Member Info for morefondle

Given that the RNS of 3 Aug stated that the Portland achieved a 'Stable implied daily pumped rates of 401 and 414 bopd of dry 36 API oil were recorded over two periods of 6 and 2 hours, respectively, with associated maximum half hourly pumped rates of 441 and 470 bopd.' And given that prior to starting the current prolonged phase of flow testing more of the Portland was perforated and that SS has publicly stated that the Portland could be declared commercial at 50 to 60 BPOD. With oil at $70 per barrel (currently $76) and production costs of $20 per barrel. Does anyone think the Portland will not be declared commercial?

Further given that the combined Kimmeridge layers have flowed in excess of 1600 BOPD and the majority of their production cost would be covered by the Portland. Does anyone think the Kimmeridge layers will not be declared commercial? All IMHO of course.

I know that nothing in the oil industry is 'nailed on' or guaranteed but if you think we are not going to get those declarations please say so and your reasons for thinking this.

Swimming when you say "....cant(sic) be flowing as much as predicted"

Could you refresh my memory about how much has been predicted for the Portland. I am aware of previous flow rates. I know that SS has said that the Portland would be commercial at 50 to 60 BPOD but I am not aware of any other predictions. Any clarification would be most helpful.

For those fretting about the frequency of tankers and the implication this has for the amount of oil being produced from the Portland layer I offer these extracts from the Portland Extended Flow Test RNS in July

'Although we are in the very early stages of our 150-day test campaign at Horse Hill, the signs to date are extremely positive for the Portland oil pool. The unexpected bonus of natural oil flow to the surface, without the use of a pump, gives us cause for further optimism regarding the Portland's overall commercial potential.'

'The long-term reservoir performance data is also expected to provide the necessary data to enable, for the first time, Petroleum Resources Management System compliant Kimmeridge and Portland reserve figures to be estimated at Horse Hill.'

This to my mind is what the EWT is all about and 3 or four tankers a day, although very nice and earning a several 10's of thousands of dollars, in the scheme of things, will not have much of an effect on the SP. What will drive the SP up very rapidly will be a declaration of commerciality backed up by industry recognised reserve figures?

Will this come to pass? Well, I do not have the detailed knowledge or inside information to make that prediction. All I can do, just as anyone else can do, is look at the current EWT on the Portland and note that every time a change has been made the amount of oil produced has increased. If this trend were to continue through the EWT for the Kimmeridge layers then IMVHO the sky is the limit but my best guess is that the big boys will be trying to muscle in long before we get to the end of the Kimmeridge.

This is not intended to be a ramp just my opinion based on what we know so far. If you think I am wrong please feel free to contradict me but please qualify your opinion in light of the information I have given above.

Swampys, Trolls, Dipsticks and Derampers(STDD). I am having a bit of a problem with the great earthquake panic and I was wondering if you could clear things up for me.

Prio to the recent and very suspect report being published the perceived wisdom of the STDDs was that there was little or no oil under the Weald and even if there was it would never ever be extracted in commercial quantities.

Now, notwithstanding the fact that HH was only producing oil when one of the 12 earthquakes happened, apparently we are now producing so much oil that the whole of the SE of England will collapse into the sea due to an oil-induced earthquake.

So I hope you can see my problem. Either there is oil or there isn't. You can't have your cake and eat it. So would you all get your brain cells together in the hope that by so doing you can at least form a halfwit and try to come up with an answer to this paradox?

JayKay1 you make a very good point as these totals from MoneyAM clearly indicate.

Date Buy vol Sell Vol Total Vol
31/07/2018 25,129,029 13,744,372 38,873,401
30/07/2018 42,711,092 30,861,574 73,572,666
27/07/2018 63,306,538 51,063,303 114,369,841
26/07/2018 123,639,850 99,412,348 223,052,198
25/07/2018 46,960,538 37,156,495 84,117,033

Obviously more buys than sells indicate selling pressure......... Hmmm \i might have to rethink that one.

Argus1 other posters on this BB say that that pump produces 60 litres per stroke. There are 159lts of oil in a barrel. So how many barrels of oil a day do you reckon?

Nookie who is supposed to be at HH counting the tankers?

Yanis2005 you say at the end of your post;

'There are three sequences referenced above and optimisation will be done in the first sequence.'

Yet you have quoted the RNS which states, 'The first test sequence will likely include an optimised maximum rate test'.

The key word here being 'likely'. How does 'likely' become 'will be done'?

Why are the Swampys, Dipsticks, Trolls and Derampers that spend their lives spouting their drivel here suggesting that Pboo and the other two guys are watching HH 24/7 when they have clearly stated on more than one occasion that they only visit the site as and when their jobs and other responsibilities allow them to?

So there is a possibility they could have missed some tankers. However this wouldn't suit the agenda of these bottom-dwelling pond life so they prefer to malign people who are providing some hard info.

Pboo I have said it before but it is worth saying again. Thanks for all your good work and don't bother justifying what you and the others do to the Swampys, Dipsticks, Trolls and Derampers that spend their lives spouting their drivel on LSE.

Pboo don't pander to the infantile dipstick Newbie. If he/she/it is so certain that those photos' and photoshopped let them get their backside down to HH and take their own.

Not that I would condone violence but if they should accidentally, nudge nudge, come into contact with the tip of your boot then I am sure we would all understand.

In relation to today's earthquake story The Express is quoting the British Geological Survey with the Following:

They said: "Earthquakes with magnitudes of 2.7, 2.6 and 2.4 ML were detected by BGS on April 1, June 27 and June 29 2018, respectively, near Newdigate, Surrey, between Dorking and Crawley. The earthquakes were felt by local residents of Newdigate, Charlwood, Dorking and Crawley. Three smaller earthquakes with magnitudes of 1.8, 1.7 and 1.5 ML were also detected in the same location.

"We are unable to say categorically if these earthquakes are related to hydrocarbon exploration or production in the Weald, mainly because of the uncertainties in our estimates of the earthquake epicentres and depths. We use a process a bit like triangulation to locate earthquakes and our closest monitoring station was over 50 km away, so the errors in our location estimates are several kilometres. Our calculated epicentres for the earthquakes are approximately 4.5 km from the Horse Hill well, which is within our calculated uncertainty.

"We contacted the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) on 28 June and they informed us that although UKOG plc made an announcement about flow testing at Horse Hill and the necessary equipment is on site, the flow testing has not yet been carried out. OGA are the regulatory body for oil and gas explorations and production in the UK.

"While it is well known that hydrocarbon exploration and production can result in man-made or "induced" earthquakes, such events usually result from either long term hydrocarbon extraction, or the injection of fluids (e.g. hydraulic fracturing) during production. It seems unlikely that flow testing, even if it had taken place, would result in induced seismicity.

"Although there have been no other instrumentally recorded events in the region in the last 50 years, there is evidence for historical earthquakes in the last 500 years, therefore a natural origin for these earthquakes can't be ruled out at this stage."

Hyraides you said, "No sign of a REAL petrol tanker leaving the site..."

Now a petrol tanker leaving Horse Hill would really be a novelty and such a thing would turn the worldwide oil industry on its head.

However, a tanker carrying crude oil, on the other hand, would be entirely normal and confirmation of what has happened in the past.

The cause of the earthquake is beginning to come in to doubt. Rather than natural causes, it is possible that the tremor was caused by the Trolls, Dipsticks, Swampys, and Derampers stamping their little feet in a temper tantrum because the Gatwick Gusher is going to flow again. All IMHO of course.

Andy are you on the wrong Bulletin Board here? Shouldn't you be on the MSMN board bossing people about? However, loving the change of name.

BTW whatever you do don't mention the purple diamonds.

Sapphire only one correct out of three on the Brexit forecast I am afraid. Yes, the Remainians forecast financial Armageddon if the country voted for Brexit in much the same way that they forecast dire financial penalties if the UK did not join the Euro Zone.

However, they did not promise an outbreak of the plague. It was actually a plague of frogs that was prophesied.

Further, it was a comet, not a meteorite that would fall upon us.

Sorry to be pedantic but it it is best to get these things correct.

What sort of pole are we talking about here? A Maypole, a Fireman's pole or a pole that scantily dressed young ladies dance around?

this was the on to buy.

I would visit this BB several times a day and enjoy the informative banter. Over time the Trolls, Swampys, Dipsticks and Derampers became increasingly loud drowning out sensible debate. Like many others, I moved to other media and stopped looking in here. However, I had a query about the use of pipelines and thought I would risk it and ask the question here. Was I right to do so? Well just look back over the last few posts and you will see that the Trolls, Swampys, Dipsticks and Derampers are still squabbling amongst themselves and shouting down reasonable people. So that's me off to more reasonable media platforms and for you pondlife, in the words of the dear departed Brucie, "Keeeeep squabbling!!!"

in the Twittersphere at the moment about using the ESSO pipeline from Fawley. This pipeline delivers jet fuel from Fawley to Heathrow with a spur to supply Gatwick. I understand how different types of liquid can be sent through the pipeline separated by a plug called a pig. Does this mean that if UKOG were to use this pipeline to deliver crude to Fawley a pipeline full of jet fuel would be pushed back to Fawley? Plus when they wanted to deliver jet fuel a pipeline full of crude would be pushed back to HH. Is there anyone with direct knowledge or experience of how pipelines work who could advise on if this is possible or indeed practical. Contrary to what is being hinted at onTwitter I am not a Swampy. A fallback accusation for some people.