Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Volatility works both ways and if you want to to be on this roller-coaster, you have to ride the drops as well as the ups. I think many of the recent new investors into the space didn't look at the historic graphs of PDN, FSY, CCJ ect. and comprehend just how volatile this sector can be. But those without conviction, who haven't done extensive research will likely get flushed out within this current pull-back/consolidation. Wouldn't be surprised to see the sector pull-back a little lower, but the trend is clear and more obvious to many with the spot price having moved so aggressively in the last month. Expecting this pull-back and future ones to be much shorter in duration as pull-backs from here on out will likely be brought into more aggressively.
Seeing through this volatility I am expecting $60 by the end of the year and wouldn't be surprised by $65/70 spot price by year end.
Yeah I am expecting less volatility in SPUT, but I think there is going to be huge volatility in the physical uranium spot market before year end. Wouldn't be surprised by $65/70 spot price by year end.
After a tedious and extended period of consolidation, XTR's chart is starting to look nicely primed for a good run. Really wouldn't be surprised by a quick run into the 5p range soon.
It is also important to remember that one of Sprotts primary goals will be to ensure the trust trades as close to NAV as possible to make it as attractive as possible to investors (particularly IIs). The recent 20-30% premium to NAV was an exception and likely a result of SPUT using up it's $300m ATM facility and waiting for the paperwork to complete to enable them to upsize the ATM to $1300m. During these few days it was unable to issue new units to absorb the buying and keep the premium to NAV to a few percent.
I think these few days gave the impression that SPUT would rise in an organic way, like most stocks, but in reality I can see the upwards movement only moving in a bumpy staircase manor, as the pricing of the underlying physical uranium changes and altars the NAV of the trust.
Great points made. The trading action of SPUT can be misleading when it is treading water, as Sprott will be absorbing all buying by issuing new units, bring money into SPUT for future purchases.
A much better indicator for how SPUT is trading I find is to watch the volumes instead of price action. If there is huge volume, SPUT is trading above NAV and price action is flat, you know that SPUT is issuing lots of units and bringing in big money into their trust. On good days like this the price can still move, but this most likely be when there is a change in the underlying price of physical uranium at which point the NAV will have changed and SPUT will now start to issue units at a price that reflects a premium to the new NAV value.
This is a very good take Tallchad. Big money will be positioning, if they hadn't already positioned over the summer correction. Dips will be opportunities for whales to accumulate the miners and physical. I think the writing is on the wall of where this market is going. There is too much money in the system and the uranium market is too small for a big investor not to jump onto the opportunity. Like you, I expect the physical market to get hit hard a little further down the line after said entities have accumulated all the shares of miners they can get their hands on.
YCA is definitely some of the best risk to reward on the market with no associated downside risk of permitting, operations, management that is associated with the miners. YCA is a pure commodity play and the downside risk to the potential upside is an excellent investment proposition.
Good call. I did find it strange that SPUT was trading at such a high premium vs YCA as it is easy money for someone to arb the two. But I guess it can take time for the difference to equilibrate in the market, especially with the volatility that there is right now.
If this drops any lower, I will be selling some uranium stocks to back the truck up here.
Really great podcast from Collin. I can feel his frustration that the market is sleeping on the Xtract portfolio of assets, any one of which justifies a substantial part of our market cap. But the market will recognise value, sometimes it just takes time or a catalyst and luckily for us shareholders, there are plenty of catalysts for a re-rate due in Q4.
Nice to see today's Crux interview with Empress Royalty saying that Manica is on target for starting revenue Q4 (13 mins in).
link: https://youtu.be/B54A_w1C0J4?t=775
Spot price is 4225/4275 with the mid point price between bid and ask at $42.50 / lb.
Never thought I would see the day when YCA is on the top risers board. That is bound to generate some interest by UK PIs, who for the most part are still sleeping on the uranium opportunity.
Any guesses for where we open? I think circa £3.35 open is on the cards and it could close substantially higher than this. The ASX just had an explosive Monday with the majority of uranium stocks docking double digit gains.
link: https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1436356367481147399
Sprott has announced that it has raised the ATM limit from US$300M to US$1.3 Billion. That's an additional $1 Billion available for its At-the-Market facility to raise funds for buying more physical uranium. SPUT/U.UN is currently 18.6% up. It will be a very interesting open on Monday morning for YCA.
Big move in copper today up +4%. The chart is starting to look really attractive after the consolidation period since the ATH in May this year. Even with copper at ATHs, there is still huge demand for the metal and we may see a move up to break the wedge and make an attempt at the ATH in the next few months.
Another one. We used to be lucky to get one good article every few months, now we have handfuls in a week. Tides are turning.
- 10th sep - https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/energy/603830/uranium-price-rise-nuclear-power
Missed this article
9th sep - https://www.barrons.com/articles/uranium-is-a-winner-as-climate-change-boosts-nuclear-power-51631204868
Not to mention that the amount of people searching for "uranium price" through Google is is starting to spike to historic levels.
link: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=uranium%20price