding and a conservative multiple of 6 that would indicate a SP of 49p.

That is 7 times where we are now at 6.9.... Just a reminder.

Indeed, it all still has to happen but ONLY if there is nowhere near the 2,000 bbopd should we expect no rise from here.

MS

Well, I don't think I'm underestimating things. I might be overestimating the cash we have but don't think y too much either.
Time will tell who is right.

Not going to spend further time on this as no need to convince you as you have already made up your mind. Good for you.

MS

right Woody, so you can't really say I'm underestimating things then.

I have a fairly good understanding of the topside of things. That is relatively easy. If the djeno is surfacing under it's own pressure, all we need is some tanks (at 2,000 bbopd some 2*200 cbm will be enough but 2*1000 cbm would be better as caters for future but may be harder to get short term!), some piping, some controls, pumps and loading rack. Would one need a weighbridge out there? Maybe some venting/scrubbing equipment as it's oil. Surely you can get all that locally. USD 0.6 mln? I could look up the detail but should be more than enough.

The more vague for me is the 'well workover' as I'm not expecting we will drill into the djeno from 103. That is where the difference is maybe. That is where I refer to the resident experts here.

It won't be cheap but several mln seems to me very well achievable for us. SNPC already handed over USD3.2 mln and we had the 6 mln placing in Jan. We must have spent some of that indeed but I would expect at least half of that to be still available. With some payments coming our way and not paying for all works in advance I think we are there.

Again, happy to be corrected.

MS

JD, seems to me that the reported sells are indeed sells, based on the bid and ask prices at the time.

MS

OK Woody, I'll bite. What do you think the capex for the workover and the minimum topside installation to fill trucks will be then?

MS

DHC, you can't compare AAOG with SXX so the response to a placing there has nothing to do with a (unlikely) placing here even though it's all AIM. SXX have a very different set of issues to tackle.

However, we have been told AAOG will not do a placing and I think we don't need one for what we have to do initially. For teh long term developments there are other options. See my earlier post.

MS

That is uncharacteristically positive from you Tiburn.

Normally soo level headed.

All good ;-)

MS

In fact non of us know for sure as we are not driving the company.

However, your scenario seems unlikely, even though this is an AIM company as I have experienced all too often.

Yes development cost money, but we have money coming in. Surely we are not spending more than we are bringing in currently?!

I'm not saying its enough to do all the works needed for long-term production but it goes quite some way to do what we need to do and that is bring what we have into production now, the 2,000 bbopd indicated by DS. Would be highly surprised if we could not pay for that from the earnings we have and will get, especially as the resident experts on here say the workover is quite simple to get things into production and with tanks and a truck filling station initially we are on our way. Happy to be corrected if I'm way off with that analysis.

Anyway, for me the key is that DS did not place. When he did foresee running out of cash in the near future without any means to meet the future obligations he has an obligation as UK director to either call insolvency or raise funds. He didn't do either of those.

Surely he is not there to just run the clock down until the lights go out when you're sitting on the djeno oil OR the Mengo for that matter.

MS

Then Woody, why do you indicate that the company has run or will run out of cash? We are making (a little) money from oil and we are getting about USD700k per month from SNPC. That will last for a while yet.
DS had the option to place those 44mln shares but didn't so clearly he is NOT running out of cash OTHERWISE as a UK company director he had the obligation to place those shares (even if it's 'only 2 mln'), especially because he can't guarantee that he will get new mandate to issue at the next AGM. He didn't and therefore does not expect to run out of cash.

Sooo many people are negative here. I understand that if one is down on their investment, of course, but why stay invested then? Surely better to sell and leave this behind. True, the SP is not well (..) but if one doesn't sell one DOES believe that the SP will recover otherwise one is fooling theirself.. So why this negativity?? Beyond me.

MS

So, Tradedesk, it has now moved from getting finance for BP on the basis of the merits of BP to 'get the finance over the line on the basis of closing out with the ZCDC'.

Still the same old 'shifting tables'. Reminds me of turtles laying eggs. Afterwards they cover up so well that you can't for the life of you remember where they actually laid their eggs. Unless you put a stick in the sand and make sure you KNOW where they are so you don't get bamboozled by the spin.

Anyway, I sooo hope that the diamonds are actually true as it's soo hard to believe that after all lose promises it will actually happen. It's totally out of our control though and that is not a great position to be in. If it does it will indeed be transformational.

MS.

See, Tradedesk, that has always been the problem with VAST, someone 'speaking with the company' and revealing things that are not in the RNS'es or at the very least not as 'confident'.

Not saying you didn't speak to the company and got that feedback, but after all the problems we have had with AP and his podcasts promising things he never delivered they can't still be doing this!

MS.